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Statistical Methods For Environmental Pollution Monitoring

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

Climatic or regionally induced by humans? Tracing hydro-climatic and land-use changes to better understand the Lake Urmia tragedy

This article reviews recent literature on drought of the last millennium, followed by an update on global aridity changes from 1950 to 2008. Projected future aridity is presented based on recent studies and our analysis of model simulations. Dry periods lasting for years to decades have occurred many times during the last millennium over, for example, North America, West Africa, and East Asia. These droughts were likely triggered by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs), with La Ni˜ na-like SST anomalies leading to drought in North America, and El-Ni˜ no-like SSTs causing drought in East China. Over Africa, the southward shift of the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic and warming in the Indian Ocean are responsible for the recent Sahel droughts. Local feedbacks may enhance and prolong drought. Global aridity has increased substantially since the 1970s due to recent drying over Africa, southern Europe, East and South Asia, and eastern Australia. Although El Ni˜ no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), tropical Atlantic SSTs, and Asian monsoons have played a large role in the recent drying, recent warming has increased atmospheric moisture demand and likely altered atmospheric circulation patterns, both contributing to the drying. Climate models project increased aridity in the 21 st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Regions like the United States have avoided prolonged droughts during the last 50 years due to natural climate variations, but might see persistent droughts in the next 20–50 years. Future efforts to predict drought will depend on models’ ability to predict tropical SSTs. 2010 JohnWiley &Sons,Ltd.WIREs Clim Change2010 DOI:10.1002/wcc.81

Drought under Global Warming: A Review

Reducing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and identifying pathways towards drought resilient societies remains a global priority. A common understanding of the drivers of drought risk and ways in which drought impacts materialize is crucial for improved assessments and for the identification and (spatial) planning of targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed an increase in drought risk assessments across spatial and temporal scales drawing on a multitude of conceptual foundations and methodological approaches. Recognizing the diversity of approaches in science and practice as well as the associated opportunities and challenges, we present the outcomes of a systematic literature review of the state of the art of people-centered drought vulnerability and risk conceptualization and assessments, and identify persisting gaps. Our analysis shows that, of the reviewed assessments, (i) more than 60% do not explicitly specify the type of drought hazard that is addressed, (ii) 42% do not provide a clear definition of drought risk, (iii) 62% apply static, index-based approaches, (iv) 57% of the indicator-based assessments do not specify their weighting methods, (v) only 11% conduct any form of validation, (vi) only ten percent develop future scenarios of drought risk, and (vii) only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk reduction or adaptation strategies, i.e. consider solutions. We discuss the challenges associated with these findings for both assessment and identification of drought risk reduction measures and identify research needs to inform future research and policy agendas in order to advance the understanding of drought risk and support pathways towards more drought resilient societies.

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Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda

There are numerous drought indicators used by decision makers all around the globe which have been developed to fulfill specific needs. By far, risks associated with drought and related consequences have become a bold topic for scientists in which debates still taking place everywhere. No global drought indices could provide universally accepted results since almost all of these indices are based on observed data as key performance indicators. In this respect, researchers spend a lot of effort on this issue for a better understanding on the various indices which are proposed until now. It is crucial to get a better sense on how drought can develop and how it can be monitored. It is also important to understand that, recent global challenges like climate change also amplifies the obligation on continues effort toward developing better indicators and methods to monitor droughts. As climate patterns change or a seasonal shift occurs, predefined drought indicators become useless. In this review, the concepts of drought indices and indicators are revisited and evaluated. Pros and cons of frequently used indices are addressed and the major differences between them are bolded. It is concluded that each index is applicable to fulfill expectations of a specific drought type while pre-knowledge about each case is very crucial. However, there is a need to develop a composite drought index to integrate all relevant data and drought definitions, with respect to the dominant types of monthly droughts in time and space together with climate change scenarios.

Drought indices and indicators revisited

This study investigates the main characteristics (duration, severity, and trend) of meteorological drought events over Ankara Province, Turkey. We used 46 years of observed monthly precipitation and temperature series from six meteorological stations distributed across the study area to derive the well-known meteorological drought indices; the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) both in 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. A comparative analysis between the indices, associated drought events, and potential trends at each station are presented. To explore the drought trends in each station, the well-documented Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient, innovative Sen’s method, and innovative trend analysis are applied. The results showed that the province faced five extreme drought events during the period of 1971–2016, although temporal inconsistencies between the SPI and SPEI, particularly in 6- and 12-month timescales exist. Considering the SPEI, the results indicated a slight descending trend in the observed drought events; however, the SPI does not conform to the same pattern.

Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey

Department of Civil Engineering, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, Turkey Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey Correspondence Hafzullah Aksoy, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey. Email: haksoy@itu.edu.tr Funding information Scientific Research Unit of Istanbul Technical University, Grant/Award Number: BAP 39016

Interaction of groundwater with Lake Urmia in Iran

Field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) are two important properties of the soil when the soil moisture is concerned. Since the determination of these parameters is expensive and time-consuming, this study aims to develop and evaluate a new hybrid of artificial neural network model coupled with a whale optimization algorithm (ANN-WOA) as a meta-heuristic optimization tool in defining the FC and the PWP at the basin scale. The simulated results were also compared with other core optimization models of ANN and multilinear regression (MLR). For this aim, a set of 217 soil samples were taken from different regions located across the West and East Azerbaijan provinces in Iran, partially covering four important basins of Lake Urmia, Caspian Sea, Persian Gulf-Oman Sea, and Central-Basin of Iran. Taken samples included portion of clay, sand, and silt together with organic matter, which were used as independent variables to define the FC and the PWP. A 80–20 portion of the randomly selected independent and dependent variable sets were used in calibration and validation of the predefined models. The most accurate predictions for the FC and PWP at the selected stations were obtained by the hybrid ANN-WOA models, and evaluation criteria at the validation phases were obtained as 2.87%, 0.92, and 2.11% respectively for RMSE, R2, and RRMSE for the FC, and 1.78%, 0.92, and 10.02% respectively for RMSE, R2, and RRMSE for the PWP. It is concluded that the organic matter is the most important variable in prediction of FC and PWP, while the proposed ANN-WOA model is an efficient approach in defining the FC and the PWP at the basin scale.

Application of hybrid ANN-whale optimization model in evaluation of the field capacity and the permanent wilting point of the soils.

Precipitation as the main process that brings evaporated water from the oceans to the land’s surface is a critical role player in Lake Urmia basin (Iran). As a hyper-saline lake declared as UNESCO’s biosphere reserve in Ramsar Convention, it is dealing with gradual atrophy. In this study, characteristics of annual precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin are investigated by means of several statistical measures and tests. Data in 53 meteorological stations widespread across the basin for a period of 31 years from 1981 to 2011 are considered for analysis. Fundamental statistical characteristics of the data like mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, auto-correlation and cross-correlation coefficients of the annual precipitation are calculated. Entropy in each station is also calculated with respect to the long-run mean precipitation of the basin. Results of the analysis are plotted in contour maps. Several tests for consistency, randomness, trend and best-fit probability distribution function are applied to investigate characteristics of the annual precipitation. Heterogeneity and dependence on local conditions are the main results revealed by this study while consistency and dependency of precipitation on North West and West of the basin are considered as the most effective among other regions. Due to the North-South oriented mountains, a relatively sharp decline in the precipitation from West to East can be compared to the gradual decline in precipitation from North to South due to smooth change in the terrain. It is also seen that such characteristics as probability distribution, consistency, randomness, trend, and uncertainty of annual precipitation in the Lake Urmia basin become more complex as crossing from West to East than crossing from North to South on the basin.

Babak Vaheddoost

Papers

Drought indices and indicators revisited

Identification of the trends associated with the SPI and SPEI indices across Ankara, Turkey

Interaction of groundwater with Lake Urmia in Iran

Application of hybrid ANN-whale optimization model in evaluation of the field capacity and the permanent wilting point of the soils.

Structural characteristics of annual precipitation in Lake Urmia basin