There is, I think, something ethereal about i —the square root of minus one. I remember first hearing about it at school. It seemed an odd beast at that time—an intruder hovering on the edge of reality.

Usually familiarity dulls this sense of the bizarre, but in the case of i it was the reverse: over the years the sense of its surreal nature intensified. It seemed that it was impossible to write mathematics that described the real world in …

I and i

Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Deposits of clastic carbonate-dominated (calciclastic) sedimentary slope systems in the rock record have been identified mostly as linearly-consistent carbonate apron deposits, even though most ancient clastic carbonate slope deposits fit the submarine fan systems better. Calciclastic submarine fans are consequently rarely described and are poorly understood. Subsequently, very little is known especially in mud-dominated calciclastic submarine fan systems. Presented in this study are a sedimentological core and petrographic characterisation of samples from eleven boreholes from the Lower Carboniferous of Bowland Basin (Northwest England) that reveals a >250 m thick calciturbidite complex deposited in a calciclastic submarine fan setting. Seven facies are recognised from core and thin section characterisation and are grouped into three carbonate turbidite sequences. They include: 1) Calciturbidites, comprising mostly of highto low-density, wavy-laminated bioclast-rich facies; 2) low-density densite mudstones which are characterised by planar laminated and unlaminated muddominated facies; and 3) Calcidebrites which are muddy or hyper-concentrated debrisflow deposits occurring as poorly-sorted, chaotic, mud-supported floatstones. These

Phd by thesis

The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction, 4th edn. By C. Chatfield. ISBN 0 412 31820 2. Chapman and Hall, London, 1989. 242 pp. £13.50.

The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction

This comprehensive textbook presents a clean and coherent account of most fundamental tools and techniques in Parameterized Algorithms and is a self-contained guide to the area. The book covers many of the recent developments of the field, including application of important separators, branching based on linear programming, Cut & Count to obtain faster algorithms on tree decompositions, algorithms based on representative families of matroids, and use of the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis. A number of older results are revisited and explained in a modern and didactic way. The book provides a toolbox of algorithmic techniques. Part I is an overview of basic techniques, each chapter discussing a certain algorithmic paradigm. The material covered in this part can be used for an introductory course on fixed-parameter tractability. Part II discusses more advanced and specialized algorithmic ideas, bringing the reader to the cutting edge of current research. Part III presents complexity results and lower bounds, giving negative evidence by way of W[1]-hardness, the Exponential Time Hypothesis, and kernelization lower bounds. All the results and concepts are introduced at a level accessible to graduate students and advanced undergraduate students. Every chapter is accompanied by exercises, many with hints, while the bibliographic notes point to original publications and related work.

Parameterized Algorithms

Policy making is an extremely complex process occurring in changing environments and affecting the three pillars of sustainable development: society, economy and the environment. Each political decision in fact implies some form of social reactions, it affects economic and financial aspects and has substantial environmental impacts. Improving decision making in this context could have a huge beneficial impact on all these aspects. There are a number of Artificial Intelligence techniques that could play an important role in improving the policy making process such as decision support and optimization techniques, game theory, data and opinion mining and agent-based simulation. We outline here some potential use of AI technology as it emerged by the European Union (EU) EU FP7 project ePolicy: Engineering the Policy Making Life-Cycle, and we identify some potential research challenges.

/pdf/sustainable-policy-making-a-strategic-challenge-for-3schkoyrah.pdf

Sustainable Policy Making: A Strategic Challenge for Artificial Intelligence

Constraining how information may flow within a system is at the heart of many protection mechanisms and many security policies have direct interpretations in terms of information flow and multilevel security style controls. However, while conceptually simple, multilevel security controls have been difficult to achieve in practice. In this paper we explore how the traditional assurance measures that are used in the network multilevel security model can be re-interpreted and generalised to provide the basis of a framework for reasoning about the quality of protection provided by a secure system configuration.

/pdf/multilevel-security-and-quality-of-protection-539gzzg3j5.pdf

Multilevel Security and Quality of Protection

Integer partitions may be encoded as either ascending or descending compositions for the purposes of systematic generation. Many algorithms exist to generate all descending compositions, yet none have previously been published to generate all ascending compositions. We develop three new algorithms to generate all ascending compositions and compare these with descending composition generators from the literature. We analyse the new algorithms and provide new and more precise analyses for the descending composition generators. In each case, the ascending composition generation algorithm is substantially more efficient than its descending composition counterpart. We develop a new formula for the partition function p(n) as part of our analysis of the lexicographic succession rule for ascending compositions.

Generating All Partitions: A Comparison Of Two Encodings

The heavy-tailed phenomenon that characterises the runtime distributions of backtrack search procedures has received considerable attention over the past few years. Some have conjectured that heavy-tailed behaviour is largely due to the characteristics of the algorithm used. Others have conjectured that problem structure is a significant contributor. In this paper we attempt to explore the former hypothesis, namely we study how variable and value ordering heuristics impact the heavy-tailedness of runtime distributions of backtrack search procedures. We demonstrate that heavy-tailed behaviour can be eliminated from particular classes of random problems by carefully selecting the search heuristics, even when using chronological backtrack search. We also show that combinations of good search heuristics can eliminate heavy tails from Quasigroups with Holes of order 10, and give some insights into why this is the case. These results motivate a more detailed analysis of the effects that variable and value ordering can have on heavy-tailedness. We show how combinations of variable and value ordering heuristics can result in a runtime distribution being inherently heavy-tailed. Specifically, we show that even if we were to use an Oracle to refute insoluble subtrees optimally, for some combinations of heuristics we would still observe heavy-tailed behaviour. Finally, we study the distributions of refutation sizes found using different combinations of heuristics and gain some further insights into what characteristics tend to give rise to heavy-tailed behaviour.

Search heuristics and heavy-tailed behaviour

Super solutions to constraint programs guarantee that if a limited number of variables lose their values, repair solutions can be found by modifying a bounded number of assignments. However, in many application domains the classical super solutions framework is not expressive enough since it only reasons about the number of breaks in a solution and the number of changes that are necessary to find a repair. For example, in combinatorial auctions we may wish to guarantee that we can always find a repair solution whose revenue exceeds some threshold while limiting the cost associated with forming such a repair. In this paper we present the weighted super solution framework that involves two important extensions. Firstly, the set of variables that may lose their values is determined using a probabilistic approach enabling us to find repair solutions for assignments that are most likely to fail. Secondly, we include a mechanism for reasoning about the cost of repair. The proposed framework has been successfully used to find robust solutions to combinatorial auctions.

/pdf/weighted-super-solutions-for-constraint-programs-y4vsfw7znj.pdf

Barry O'Sullivan

Papers

Sustainable Policy Making: A Strategic Challenge for Artificial Intelligence

Multilevel Security and Quality of Protection

Generating All Partitions: A Comparison Of Two Encodings

Search heuristics and heavy-tailed behaviour

Weighted super solutions for constraint programs