The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2013, Pages 179–200 as as Deposit insurance, banking crises, and market discipline: Evidence from a natural experiment on deposit flows and rates

Deposit Insurance, Banking Crises, and Market Discipline: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Deposit Flows and Rates

This paper takes stock of the current state of banking systems across Sub-Saharan Africa and discusses recent developments including innovations that might help Africa leapfrog more traditional banking models. Using an array of different data, the paper documents that African banking systems are shallow but stable. African banks are well capitalized and over-liquid, but lend less to the private sector than banks in non-African developing countries. African enterprises and households are less likely to use financial services than their peers in other developing countries. The paper also describes a number of financial innovations across the continent that can help overcome different barriers to financial inclusion and have helped to expand the bankable and the banked population.

Banking in Africa

This study examines the effect of financial inclusion on poverty and vulnerability to poverty of Ghanaian households. Using data extracted from the seventh round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey in 2016/17, a multiple correspondence analysis is employed to generate a financial inclusion index, and three-stage feasible least squares is used to estimate households’ vulnerability to poverty. Endogeneity associated with financial inclusion is resolved using distance to the nearest bank as an instrument in an instrumental variables probit technique. Results showed that while 23.4% of Ghanaians are considered poor, about 51% are vulnerable to poverty. We found that an increase in financial inclusion has two effects on household poverty. First, it is associated with a decline in a household’s likelihood of being poor by 27%. Second, it prevents a household’s exposure to future poverty by 28%. Female-headed households have a greater chance of experiencing a larger reduction in poverty and vulnerability to poverty through enhanced financial inclusion than do male-headed households. Furthermore, financial inclusion reduces poverty and vulnerability to poverty more in rural than in urban areas. Governments are encouraged to design or enhance policies that provide an enabling environment for the private sector to innovate and expand financial services to more distant places. Government investment in, and regulation of, the mobile money industry will be a necessary step to enhancing financial inclusion in developing countries.

Effect of Financial Inclusion on Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty: Evidence Using a Multidimensional Measure of Financial Inclusion

Nighttime lights, calculated from weather satellite recordings, are increasingly used by social scientists as a proxy for economic activity or economic development in subnational regions of developing countries where disaggregated data from statistical offices are not available. However, so far, our understanding of what nighttime lights capture in these countries is limited. We use geo-referenced Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 29 African countries to construct indicators of household wealth, education and health for DHS cluster locations as well as for grid cells of roughly 50 × 50 km. We show that nighttime lights are positively associated with these location-specific indicators of human development, and that the variation in nighttime lights can explain a substantial share in the variation in these indicators. We conclude that nighttime lights are a good proxy for human development at the local level.

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Nighttime lights as a proxy for human development at the local level.

We examine how the geographical proximity to a new microfinance bank branch affects the use of bank accounts by low-income households. We study the expansion of the branch network of ProCredit banks in South-East Europe between 2006 and 2010. The analysis is based on household-level survey data and bank-branch location data which are matched on geographic coordinates. We control for trends in local economic activity with satellite data on night light intensity. We report three main findings: First, ProCredit is more likely to open a new branch in areas with a large share of low-income households. Second, in locations where ProCredit opens a new branch the share of banked households increases more than in locations where it does not open a new branch. Third, the impact of a new ProCredit branch on the use of bank accounts is stronger among low- and middle-income households than among high-income households, but also among older households which rely on transfer income. Our results suggest that microfinance banks can promote financial inclusion even in emerging markets which are well served by retail banks.

/pdf/microfinance-banks-and-financial-inclusion-114s9jdaub.pdf

Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion

We examine how the geographical proximity to a microfinance bank affects financial inclusion. We study the expansion of the branch network of ProCredit banks in South-East Europe between 2006 and 2010. We report three main findings: First, ProCredit is more likely to open a new branch in areas with a large share of low-income households. Second, in locations where ProCredit opens a new branch the share of banked households increases more than in locations where it does not open a new branch. Third, this increase is particularly strong among low-income households, older households, and households which rely on transfer income.

/pdf/microfinance-banks-and-financial-inclusion-4rcgwx9mbj.pdf

We study retail deposit withdrawals from European commercial banks which incurred investment losses in the wake of the U.S. subprime crisis. We document a strong propensity of households to withdraw deposits from distressed banks, especially when a bank receives a public bailout. However, the withdrawal risk for a distressed bank is mitigated by strong bank-client relationships and household-level switching costs: Households which rely on a single deposit account, which do not live close to a non-distressed bank, or which maintain a credit relationship with a distressed bank are significantly less likely to withdraw deposits. Our findings provide empirical support to the Basel III liquidity regulations which emphasize the role of well- established client relationships for the stability of bank funding.

Deposit Withdrawals from Distressed Commercial Banks

This paper examines the role of culture in households’ saving decisions. Exploiting the historical language borders within Switzerland, I isolate the effect of households’ exposure to certain cultural groups from economic, institutional, demographic and geographic factors for a homogeneous and representative sample of households. The analysis uses the Swiss Household Panel which I complement with geographic and socio-economic data. I show that low- and middle-income households located in the German-speaking part are more than 12 percentage points more likely to save than similar households in the French-speaking part. I show that these differences across language regions are consistent both with different distributions of time preferences, and norms of obtaining formal and informal consumer credit during times of financial distress.

/pdf/culture-and-household-saving-uwnv2hm8xo.pdf

Benjamin Guin

Papers

Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion

Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion

Deposit Withdrawals from Distressed Commercial Banks

Culture and Household Saving

High water, no marks? Biased lending after extreme weather