This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade � 1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species’ phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding

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European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

The effects of observed and future changes in climate are spatially and socially differentiated. The impacts of future changes will be felt particularly by resource-dependent communities through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social systems. Given that the world is increasingly faced with risks of climate change that are at the boundaries of human experience3, there is an urgent need to learn from past and present adaptation strategies to understand both the processes by which adaptation takes place and the limitations of the various agents of change – states, markets, and civil society – in these processes. Societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change. In this article, I argue that these capacities are bound up in their ability to act collectively.

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Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change

Aim Our scientific understanding of the extent and distribution of mangrove forests of the world is inadequate. The available global mangrove databases, compiled using disparate geospatial data sources and national statistics, need to be improved.Here,we mapped the status and distributions of global mangroves using recently available Global Land Survey (GLS) data and the Landsat archive. Methods We interpreted approximately 1000 Landsat scenes using hybrid supervised and unsupervised digital image classification techniques. Each image was normalized for variation in solar angle and earth‐sun distance by converting the digital number values to the top-of-the-atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and databases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. Results were validated using existing GIS data and the published literature to map ‘true mangroves’. Results The total area of mangroves in the year 2000 was 137,760 km 2 in 118 countries and territories in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Approximately 75% of world’s mangroves are found in just 15 countries, and only 6.9% are protected under the existing protected areas network (IUCN I-IV). Our study confirms earlier findings that the biogeographic distribution of mangroves is generallyconfinedtothetropicalandsubtropicalregionsandthelargestpercentage of mangroves is found between 5° N and 5° S latitude. Main conclusions We report that the remaining area of mangrove forest in the world is less than previously thought. Our estimate is 12.3% smaller than the most recent estimate by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.We present the most comprehensive, globally consistent and highest resolution (30 m) global mangrove database ever created.We developed and used better mapping techniques and data sources and mapped mangroves with better spatial and thematic details than previous studies.

http://faculty.jsd.claremont.edu/dmcfarlane/bio176mcfarlane/pdf%20papers/world%20mangrove%20distribution.pdf

Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data

This paper reports on the barriers that members of the UKpublic perceive to engaging with climatechange. It draws upon three mixed-method studies, with an emphasis on the qualitative data which offer an in-depth insight into how people make sense of climatechange. The paper defines engagement as an individual's state, comprising three elements: cognitive, affective and behavioural. A number of common barriers emerge from the three studies, which operate broadly at ‘individual’ and ‘social’ levels. These major constraints to individual engagement with climatechange have implications for achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gases in the UK. We argue that targeted and tailored information provision should be supported by wider structural change to enable citizens and communities to reduce their carbon dependency. Policyimplications for effective engagement are discussed.

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Barriers perceived to engaging with climate change among the UK public and their policy implications

Summary for Policymakers

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has served as a landmark document to influence humanity’s battle against climate change. It was the AR4 that first declared that there is a “very high confidence” that “the global average net effect of human activities” since the industrial revolution “has been one of warming”, and that warming of the climate system is by now “unequivocal”(IPCC 2007a). In addition, it established that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures in the last five decades is very likely due to anthropogenic influence, i.e. to the observed human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Depending on the rate of change in greenhouse gas emissions, global mean temperature will continue to rise between 1°C and 6°C as compared to 1990–2000 levels (IPCC 2007a). The IPCC AR4 and several other studies published thereafter have clearly demonstrated that with warming of several degrees above current levels, dramatic ecological, agricultural, economic and social damages will be happening (IPCC 2007b; SEG 2007; Stern 2006). The AR4 has identified the emission reductions needed to stabilize warming at certain levels (Fig. 1, IPCC 2007c). The figure demonstrates that in order to cap warming at a level such as the one defined by the European Union and the UN Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change (European Commission 2007; SEG 2007), i.e. at 2 C above pre-industrial levels, the task is huge. In order to stay below this temperature level, global CO2 emissions will need to peak before 2015, and they will need to be reduced by 50–85% of their 2000 levels by 2050 (see Fig. 1), as compared to the 25–90% increase projected for 2030 if no further climate measures are taken (IPCC 2007c). Even to meet a 2.4–2.8°C warming target level, they still need to be reduced by 30–60%. When one considers the significant challenges governments have gone through in order to meet their 0–8% reduction targets as mandated by the Kyoto Protocol, reductions in the order of 50–85% seem undoable at first sight. However, another very important finding of the Fourth Assessment report is that “the range of stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and those that are expected to be commercialized in coming decades”. The reason is that over a period of 40 years replacing the existing energy supply infrastructure with low carbon energy sources and a large part of the transportation system, building stock and industrial equipment with highly efficient alternatives is feasible, while short term changes are much more difficult Energy Efficiency (2009) 2:87–94 DOI 10.1007/s12053-009-9049-7

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Energy efficiency: how far does it get us in controlling climate change?

This is Part II of a Special Issue of “Energy Efficiency” on the role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation. The first volume titled “Energy Efficiency: How Far Does It Get Us in Controlling Climate Change?” appeared as issue 2 of volume 2 of Energy Efficiency (Urge-Vorsatz and Metz 2009a). The editorial of that issue (Urge-Vorsatz and Metz 2009b) describes in detail the aims and the process of the Special Issue. The present editorial shortly revisits and summarizes this, introduces the contents of Part II, and highlights some key issues discussed in the papers of this volume. Aims of the Special Issue

Energy efficiency revisited: how far does it get us in controlling climate change? Editorial for Part II of the Special Issue

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in knowledge.

2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

Bert Metz

Papers

Summary for Policymakers

Energy efficiency: how far does it get us in controlling climate change?

Energy efficiency revisited: how far does it get us in controlling climate change? Editorial for Part II of the Special Issue