The Random Character of Stock Market Prices.

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. With the high productivity in the machine learning area applied to the prediction of financial market prices, objective methods are required for a consistent analysis of the most relevant bibliography on the subject. This article proposes the use of bibliographic survey techniques that highlight the most important texts for an area of research. Specifically, these techniques are applied to the literature about machine learning for predicting financial market values, resulting in a bibliographical review of the most important studies about this topic. Fifty-seven texts were reviewed, and a classification was proposed for markets, assets, methods, and variables. Among the main results, of particular note is the greater number of studies that use data from the North American market. The most commonly used models for prediction involve support vector machines (SVMs) and neural networks. It was concluded that the research theme is still relevant and that the use of data from developing markets is a research opportunity.

Literature review: Machine learning techniques applied to financial market prediction

Ensemble approach based on bagging, boosting and stacking for short-term prediction in agribusiness time series

Stock market prediction has been a classical yet challenging problem, with the attention from both economists and computer scientists. With the purpose of building an effective prediction model, both linear and machine learning tools have been explored for the past couple of decades. Lately, deep learning models have been introduced as new frontiers for this topic and the rapid development is too fast to catch up. Hence, our motivation for this survey is to give a latest review of recent works on deep learning models for stock market prediction. We not only category the different data sources, various neural network structures, and common used evaluation metrics, but also the implementation and reproducibility. Our goal is to help the interested researchers to synchronize with the latest progress and also help them to easily reproduce the previous studies as baselines. Based on the summary, we also highlight some future research directions in this topic.

Applications of deep learning in stock market prediction: recent progress

Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of the core drivers of industrial development and a critical factor in promoting the integration of emerging technologies, such as graphic processing unit, Inter...

Artificial intelligence: a survey on evolution, models, applications and future trends

With the ubiquity of the Internet, platforms such as: Google, Wikipedia and the like can provide insights pertaining to firms’ financial performance as well as capture the collective interest of traders through search trends, number of web page visitors and/or financial news sentiment. Information emanating from these platforms can significantly affect, or be affected by, changes in the stock market. The overarching goal of this paper is to develop a financial expert system that incorporates these features to predict short term stock prices. Our expert system is comprised of two main modules: a knowledge base and an artificial intelligence (AI) platform. The “knowledge base” for our expert system captures: (a) historical stock prices; (b) several well-known technical indicators; (c) counts and sentiment scores of published news articles for a given stock; (d) trends in Google searches for the given stock ticker; and (e) number of unique visitors for pertinent Wikipedia pages. Once the data is collected, we use a structured approach for data preparation. Then, the AI platform trains four machine learning ensemble methods: (a) a neural network regression ensemble; (b) a support vector regression ensemble; (c) a boosted regression tree; and (d) a random forest regression. In the cross-validation phase, the AI platform picks the “best” ensemble for a given stock. To evaluate the efficacy of our expert system, we first present a case study based on the Citi Group stock ($C) with data collected from 01/01/2013 - 12/31/2016. We show the expert system can predict the 1-day ahead $C stock price with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE)  ≤  1.50% and the 1–10 day ahead with a MAPE  ≤  1.89%, which is better than the reported results in the literature. We show that the use of features extracted from online sources does not substitute the traditional financial metrics, but rather supplements them to improve upon the prediction performance of machine learning based methods. To highlight the utility and generalizability of our expert system, we predict the 1-day ahead price of 19 additional stocks from different industries, volatilities and growth patterns. We report an overall mean for the MAPE statistic of 1.07% across our five different machine learning models, including a MAPE of under 0.75% for 18 of the 19 stocks for the best ensemble (boosted regression tree).

Predicting short-term stock prices using ensemble methods and online data sources

A financial expert system for predicting the daily stock movements.Knowledge base captures both traditional and online data sources.The inference engine uses three artificial intelligence techniques.Prediction accuracy of 85% is higher than the reported results in the literature.The system is hosted online and freely available for investors and researchers. There are several commercial financial expert systems that can be used for trading on the stock exchange. However, their predictions are somewhat limited since they primarily rely on time-series analysis of the market. With the rise of the Internet, new forms of collective intelligence (e.g. Google and Wikipedia) have emerged, representing a new generation of crowd-sourced knowledge bases. They collate information on publicly traded companies, while capturing web traffic statistics that reflect the publics collective interest. Google and Wikipedia have become important knowledge bases for investors. In this research, we hypothesize that combining disparate online data sources with traditional time-series and technical indicators for a stock can provide a more effective and intelligent daily trading expert system. Three machine learning models, decision trees, neural networks and support vector machines, serve as the basis for our inference engine. To evaluate the performance of our expert system, we present a case study based on the AAPL (Apple NASDAQ) stock. Our expert system had an 85% accuracy in predicting the next-day AAPL stock movement, which outperforms the reported rates in the literature. Our results suggest that: (a) the knowledge base of financial expert systems can benefit from data captured from nontraditional experts like Google and Wikipedia; (b) diversifying the knowledge base by combining data from disparate sources can help improve the performance of financial expert systems; and (c) the use of simple machine learning models for inference and rule generation is appropriate with our rich knowledge database. Finally, an intelligent decision making tool is provided to assist investors in making trading decisions on any stock, commodity or index.

Stock market one-day ahead movement prediction using disparate data sources

Macroeconomic indicators alone can predict the monthly closing price of major U.S. indices: Insights from artificial intelligence, time-series analysis and hybrid models

We have proposed to develop a global hybrid deep learning framework to predict the daily prices in the stock market. With representation learning, we derived an embedding called Stock2Vec, which gives us insight for the relationship among different stocks, while the temporal convolutional layers are used for automatically capturing effective temporal patterns both within and across series. Evaluated on S&P 500, our hybrid framework integrates both advantages and achieves better performance on the stock price prediction task than several popular benchmarked models.

Stock2Vec: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Stock Market Prediction with Representation Learning and Temporal Convolutional Network

As deep learning has achieved state-of-the-art performance for many tasks of EEG-based BCI, many efforts have been made in recent years trying to understand what have been learned by the models. This is commonly done by generating a heatmap indicating to which extent each pixel of the input contributes to the final classification for a trained model. Despite the wide use, it is not yet understood to which extent the obtained interpretation results can be trusted and how accurate they can reflect the model decisions. In order to fill this research gap, we conduct a study to evaluate different deep interpretation techniques quantitatively on EEG datasets. The results reveal the importance of selecting a proper interpretation technique as the initial step. In addition, we also find that the quality of the interpretation results is inconsistent for individual samples despite when a method with an overall good performance is used. Many factors, including model structure and dataset types, could potentially affect the quality of the interpretation results. Based on the observations, we propose a set of procedures that allow the interpretation results to be presented in an understandable and trusted way. We illustrate the usefulness of our method for EEG-based BCI with instances selected from different scenarios.

Bin Weng

Papers

Predicting short-term stock prices using ensemble methods and online data sources

Stock market one-day ahead movement prediction using disparate data sources

Macroeconomic indicators alone can predict the monthly closing price of major U.S. indices: Insights from artificial intelligence, time-series analysis and hybrid models

Stock2Vec: A Hybrid Deep Learning Framework for Stock Market Prediction with Representation Learning and Temporal Convolutional Network

Towards Best Practice of Interpreting Deep Learning Models for EEG-based Brain Computer Interfaces