Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

Objective To determine the clinical manifestations, risk factors, and maternal and perinatal outcomes in pregnant and recently pregnant women with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). Design Living systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, Cochrane database, WHO COVID-19 database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and Wanfang databases from 1 December 2019 to 6 October 2020, along with preprint servers, social media, and reference lists. Study selection Cohort studies reporting the rates, clinical manifestations (symptoms, laboratory and radiological findings), risk factors, and maternal and perinatal outcomes in pregnant and recently pregnant women with suspected or confirmed covid-19. Data extraction At least two researchers independently extracted the data and assessed study quality. Random effects meta-analysis was performed, with estimates pooled as odds ratios and proportions with 95% confidence intervals. All analyses will be updated regularly. Results 192 studies were included. Overall, 10% (95% confidence interval 7% to 12%; 73 studies, 67 271 women) of pregnant and recently pregnant women attending or admitted to hospital for any reason were diagnosed as having suspected or confirmed covid-19. The most common clinical manifestations of covid-19 in pregnancy were fever (40%) and cough (41%). Compared with non-pregnant women of reproductive age, pregnant and recently pregnant women with covid-19 were less likely to have symptoms (odds ratio 0.28, 95% confidence interval 0.13 to 0.62; I2=42.9%) or report symptoms of fever (0.49, 0.38 to 0.63; I2=40.8%), dyspnoea (0.76, 0.67 to 0.85; I2=4.4%) and myalgia (0.53, 0.36 to 0.78; I2=59.4%). The odds of admission to an intensive care unit (odds ratio 2.13, 1.53 to 2.95; I2=71.2%), invasive ventilation (2.59, 2.28 to 2.94; I2=0%) and need for extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (2.02, 1.22 to 3.34; I2=0%) were higher in pregnant and recently pregnant than non-pregnant reproductive aged women. Overall, 339 pregnant women (0.02%, 59 studies, 41 664 women) with confirmed covid-19 died from any cause. Increased maternal age (odds ratio 1.83, 1.27 to 2.63; I2=43.4%), high body mass index (2.37, 1.83 to 3.07; I2=0%), any pre-existing maternal comorbidity (1.81, 1.49 to 2.20; I2=0%), chronic hypertension (2.0, 1.14 to 3.48; I2=0%), pre-existing diabetes (2.12, 1.62 to 2.78; I2=0%), and pre-eclampsia (4.21, 1.27 to 14.0; I2=0%) were associated with severe covid-19 in pregnancy. In pregnant women with covid-19, increased maternal age, high body mass index, non-white ethnicity, any pre-existing maternal comorbidity including chronic hypertension and diabetes, and pre-eclampsia were associated with serious complications such as admission to an intensive care unit, invasive ventilation and maternal death. Compared to pregnant women without covid-19, those with the disease had increased odds of maternal death (odds ratio 2.85, 1.08 to 7.52; I2=0%), of needing admission to the intensive care unit (18.58, 7.53 to 45.82; I2=0%), and of preterm birth (1.47, 1.14 to 1.91; I2=18.6%). The odds of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (4.89, 1.87 to 12.81, I2=96.2%) were higher in babies born to mothers with covid-19 versus those without covid-19. Conclusion Pregnant and recently pregnant women with covid-19 attending or admitted to the hospitals for any reason are less likely to manifest symptoms such as fever, dyspnoea, and myalgia, and are more likely to be admitted to the intensive care unit or needing invasive ventilation than non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Pre-existing comorbidities, non-white ethnicity, chronic hypertension, pre-existing diabetes, high maternal age, and high body mass index are risk factors for severe covid-19 in pregnancy. Pregnant women with covid-19 versus without covid-19 are more likely to deliver preterm and could have an increased risk of maternal death and of being admitted to the intensive care unit. Their babies are more likely to be admitted to the neonatal unit. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42020178076. Readers’ note This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 1 of the original article published on 1 September 2020 (BMJ 2020;370:m3320), and previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3320/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/370/bmj.m3320.full.pdf

Clinical manifestations, risk factors, and maternal and perinatal outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnancy: living systematic review and meta-analysis.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(14)70168-7.pdf

Respiratory risks from household air pollution in low and middle income countries

This paper reviews a theory of causal inference based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in (Pearl, 2000a). The theory unifies the graphical, potential-outcome (Neyman-Rubin), decision analytical, and structural equation approaches to causation, and provides both a mathematical foundation and a friendly calculus for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper establishes a methodology for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) the answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effect of potential interventions, (2) queries about counterfactuals, and (3) queries about the direct (or indirect) effect of one event on another.

What is Causal Inference

Iron is an essential trace element for multicellular organisms and nearly all microorganisms. Although iron is abundant in the environment, common forms of iron are minimally soluble and therefore poorly accessible to biological organisms. Microorganisms entering a mammalian host face multiple mechanisms that further restrict their ability to obtain iron and thereby limit their pathogenicity. Iron levels also modulate host defence, as iron content in macrophages regulates their cytokine production. Here, we review recent advances that highlight the role of systemic and cellular iron-regulating mechanisms in protecting hosts from infection, emphasizing aspects that are applicable to human health and disease.

Iron homeostasis in host defence and inflammation

Background: Smoke from biomass burning has been linked to reduced birth weight; association with other birth outcomes is poorly understood. Our objective was to evaluate effects of exposure to biomass smoke on birth weight, preterm birth and stillbirth. Methods: Information on household cooking fuel was available for secondary analysis from two cohorts of pregnant women enrolled at delivery in India (n = 1744). Birth weight was measured and the modified Ballard performed to assess gestational age. Linear and logistic regression models were used to explore associations between fuel and birth outcomes. Effect sizes were adjusted in multivariate models for socio-demographic characteristics using propensity score techniques and for medical/obstetric covariates. Results: Compared to women who use gas (n = 265), women cooking with wood (n = 1306) delivered infants that were on average 112 grams lighter (95% CI -170.1, -54.6) and more likely to be preterm (OR 3.11, 95% CI 2.12, 4.59). Stillbirths were also more common in the wood group (4% versus 0%, p < 0.001). In adjusted models, the association between wood use and birth weight was no longer significant (14 g reduction; 95% CI -93, 66); however, the increased odds for preterm birth persisted (aOR 2.29; 95% CI 1.24, 4.21). Wood fuel use did not increase the risk of delivering either a low birth weight or small for gestational age infant. Conclusions: The association between wood fuel use and reduced birth weight was insignificant in multivariate models using propensity score techniques to account for socio-demographic differences. In contrast, we demonstrated a persistent adverse impact of wood fuel use on preterm delivery. If prematurity is confirmed as a consequence of antenatal exposure to household air pollution, perinatal morbidity and mortality from household air pollution may be higher than previously appreciated.

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Impact of biomass fuels on pregnancy outcomes in central East India

Iron plus folate supplementation increases mortality and morbidity among children in areas of malaria endemicity in Africa, but the effects of supplementation on pregnant women in malaria-endemic areas remain unclear. In northeastern Tanzania, where malaria and iron deficiency are common, we found that placental malaria was less prevalent (8.5% vs. 47.3% of women; P<.0001) and less severe (median parasite density, 4.2% vs. 6.3% of placental red blood cells; P =.04) among women with iron deficiency than among women with sufficient iron stores, especially during the first pregnancy. Multivariate analysis revealed that iron deficiency (P<.0001) and multigravidity (P =.002) significantly decreased the risk of placental malaria. Interventional trials of iron and folate supplementation during pregnancy in malaria-endemic regions in Africa are urgently needed to ascertain the benefits and risks of this intervention.

Blair J. Wylie

Papers

Impact of biomass fuels on pregnancy outcomes in central East India

Decreased Susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum Infection in Pregnant Women with Iron Deficiency. Commentary

Twin chorionicity and the risk of stillbirth.

Uptake of influenza vaccine in pregnant women during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Method of delivery and neonatal outcome in very low-birthweight vertex-presenting fetuses.