Climate change adaptation and mitigation management options: a guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems.

https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/2013/ja_2013_eberhardt_005.pdf

Relationships between climate, radial growth and wood properties of mature loblolly pine in Hawaii and a northern and southern site in the southeastern United States

Climate projections from 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) were used with the 3-PG model to predict the future productivity and water use of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) growing across the southeastern United States. Predictions were made using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. These represent scenarios in which total radiative forcing stabilizes before 2100 (RCP 4.5) or continues increasing throughout the century (RCP 8.5). Thirty-six sites evenly distributed across the native range of the species were used in the analysis. These sites represent a range in current mean annual temperature (14.9-21.6°C) and precipitation (1,120-1,680 mm/year). The site index of each site, which is a measure of growth potential, was varied to represent different levels of management. The 3-PG model predicted that aboveground biomass growth and net primary productivity will increase by 10%-40% in many parts of the region in the future. At cooler sites, the relative growth increase was greater than at warmer sites. By running the model with the baseline [CO2 ] or the anticipated elevated [CO2 ], the effect of CO2 on growth was separated from that of other climate factors. The growth increase at warmer sites was due almost entirely to elevated [CO2 ]. The growth increase at cooler sites was due to a combination of elevated [CO2 ] and increased air temperature. Low site index stands had a greater relative increase in growth under the climate change scenarios than those with a high site index. Water use increased in proportion to increases in leaf area and productivity but precipitation was still adequate, based on the downscaled GCM climate projections. We conclude that an increase in productivity can be expected for a large majority of the planted loblolly pine stands in the southeastern United States during this century.

Pinus taeda forest growth predictions in the 21st century vary with site mean annual temperature and site quality.

Forests provide myriad ecosystem services that are vital to humanity. With climate change, we expect to see significant changes to forests that will alter the supply of these critical services and affect human well-being. To better understand the impacts of climate change on forest-based ecosystem services, we applied a data envelopment analysis method to assess plot-level efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services in Florida natural loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forests. Using field data for n = 16 loblolly pine forest plots, including inputs such as site index, tree density, age, precipitation, and temperatures for each forest plot, we assessed the relative plot-level production of three ecosystem services: timber, carbon sequestered, and species richness. The results suggested that loblolly pine forests in Florida were largely inefficient in the provision of these ecosystem services under current climatic conditions. Climate change had a small negative impact on the loblolly pine forests efficiency in the provision of ecosystem services. In this context, we discussed the reduction of tree density that may not improve ecosystem services production.

Climate Change and Ecosystem Services Output Efficiency in Southern Loblolly Pine Forests

This article analyzes the impacts of different levels of forest productivity scenarios, disturbance risk, and salvageable rates resulting from climate change on the economics of loblolly pine in the southern United States. Potential adaptation strategies examined include reduction in planting density and use of slash pine instead of loblolly pine. Economic returns are most sensitive to changes in disturbance risk and productivity changes as compared with the salvage rate, planting density, or species selection. Loblolly pine with low planting density economically outperforms high-density loblolly pine. Slash pine is generally a less viable option compared with loblolly pine in most cases.

/pdf/impacts-of-climate-change-on-economics-of-forestry-and-s6mh5ppehj.pdf

Impacts of Climate Change on Economics of Forestry and Adaptation Strategies in the Southern United States

Few studies have empirically examined climate change impacts on managed forests in the southern United States. In this paper, we use the U.S. Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Database to fit two growth models across the South and apply the four Hadley III climate scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth assessment Report to project future growth and site productivity on loblolly pine plantations. The static growth model provides a direct test of whether a significant climate influence on forest growth can be statistically derived, while the dynamic growth model estimates climate effects through site productivity. Results indicate considerable spatial variation in potential future growth and productivity change on loblolly pine plantations due to climate change in the southern United States, while overall regional effects are projected to be marginal. The pattern of climate change impacts is consistent across the growth models and climate scenarios. These findings have several implications for climate change adaptation policies.

Bob Abt

Papers

Empirical analysis of climate change impact on loblolly pine plantations in the southern united states