BACKGROUND Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. SEARCH METHODS PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. OUTCOMES SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P < 0.001; slope in adjusted meta-regression models = -0.64; -1.06 to -0.22; P = 0.003). The slopes in the meta-regression model were modified by fertility (P for interaction = 0.064) and geographic group (P for interaction = 0.027). There was a significant decline in SC between 1973 and 2011 among Unselected Western (-1.38; -2.02 to -0.74; P < 0.001) and among Fertile Western (-0.68; -1.31 to -0.05; P = 0.033), while no significant trends were seen among Unselected Other and Fertile Other. Among Unselected Western studies, the mean SC declined, on average, 1.4% per year with an overall decline of 52.4% between 1973 and 2011. Trends for TSC and SC were similar, with a steep decline among Unselected Western (-5.33 million/year, -7.56 to -3.11; P < 0.001), corresponding to an average decline in mean TSC of 1.6% per year and overall decline of 59.3%. Results changed minimally in multiple sensitivity analyses, and there was no statistical support for the use of a nonlinear model. In a model restricted to data post-1995, the slope both for SC and TSC among Unselected Western was similar to that for the entire period (-2.06 million/ml, -3.38 to -0.74; P = 0.004 and -8.12 million, -13.73 to -2.51, P = 0.006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because of the significant public health implications of these results, research on the causes of this continuing decline is urgently needed.

Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

In 1992 Carlsen et al. reported a significant global decline in sperm density between 1938 and 1990 [Evidence for Decreasing Quality of Semen during Last 50 Years. Br Med J 305:609-613 (1992)]. We subsequently published a reanalysis of the studies included by Carlsen et al. [Swan et al. Have Sperm Densities Declined? A Reanalysis of Global Trend Data. Environ Health Perspect 105:1228-1232 (1997)]. In that analysis we found significant declines in sperm density in the United States and Europe/Australia after controlling for abstinence time, age, percent of men with proven fertility, and specimen collection method. The declines in sperm density in the United States (approximately 1.5%/year) and Europe/Australia (approximately 3%/year) were somewhat greater than the average decline reported by Carlsen et al. (approximately 1%/year). However, we found no decline in sperm density in non-Western countries, for which data were very limited. In the current study, we used similar methods to analyze an expanded set of studies. We added 47 English language studies published in 1934-1996 to those we had analyzed previously. The average decline in sperm count was virtually unchanged from that reported previously by Carlsen et al. (slope = -0.94 vs. -0.93). The slopes in the three geographic groupings were also similar to those we reported earlier. In North America, the slope was somewhat less than the slope we had found for the United States (slope = -0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.37--0.24). Similarly, the decline in Europe (slope = -2.35; CI, -3.66--1.05) was somewhat less than reported previously. As before, studies from other countries showed no trend (slope = -0.21; CI, -2.30-1.88). These results are consistent with those of Carlsen et al. and our previous results, suggesting that the reported trends are not dependent on the particular studies included by Carlsen et al. and that the observed trends previously reported for 1938-1990 are also seen in data from 1934-1996.

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The question of declining sperm density revisited: an analysis of 101 studies published 1934-1996.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that miscarriage risk increases with age. However, studies usually investigate only maternal age effects. We investigated both maternal age and paternal age effects on miscarriage risk to provide insight into this frequent reproductive failure. METHODS: The last planned pregnancies (n 3174) that ended in a birth or miscarriage were analysed in a retrospective population-based study on women aged 25–44 years in Denmark, Germany, Italy and Spain. Maternal and paternal ages were analysed together, using a single variable 'couple age' in a multivariate logistic regression analysis, with couples composed of a woman and a man both aged 20–29 years forming the reference group. RESULTS: After adjustment for various factors (e.g. reproductive history, country), we found that the risk of miscarriage was higher if the woman was aged 35 years, as has already been reported in a number of studies. However, the increase in risk was much greater for couples composed of a woman aged 35 years and of a man aged 40 years. Potential source of bias (especially 'reproductive compensation') are discussed. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of an adverse pregnancy outcome is highest if both partners are advanced in age.

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Paternal age and maternal age are risk factors for miscarriage; results of a multicentre European study

Male reproductive function seems to have deteriorated considerably during the past 4-5 decades. However, studies of the reproductive function in unselected populations have not previously been reported. As the large majority of young men in Denmark are subjected to a compulsory medical examination for military service, this provided a unique opportunity to study the reproductive function in an unbiased population. Altogether 891 young men delivered a blood sample in which reproductive hormones were measured. From 708 of these men data were also obtained on semen quality and testis size. The median sperm concentration was 41 x 10(6)/ml (mean 57.4 x 10(6)/ml). Men with ejaculation abstinence above 48 h had slightly higher sperm concentrations (median 45 x10(6)/ml, mean 63.2 x 10(6)/ml), but even in this subgroup, 21 and 43% respectively had sperm counts below 20 x 10(6)/ml and 40 x 10(6)/ml. Among men with no history of reproductive diseases and a period of abstinence above 48 h, as many as 18 and 40% respectively had concentrations below 20 and 40 x 10(6)/ml. Sperm counts were positively correlated with testis size, percentage normal spermatozoa and inhibin B, and negatively correlated with percentage immotile spermatozoa and follicle stimulating hormone. Possible causes for this high frequency of young men with suboptimal semen quality are obscure and need to be explored. Whether these findings apply for young male populations of comparable countries remains to be seen.

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High frequency of sub-optimal semen quality in an unselected population of young men

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2605.1995.tb00408.x

Brenda L. Bordson

Papers

Deterioration of semen quality during summer in New Orleans.

Comparison of fecundability with fresh and frozen semen in therapeutic donor insemination.

Air-conditioned environments do not prevent deterioration of human semen quality during the summer.

The appropriate upper age limit for semen donors: a review of the genetic effects of paternal age