https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61728-0.pdf

Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

/pdf/projections-of-global-mortality-and-burden-of-disease-from-16p7emcopm.pdf

Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61766-8.pdf

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples. Methods In nine countries, we...

/pdf/prevention-of-hiv-1-infection-with-early-antiretroviral-1dj7d23f6p.pdf

Prevention of HIV-1 Infection with Early Antiretroviral Therapy

Most methodological fields undertake regular critical reflections to ensure rigorous research and publication practices, and, consequently, acceptance in their domain. Interestingly, relatively little attention has been paid to assessing the use of partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) in marketing research—despite its increasing popularity in recent years. To fill this gap, we conducted an extensive search in the 30 top ranked marketing journals that allowed us to identify 204 PLS-SEM applications published in a 30-year period (1981 to 2010). A critical analysis of these articles addresses, amongst others, the following key methodological issues: reasons for using PLS-SEM, data and model characteristics, outer and inner model evaluations, and reporting. We also give an overview of the interdependencies between researchers’ choices, identify potential problem areas, and discuss their implications. On the basis of our findings, we provide comprehensive guidelines to aid researchers in avoiding common pitfalls in PLS-SEM use. This study is important for researchers and practitioners, as PLS-SEM requires several critical choices that, if not made correctly, can lead to improper findings, interpretations, and conclusions.

An assessment of the use of partial least squares structural equation modeling in marketing research

BACKGROUND: The increasing global burden of tuberculosis (TB) is linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: We reviewed data from notifications of TB cases, cohort treatment outcomes, surveys of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, and HIV prevalence in patients with TB and other subgroups. Information was collated from published literature and databases held by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (UNAIDS), the US Census Bureau, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: There were an estimated 8.3 million (5th-95th centiles, 7.3-9.2 million) new TB cases in 2000 (137/100,000 population; range, 121/100,000-151/100,000). Tuberculosis incidence rates were highest in the WHO African Region (290/100,000 per year; range, 265/100,000-331/100,000), as was the annual rate of increase in the number of cases (6%). Nine percent (7%-12%) of all new TB cases in adults (aged 15-49 years) were attributable to HIV infection, but the proportion was much greater in the WHO African Region (31%) and some industrialized countries, notably the United States (26%). There were an estimated 1.8 million (5th-95th centiles, 1.6-2.2 million) deaths from TB, of which 12% (226 000) were attributable to HIV. Tuberculosis was the cause of 11% of all adult AIDS deaths. The prevalence of M tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in adults was 0.36% (11 million people). Coinfection prevalence rates equaled or exceeded 5% in 8 African countries. In South Africa alone there were 2 million coinfected adults. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV pandemic presents a massive challenge to global TB control. The prevention of HIV and TB, the extension of WHO DOTS programs, and a focused effort to control HIV-related TB in areas of high HIV prevalence are matters of great urgency.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/articlepdf/215525/ira20017.pdf

The growing burden of tuberculosis: global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic.

https://mysite.science.uottawa.ca/rsmith43/MAT4996/GranichGilks.pdf

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

PART ONE: CONTEXT AND PROCESS Business and Management Research in Perspective Philosophical Background to Research Research Strategies and Tactics The Research Programme and Process PART TWO: APPROACH, METHOD AND DATA The Positivist Approach to Empirical Research Phenomenology: The Non-Positivist Approach The Research Process Collecting Empirical Data The Questionnaire The Case Study The Sample Statistical Analysis PART THREE: REPORTING RESEARCH Ethical Considerations Writing Up the Research Evaluation of Masters and Doctoral Degrees

Doing research in business and management: an introduction to process and method

Drivers of tuberculosis epidemics: the role of risk factors and social determinants.

Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are among the leading causes of childhood mortality. Estimates of the number of children worldwide who die from ARI are needed in setting priorities for health care. To establish a relation between deaths due to ARI and all-cause deaths in children under 5 years we show that the proportion of deaths directly attributable to ARI declines from 23% to 18% and then 15% (95% confidence limits range from +/- 2% to +/- 3%) as under-5 mortality declines from 50 to 20 and then to 10/1000 per year. Much of the variability in estimates of ARI in children is shown to be inherent in the use of verbal autopsies. This analysis suggests that throughout the world 1.9 million (95% CI 1.6-2.2 million) children died from ARI in 2000, 70% of them in Africa and southeast Asia.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473309901001700.pdf

Brian G. Williams

Papers

The growing burden of tuberculosis: global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic.

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

Doing research in business and management: an introduction to process and method

Drivers of tuberculosis epidemics: the role of risk factors and social determinants.

Estimates of world-wide distribution of child deaths from acute respiratory infections