Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

The 11th edition of Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine welcomes Anthony Fauci to its editorial staff, in addition to more than 85 new contributors. While the organization of the book is similar to previous editions, major emphasis has been placed on disorders that affect multiple organ systems. Important advances in genetics, immunology, and oncology are emphasized. Many chapters of the book have been rewritten and describe major advances in internal medicine. Subjects that received only a paragraph or two of attention in previous editions are now covered in entire chapters. Among the chapters that have been extensively revised are the chapters on infections in the compromised host, on skin rashes in infections, on many of the viral infections, including cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus, on sexually transmitted diseases, on diabetes mellitus, on disorders of bone and mineral metabolism, and on lymphadenopathy and splenomegaly. The major revisions in these chapters and many

Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine

Background Antiretroviral therapy that reduces viral replication could limit the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in serodiscordant couples. Methods In nine countries, we...

/pdf/prevention-of-hiv-1-infection-with-early-antiretroviral-1dj7d23f6p.pdf

Prevention of HIV-1 Infection with Early Antiretroviral Therapy

OBJECTIVE — To systematically review the incidence of posttransplantation diabetes (PTD), risk factors for its development, prognostic implications, and optimal management. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS — We searched databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and others) from inception to September 2000, reviewed bibliographies in reports retrieved, contacted transplantation experts, and reviewed specialty journals. Two reviewers independently determined report inclusion (original studies, in all languages, of PTD in adults with no history of diabetes before transplantation), assessed study methods, and extracted data using a standardized form. Meta-regression was used to explain between-study differences in incidence. RESULTS — Nineteen studies with 3,611 patients were included. The 12-month cumulative incidence of PTD is lower (10% in most studies) than it was 3 decades ago. The type of immunosuppression explained 74% of the variability in incidence (P 0.0004). Risk factors were patient age, nonwhite ethnicity, glucocorticoid treatment for rejection, and immunosuppression with high-dose cyclosporine and tacrolimus. PTD was associated with decreased graft and patient survival in earlier studies; later studies showed improved outcomes. Randomized trials of treatment regimens have not been conducted. CONCLUSIONS — Physicians should consider modification of immunosuppressive regimens to decrease the risk of PTD in high-risk transplant recipients. Randomized trials are needed to evaluate the use of oral glucose-lowering agents in transplant recipients, paying particular attention to interactions with immunosuppressive drugs. Diabetes Care 25:583–592, 2002

A systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND: The increasing global burden of tuberculosis (TB) is linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: We reviewed data from notifications of TB cases, cohort treatment outcomes, surveys of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, and HIV prevalence in patients with TB and other subgroups. Information was collated from published literature and databases held by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (UNAIDS), the US Census Bureau, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: There were an estimated 8.3 million (5th-95th centiles, 7.3-9.2 million) new TB cases in 2000 (137/100,000 population; range, 121/100,000-151/100,000). Tuberculosis incidence rates were highest in the WHO African Region (290/100,000 per year; range, 265/100,000-331/100,000), as was the annual rate of increase in the number of cases (6%). Nine percent (7%-12%) of all new TB cases in adults (aged 15-49 years) were attributable to HIV infection, but the proportion was much greater in the WHO African Region (31%) and some industrialized countries, notably the United States (26%). There were an estimated 1.8 million (5th-95th centiles, 1.6-2.2 million) deaths from TB, of which 12% (226 000) were attributable to HIV. Tuberculosis was the cause of 11% of all adult AIDS deaths. The prevalence of M tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in adults was 0.36% (11 million people). Coinfection prevalence rates equaled or exceeded 5% in 8 African countries. In South Africa alone there were 2 million coinfected adults. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV pandemic presents a massive challenge to global TB control. The prevention of HIV and TB, the extension of WHO DOTS programs, and a focused effort to control HIV-related TB in areas of high HIV prevalence are matters of great urgency.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/articlepdf/215525/ira20017.pdf

The growing burden of tuberculosis: global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic.

Part of the reason for failing to bring about a more rapid reduction in tuberculosis incidence worldwide is the lack of effective involvement of all practitioners-public and private-in the provision of high quality tuberculosis care. While health-care providers who are part of national tuberculosis programmes have been trained and are expected to have adopted proper diagnosis, treatment, and public-health practices, the same is not likely to be true for non-programme providers. Studies of the performance of the private sector conducted in several different parts of the world suggest that poor quality care is common. The basic principles of care for people with, or suspected of having, tuberculosis are the same worldwide: a diagnosis should be established promptly; standardised treatment regimens should be used with appropriate treatment support and supervision; response to treatment should be monitored; and essential public-health responsibilities must be carried out. Prompt and accurate diagnosis, and effective treatment are essential for good patient care and tuberculosis control. All providers who undertake evaluation and treatment of patients with tuberculosis must recognise that not only are they delivering care to an individual, but they are also assuming an important public-health function. The International Standards for Tuberculosis Care (ISTC) describe a widely endorsed level of care that all practitioners should seek to achieve in managing individuals who have, or are suspected of having, tuberculosis. The document is intended to engage all care providers in delivering high quality care for patients of all ages, including those with smear-positive, smear-negative, and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, tuberculosis caused by drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, and tuberculosis combined with HIV infection.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(06)70628-4.pdf

International standards for tuberculosis care.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause worldwide of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected people. The HIV era has seen a dramatic increase of the TB case fatality rate (CFR) in high HIV prevalence populations. Providing care for HIV-infected people must include measures to tackle this high TB CFR. The aims were to analyze the extent of the increased TB CFR in high HIV prevalence populations in sub-Saharan Africa the reasons for this increase and the causes of death in order to identify possible ways of tackling this problem. References were obtained by searching the MEDLINE on `TB `HIV infection and `mortality (MesH or textword). In addition available data from National TB Programme reports were reviewed. TB CFR is closely linked to HIV prevalence. Limited autopsy data suggest that death from HIV- related diseases other than TB is probably the main reason for the increased CFR in HIV-infected TB patients. Among HIV-infected TB patients the higher TB CFR in sputum smear-negative and extrapulmonary than in sputum smear-positive TB cases can also be attributed to misdiagnosis of HIV-related diseases as TB. The adverse effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on general health service performance probably accounts for the higher TB CFR among HIV- negative TB patients in high prevalence populations than that in low HIV-prevalence populations. Tackling the problem of the increased TB CFR in high HIV prevalence populations requires collaboration between TB control and HIV/AIDS programs in implementing measures such as improved health services TB and HIV control services preventive treatment for HIV-related diseases and anti-HIV treatment. (authors)

Tuberculosis case fatality rates in high HIV prevalence populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Preparing the books to read every day is enjoyable for many people. However, there are still many people who also don't like reading. This is a problem. But, when you can support others to start reading, it will be better. One of the books that can be recommended for new readers is guidelines for the management of drug resistant tuberculosis. This book is not kind of difficult book to read. It can be read and understand by the new readers.

Guidelines for the Management of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis

TB/HIV: a clinical manual , TB/HIV: a clinical manual , کتابخانه الکترونیک و دیجیتال - آذرسا

Dermot Maher

Papers

The growing burden of tuberculosis: global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic.

International standards for tuberculosis care.

Tuberculosis case fatality rates in high HIV prevalence populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Guidelines for the Management of Drug-resistant Tuberculosis

TB/HIV : a clinical manual