Introduction Worldwide, economic damages attributed to natural disasters tripled from the 1960s The economic, social, and environmental costs and losses associated with drought are also increasing dramatically, although it is difficult to quantify this trend precisely because of the lack of reliable historical estimates of losses. White and Haas estimated in 1975 that the average annual crop losses associated with drought in the Great Plains region of the United States were about US$700 million. In 1995, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated annual losses attributable to drought at US$6-8 billion (FEMA 1995). More specific figures from recent drought episodes in the United States provide a clearer picture of the magnitude of drought losses and our continuing vulnerability. The southwestern and southern Great Plains states experienced dramatic impacts on agriculture , water supply, wildfires, transportation, and tourism and The estimated losses further illustrate the trend in vulnerability in the United States. Factors that may explain this trend are numerous; they include deficiencies in monitoring and early warning systems and the application of this information by decision makers, urbanization, population growth and regional population shifts to more drought-prone areas, outdated or inappropriate water management policies and practices, lack of contingency planning, fragmented responsibilities in water/drought management by government agencies, and poor coordination within and between levels of government. Thus, vulnerability is increasing in the United States despite dramatic technological advances and the availability of large financial resources (Riebsame et al. 1991). The series of drought years that occurred in the United States between 1986 and 1992, as well as severe drought conditions that prevailed in 1994, 1996, and 1998, has further reinforced the reality of the nation's vulnerability. What concerns many scientists and decision makers is the diversity and complexity of drought impacts and the low level of preparedness for future events. The ongoing debate about climate change and its potential effects on the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events is adding further to the concerns of scientists and decision makers. The concerns about the trends in losses associated with natural disasters in developed countries are magnified when placed in the context of developing nations. Natural hazards result in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental, and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Figure 1.1 illustrates the trend of major natural disasters between 1963 and 1992, expressed as the number of disasters affecting 1 percent or …

Drought as a natural hazard : Concepts and definitions

https://www7.nau.edu/mpcer/direnet/publications/publications_l/files/LeHouerou_1996.pdf

Climate change, drought and desertification

This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

This study discusses the climatological aspects of the most severe drought ever recorded in the semiarid region Northeast Brazil. Droughts are recurrent in the region and while El Nino has driven some of these events others are more dependent on the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature fields. The drought affecting this region during the last 5 years shows an intensity and impact not seen in several decades in the regional economy and society. The analysis of this event using drought indicators as well as meteorological fields shows that since the middle 1990s to 2016, 16 out of 25 years experienced rainfall below normal. This suggests that the recent drought may have in fact started in the middle-late 1990s, with the intense droughts of 1993 and 1998, and then the sequence of dry years (interrupted by relatively wet years in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011) after that may have affected the levels of reservoirs in the region, leading to a real water crisis that was magnified by the negative rainfall anomalies since 2010.

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Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region.

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceara, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceara, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a) characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c) institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceara case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.

C. A. Nobre

Papers

The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in northeast Brazil.