The term ‘vulnerability’ is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change.

Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research

Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity

https://www.ukm.my/ipi/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/70_2002_Consequences-of-climate-change-for-European-agricultural.pdf

Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

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A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100).

Introduction Worldwide, economic damages attributed to natural disasters tripled from the 1960s The economic, social, and environmental costs and losses associated with drought are also increasing dramatically, although it is difficult to quantify this trend precisely because of the lack of reliable historical estimates of losses. White and Haas estimated in 1975 that the average annual crop losses associated with drought in the Great Plains region of the United States were about US$700 million. In 1995, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimated annual losses attributable to drought at US$6-8 billion (FEMA 1995). More specific figures from recent drought episodes in the United States provide a clearer picture of the magnitude of drought losses and our continuing vulnerability. The southwestern and southern Great Plains states experienced dramatic impacts on agriculture , water supply, wildfires, transportation, and tourism and The estimated losses further illustrate the trend in vulnerability in the United States. Factors that may explain this trend are numerous; they include deficiencies in monitoring and early warning systems and the application of this information by decision makers, urbanization, population growth and regional population shifts to more drought-prone areas, outdated or inappropriate water management policies and practices, lack of contingency planning, fragmented responsibilities in water/drought management by government agencies, and poor coordination within and between levels of government. Thus, vulnerability is increasing in the United States despite dramatic technological advances and the availability of large financial resources (Riebsame et al. 1991). The series of drought years that occurred in the United States between 1986 and 1992, as well as severe drought conditions that prevailed in 1994, 1996, and 1998, has further reinforced the reality of the nation's vulnerability. What concerns many scientists and decision makers is the diversity and complexity of drought impacts and the low level of preparedness for future events. The ongoing debate about climate change and its potential effects on the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events is adding further to the concerns of scientists and decision makers. The concerns about the trends in losses associated with natural disasters in developed countries are magnified when placed in the context of developing nations. Natural hazards result in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental, and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Figure 1.1 illustrates the trend of major natural disasters between 1963 and 1992, expressed as the number of disasters affecting 1 percent or …

Drought as a natural hazard : Concepts and definitions

The Impact of climatic variations on agriculture

This is the first of two volumes which report detailed results from the international project on the impact of climatic variations on agriculture funded jointly by the UN Enviroment Programme and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, with additional support from the United Nations University. This volume reports results from five case studies in cool temperate and cold regions undertaken by climatologists, agronomists, agricultural economists and regional and national planners. Three sets of models were adopted in these studies to simulate in turn the climatic change, the first-order impacts on crop yields or forestry or livestock production and the second-order responses of the wider agricultural and socioeconomic sectors.

The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Vol. 1: Assessments in Cool, Temperate and Cold Regions

Although the ability to forecast the arrival and duration of particular extreme climatic events is limited, they will naturally and inevitably recur as inherent features of Australian agriculture. Most farmers and other rural business people are aware of fluctuating seasonal (and market) conditions and make their own contingency plans. Such plans result in marked changes in production and incomes in the rural sector, and some transfer effects to the rest of the economy — see Lovett (1973) and Anderson (1979) for an overview of these effects; and Campbell et al. (1983), Purtill et al. (1983) and Gibbs (1984) for discussion of the most recent drought (1982–83). Most farmers balance the good and bad times, and maintain both their ability to continue production and their household living standards until better seasonal conditions return. However, some do not make adequate provision for the stock, income and cash flow losses caused, for example, by drought, flood and fire. Selected reports of the ravages and hardships of drought are irresistible headline material in the media. Sympathy flows from the public, and governments agree, all too readily, to provide subsidies from public funds for drought assistance.

Implications for policy makers and planners

The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in northeast Brazil.

The overall economic strategy adopted by the Kenya Government since independence in 1963 has been based on an open market system in which profit to individuals or organizations has been an accepted driving force. In the agricultural sector, the involvement of government at both production and processing levels has been rather limited, although involvement in marketing and distribution has been considerable. During the 1960s and 1970s agricultural production as a whole expanded at an overall rate of about 3.5% per annum (Government of Kenya, 1981). However, with an annual population growth rate of over 4% per annum, even this remarkable growth in output has not kept pace with the food needs of the population.

Nicolaas T. Konijn

Papers

The Impact of climatic variations on agriculture

The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Vol. 1: Assessments in Cool, Temperate and Cold Regions

Implications for policy makers and planners

The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in northeast Brazil.

Implications for Policy