Global strategy for asthma management and prevention

So far in this course we have dealt entirely with the evolution of characters that are controlled by simple Mendelian inheritance at a single locus. There are notes on the course website about gametic disequilibrium and how allele frequencies change at two loci simultaneously, but we didn’t discuss them. In every example we’ve considered we’ve imagined that we could understand something about evolution by examining the evolution of a single gene. That’s the domain of classical population genetics. For the next few weeks we’re going to be exploring a field that’s actually older than classical population genetics, although the approach we’ll be taking to it involves the use of population genetic machinery. If you know a little about the history of evolutionary biology, you may know that after the rediscovery of Mendel’s work in 1900 there was a heated debate between the “biometricians” (e.g., Galton and Pearson) and the “Mendelians” (e.g., de Vries, Correns, Bateson, and Morgan). Biometricians asserted that the really important variation in evolution didn’t follow Mendelian rules. Height, weight, skin color, and similar traits seemed to

Human biochemical genetics

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)61766-8.pdf

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background: The finding of a decrease in contralateral breast cancer incidence following tamoxifen administration for adjuvant therapy led to the concept that the drug might play a role in breast cancer prevention. To test this hypothesis, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project initiated the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (P-1) in 1992. Methods: Women (N = 13 388) at increased risk for breast cancer because they 1) were 60 years of age or older, 2) were 35‐59 years of age with a 5-year predicted risk for breast cancer of at least 1.66%, or 3) had a history of lobular carcinoma in situ were randomly assigned to receive placebo (n = 6707) or 20 mg/day tamoxifen (n = 6681) for 5 years. Gail’s algorithm, based on a multivariate logistic regression model using combinations of risk factors, was used to estimate the probability (risk) of occurrence of breast cancer over time. Results: Tamoxifen reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer by 49% (two-sided P<.00001), with cumulative incidence through 69 months of follow-up of 43.4 versus 22.0 per 1000 women in the placebo and tamoxifen groups, respectively. The decreased risk occurred in women aged 49 years or younger (44%), 50‐59 years (51%), and 60 years or older (55%); risk was also reduced in women with a history of lobular carcinoma in situ (56%) or atypical hyperplasia (86%) and in those with any category of predicted 5-year risk. Tamoxifen reduced the risk of noninvasive breast cancer by 50% (two-sided P<.002). Tamoxifen reduced the occurrence of estrogen receptor-positive tumors by 69%, but no difference in the occurrence of estrogen receptor-negative tumors was seen. Tamoxifen administration did not alter the average annual rate of ischemic heart disease; however, a reduction in hip, radius (Colles’), and spine fractures was observed. The rate of endometrial cancer was increased in the tamoxifen group (risk ratio = 2.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.35‐4.97); this increased risk occurred predominantly in women aged 50 years or older. All endometrial cancers in the tamoxifen group were stage I (localized disease); no endometrial cancer deaths have occurred in this group. No liver cancers or increase in colon, rectal, ovarian, or other tumors was observed in the tamoxifen group. The rates of stroke, pulmonary embolism, and deep-vein thrombosis were elevated in the tamoxifen group; these events occurred more frequently in women aged 50 years or older. Conclusions: Tamoxifen decreases the incidence of invasive and noninvasive breast cancer. Despite side effects resulting from administration of tamoxifen, its use as a breast cancer preventive agent is appropriate in many women at increased risk for the disease. [J Natl Cancer Inst 1998;90:1371‐88]

/pdf/tamoxifen-for-prevention-of-breast-cancer-report-of-the-2kp9cx2d4k.pdf

Tamoxifen for Prevention of Breast Cancer: Report of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 Study

Objective: To determine the ability of measurements of bone density in women to predict later fractures. Design: Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies published between 1985 and end of 1994 with a baseline measurement of bone density in women and subsequent follow up for fractures. For comparative purposes, we also reviewed case control studies of hip fractures published between 1990 and 1994. Subjects: Eleven separate study populations with about 90000 person years of observation time and over 2000 fractures. Main outcome measures: Relative risk of fracture for a decrease in bone mineral density of one standard deviation below age adjusted mean. Results: All measuring sites had similar predictive abilities (relative risk 1.5 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 1.6)) for decrease in bone mineral density except for measurement at spine for predicting vertebral fractures (relative risk 2.3 (1.9 to 2.8)) and measurement at hip for hip fractures (2.6 (2.0 to 3.5)). These results are in accordance with results of case-control studies. Predictive ability of decrease in bone mass was roughly similar to (or, for hip or spine measurements, better than) that of a 1 SD increase in blood pressure for stroke and better than a 1 SD increase in serum cholesterol concentration for cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Measurements of bone mineral density can predict fracture risk but cannot identify individuals who will have a fracture. We do not recommend a programme of screening menopausal women for osteoporosis by measuring bone density. Key messages Measuring bone mineral density has been suggested as a method of identifying individuals at high risk of fracture in a preventive context Our meta-analysis of prospective studies showed that all studies measuring bone density at any site had similar predictive ability for a decrease of 1 SD in bone density except for measurements at hip and spine, which have better predictive ability for fractures in hip and spine respectively Predictive ability of decrease in bone mass was roughly similar to (or, for hip or spine measurements, better than) that of a 1 SD increase in blood pressure for stroke and better than a 1 SD increase in serum cholesterol concentration for cardiovascular disease Although bone mineral density measurements can predict fracture risk, they cannot identify individuals who will have a fracture, and a screening programme for osteoporosis cannot be recommended

Meta-analysis of how well measures of bone mineral density predict occurrence of osteoporotic fractures

VER THE YEARS many definitions of osteoporosis have been 0 offered to describe variously the outcome events (fragility fractures), the process giving rise to porous bones, or the resultant diminution of bone mass. More consistency has been achieved in recent years by the development of definitions that cover the spectrum of its manifestations. from the reduced amount of bone present to some of the consequences of bone loss. A consensus development conference statement defined osteoporosis as "a disease characterized by low bonc mass and microarchitectural deterioration of bone tissue, leading to enhanced bone fragility and a consequent increase in fracture risk."'" The definition has survived the rigors of the most recent consensus development confcrence."' There are, however, a number of problems which need to be addressed in adapting a conceptual definition for clinical use. Some of these problems were recently discussed by an expert panel of the World Health Organization."' This paper summarizes these issues and proposes diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis for practical use.

The diagnosis of osteoporosis

Assessment of fracture risk and its application to screening for postmenopausal osteoporosis

Data on the number of U.S. women with low femoral bone mineral density (BMD) are currently available only from indirect estimates. We used dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements of femoral BMD from phase 1 of the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1991) to estimate prevalences of low femoral BMD in women ages 50 years and older using an approach proposed recently by an expert panel of the World Health Organization (WHO). Cutpoints for low BMD were derived from BMD data of 194 non-Hispanic white (NHW) women aged 20-29 years from the NHANES III dataset. The prevalence of older U.S. women with femoral osteopenia (BMD between 1 standard deviation [SD] and 2.5 SD below the mean of young NHW women) ranged from 34-50% in four different femur regions, which corresponds to approximately 12-17 million women. The prevalence with osteoporosis (BMD > 2.5 SD below the mean of young NHW women) ranged from 17-20%, or approximately 6-7 million women. Prevalences were 1.3-2.4 times higher in NHW women than non-Hispanic black women (NHB), and 0.8-1.2 times higher in NHW versus Mexican American (MA) women. The estimated numbers of NHW, NHB, and MA women with osteopenia were 10-15 million, 800,000-1.2 million, and 300,000-400,000, respectively; corresponding figures for osteoporosis were 5-6 million, 200,000-300,000, and 100,000 respectively. Thus, the first data on BMD from a nationally representative sample of older women show a substantial number with low femoral BMD.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prevalence of low femoral bone density in older U.S. adults from NHANES III.

To study the effect of bone mass on the risk of fracture, we followed 521 Caucasian women over an average of 6.5 yr and took repeated bone mass measurements at the radius. We observed 138 nonspinal fractures in 3,388 person-yr. The person-years of follow-up and the incident fractures were cross-classified by age and bone mass. The incidence of fracture was then fitted to a log-linear model in age and bone mass. It was found that incidence of fracture increased with both increasing age and decreasing radius bone mass. When subsets of fractures were examined it was found that age was a stronger predictor of hip fractures, whereas midshaft radius bone mass was a stronger predictor of fractures at the distal forearm. We concluded that bone mass is a useful predictor of fractures but that other age-related factors associated with fractures need to be identified.

/pdf/age-and-bone-mass-as-predictors-of-fracture-in-a-prospective-2kdi5979fu.pdf

Age and bone mass as predictors of fracture in a prospective study.

Background. Increased dietary intake of calcium during childhood, usually as calcium in milk, is associated with increased bone mass in adulthood; the increase in mass is important in modifying the later risk of fracture. Whether the increase is due to the calcium content of milk, however, is not certain. Methods. We conducted a three-year, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the effect of calcium supplementation (1000 mg of calcium citrate malate per day) on bone mineral density in 70 pairs of identical twins (mean [±SD] age, 10±2 years; range, 6 to 14). In each pair, one twin served as a control for the other; 45 pairs completed the study. Bone mineral density was measured by photon absorptiometry at two sites in the radius (at base line, six months, and one, two, and three years) and at three sites in the hip and in the spine (at base line and three years). Results. The mean daily calcium intake of the twins given placebo was 908 mg, and that of the twins given calcium supplements was 16...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJM199207093270204

C. Conrad Johnston

Papers

The diagnosis of osteoporosis

Assessment of fracture risk and its application to screening for postmenopausal osteoporosis

Prevalence of low femoral bone density in older U.S. adults from NHANES III.

Age and bone mass as predictors of fracture in a prospective study.

Calcium supplementation and increases in bone mineral density in children.