Building performance simulation (BPS) uses computer-based models that cover performance aspects such as energy consumption and thermal comfort in buildings. The uptake of BPS in current building design projects is limited. Although there is a large number of building simulation tools available, the actual application of these tools is mostly restricted to code compliance checking or thermal load calculations for sizing of heating, ventilation and air-conditions systems in detailed design. The aim of the presented work is to investigate opportunities in BPS during the later phases of the design process, and to research and enable innovative applications of BPS for design support. The research started from an existing and proven design stage specific simulation software tool. The research methods applied comprise of literature review, interviews, rapid iterative prototyping, and usability testing. The result of this research is a prototype simulation based environment that provides add-ons like uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, multi-criteria and disciplinary decision making under uncertainty, and multi-objective optimization. The first prototype addressing the uncertainties in physical, scenario, and design parameters provides additional information through figures and tables. This outcome helps the designer in understanding how parameters relate to each other and to comprehend how variations in the model input affect the output. It supports the design process by providing a basis to compare different design options and leads therefore to an improved guidance in the design process. The second approach addresses the integration of a decision making protocol with the extension of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This prototype supports the design team in the design process by providing a base for communication. Furthermore, it supports the decision process by providing the possibility to compare different design options by minimizing the risk that is related to different concepts. It reduces the influence of preoccupation in common decision making and avoids pitfalls due to a lack of planning and focus. The third and last approach shows the implementation of two multi-objective algorithms and the integration of uncertainty in optimization. The results show the optimization of parameters for the objectives energy consumption and weighted overand underheating hours. It shows further how uncertainties impact the Pareto frontier achieved. The applicability and necessity of the three implemented approaches has further been validated with the help of usability testing by conducting mock-up presentations and an online survey. The outcome has shown that the presented results enhance the capabilities of BPS and fulfil the requirements in detailed design by providing a better understanding of results, guidance through the design process, and supporting the decision process. All three approaches have been found important to be integrated in BPS.

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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in building performance simulation for decision support and design optimization

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/7129.pdf

A game theory based exit selection model for evacuation

The present review examines decision-making methods developed for dealing with uncertainties and applied to solve problems of civil engineering. Several methodological difficulties emerging from uncertainty quantification in decision-making are identified. The review is focused on formal methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM). Handling of uncertainty by means of fuzzy logic and probabilistic modelling is analysed in light of MCDM. A sensitivity analysis of MCDM problems with uncertainties is discussed. An application of stochastic MCDM methods to a design of safety critical objects of civil engineering is considered. Prospects of using MCDM under uncertainty in developing areas of civil engineering are discussed in brief. These areas are design of sustainable and energy efficient buildings, building information modelling, and assurance of security and safety of built property. It is stated that before long the decision-making in civil engineering may face several methodological problems: the need to combine fuzzy and probabilistic representations of uncertainties in one decision-making matrix, the necessity to extend a global sensitivity analysis to all input elements of a MCDM problem with uncertainties, and an application of MCDM methods in the areas of civil engineering where decision-making under uncertainty is presently not common.

/pdf/solving-civil-engineering-problems-by-means-of-fuzzy-and-2405aoycke.pdf

Solving Civil Engineering Problems by Means of Fuzzy and Stochastic MCDM Methods: Current State and Future Research

A delay in the pre-evacuation reaction may be one of the reasons causing occupants to be ‘trapped’ in a dangerous zone. Under fire situations, people are found to behave differently in that some may start evacuation immediately, some may ignore the fire alarms and engage in their activities and some others may participate in fighting the fire. These behavioral reaction patterns are influenced by some factors, such as occupant characteristics, building characteristics and fire characteristics. The purpose of this study is to investigate the pre-evacuation behavior of occupants under fire and explore the associations between these factors and the human behavior. To obtain the human behavioral information in real fire, a post-fire survey for a multi-storey office building fire in a major city in Mainland China was carried out with the assistance of local fire professionals. Some of the possible factors that might influence the occupants’ actions at recognitions and response stage were examined. It was reckoned that the behavioral reaction at recognition and response stage was mainly dependent on the human characteristics and building characteristics except the fire characteristics. The results also implied that pre-evacuation time was typically influenced by the occupant characteristics.

C.M. Zhao

Papers

A simulation approach for ranking of fire safety attributes of existing buildings