We develop a theory of political transitions inspired in part by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening social unrest or revolution and this may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more redistributive than a nondemocratic regime, and this gives the elite an incentive to mount a coup. Because inequality makes democracy more costly for the elite, highly unequal societies are less likely to consolidate democracy and may end up oscillating between regimes or in a nondemocratic repressive regime. An unequal society is likely to experience fiscal volatility, but the relationship between inequality and redistribution is nonmonotonic; societies with intermediate levels of inequality consolidate democracy and redistribute more than both very equal and very unequal countries. We also show that asset redistribution, such as educational and land reform, may be used to consolidate both democratic and nondemocratic regimes.

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A Theory of Political Transitions

All fourteen major peacebuilding missions launched between 1989 and 1999 shared a common strategy for consolidating peace after internal conflicts: immediate democratization and marketization. Transforming war-shattered states into market democracies is basically sound, but pushing this process too quickly can have damaging and destabilizing effects. The process of liberalization is inherently tumultuous, and can undermine the prospects for stable peace. A more sensible approach to post-conflict peacebuilding would seek, first, to establish a system of domestic institutions that are capable of managing the destabilizing effects of democratization and marketization within peaceful bounds and only then phase in political and economic reforms slowly, as conditions warrant. Peacebuilders should establish the foundations of effective governmental institutions prior to launching wholesale liberalization programs. Avoiding the problems that marred many peacebuilding operations in the 1990s will require longer-lasting and, ultimately, more intrusive forms of intervention in the domestic affairs of these states. This book was first published in 2004.

At War's End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict

Part I. Theoretical Framing: 1. Questions, approaches, and cases 2. Citizenship regimes, the state, and ethnic cleavages 3. The argument: indigenous mobilization in Latin America Part II. The Cases: 4. Ecuador: Latin America's strongest indigenous movement 5. The Ecuadorian Andes and ECUARUNARI 6. The Ecuadorian Amazon and CONFENAIE 7. Forming the National Confederation, CONAIE 8. Bolivia: strong regional movements 9. The Bolivian Andes: the Kataristas and their legacy 10. The Bolivian Amazon 11. Peru: weak national movements and subnational variation 12. Peru. Ecuador, and Bolivia: most similar cases 13. No national indigenous movement: explaining the Peruvian anomaly 14. Explaining subnational variation 15. Conclusion: 16. Democracy and the postliberal challenge in Latin America.

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Contesting Citizenship in Latin America: The Rise of Indigenous Movements and the Postliberal Challenge

I o n e of the challenges facing the international community in the post-Cold War era is the increasingly pervasive problem of civil conflict.’ Indeed, all of the thirty major armed conflicts fought in the world in 1995 were intrastate wars.’ Devising ways of responding to this violence has been a topic of considerable debate among policymakers and students of conflict management in recent years.3 But no less important is the task of determining what to do once the fighting stops. Operations that aim to prevent violence from reigniting after the initial termination of hostilities-commonly called “postconflict peacebuilding”have been conducted in eight war-shattered states since the end of the Cold War: Namibia, Cambodia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Mozambique, Angola,

Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism

Latin American populism is generally associated with the
 developmental stage of import substitution industrialization; it is
 thus widely presumed to have been eclipsed by the debt crisis of
 the 1980s and the free market reforms of the neoliberal era.
 However, the leadership of Alberto Fujimori in Peru suggests that
 new forms of populism may be emerging despite the fiscal
 constraints of neoliberal austerity. This new variant of populism
 thrives in a context where economic crisis and social dislocation
 undermine traditional representative institutions, enabling
 personalist leaders to establish unmediated relationships with
 heterogeneous, atomized masses. Political support can be
 cultivated through populist attacks on entrenched political elites or
 institutions, along with targeted but highly visible poverty alleviation
 programs. This new form of populist autocracy complements the
 efforts of neoliberal technocrats to circumvent the representative
 institutions that are integral to democratic accountability. The
 Peruvian case thus demonstrates that populism has been
 transformed rather than eclipsed during the neoliberal era and that it
 should be decoupled theoretically from any particular phase or
 model of economic development.

Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case

De ambulancias, bomberos y policias: la política social del neoliberalismo

As I get older I give more importance to continuities, and try to discover them under the appearances of change and mutation. And I have reached the conclusion that there is only one great continuity: that of blood.Class structure never entirely displaces other criteria and forms of differentiation and hierarchy (e.g. ethnicity, gender, lineage) in the constitution of social identities and in prompting collective action. Class as a concept and as a point of reference is linked to these other criteria; often it is subsumed in them, thus contributing to the definition of the different groups' forms of expression and of their insertion into the social totality. But class does not eliminate these other criteria nor the identities deriving from them, nor can it preclude the relative autonomy derived from their specificity, as they define loyalties and oppositions which frequently cross over class boundaries. The relevance of these criteria in Latin America is even greater since the society's class profile is less sharply defined because of the lower level of development of market relations and urban industrial capitalism.Several studies have pointed to the importance of ruling families in shaping the socio-economic structure of Latin American countries, their political institutions and their cultural life. Prominent families have been considered the axis of Latin America's history from the last part of the colonial period until the beginnings of the present century – and until even more recently in some countries. Interestingly enough, these historical studies have contributed to a better understanding of one of the features most frequently discussed in today's sociological studies of Latin America: the weak or inchoate differentiation between public and private life and between collective and individual action.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022216X00023403

Family Affairs: Class, Lineage and Politics in Contemporary Nicaragua

Nos anos recentes difundiu-se a expressao "neopopulismo" para referir-se a alguns governos que implementaram as politicas recomendadas pelo chamado "Consenso de Washington". O artigo discute a pertinencia dessa caracterizacao, que reduz a analise a determinados aspectos instrumentais ou parciais dos respectivos governos em detrimento de seus objetivos e, em geral, o projeto politico que implementaram ou procuraram implementar. Argumenta-se que falar nesses casos de "neopopulismo" implica uma caracterizacao ruim das experiencias a que se refere, confundindo a natureza, os objetivos e as estrategias politicas e socio-economicas do populismo latino-americano. Assim, inicialmente se resumem os tracos principais do populismo latino-americano. Em seguida, analisa-se a hipotese neopopulista em suas principais dimensoes e por fim realiza-se a discussao da hipotese neopopulista. Abstract In recent years, the term "neopopulism" has been used to refer to several governments that implemented the policies recommended through the so-called "Washington consensus". This article discusses the pertinence of such a characterization, which reduces the analysis of particular instrumental or partial aspects of the respective governments in detriment of their goals and, more generally speaking, the political project that they put into effect or sought to implement. We argue that to speak of these cases as neo-populism means improperly characterizing the experiences to which they refer, confounding the nature, goals and political and socioeconomic strategies of Latin American populism. We then proceed with an analysis of the key dimensions of the neopopulist hypothesis and conclude with an evaluation of it. Resume Depuis quelques annees, tout en designant quelques gouvernements qui ont eu recours aux principes politiques recommandes par le soi-disant "Consensus de Washington", l'expression "neo-populisme" s'est propagee. Cet article discute de la pertinence de cette denomination car elle reduit l'analyse a certains aspects instrumentaux ou partiaux des respectifs gouvernements au detriment de leurs objectifs et souvent du projet politique qu'ils ont mis en oeuvre ou bien celui qu'ils ont esssaye de mettre en place. Nous pretendons que dire neo-populisme consiste dans une mauvaise caracterisation des experiences auxquelles nous avons affaire, nous melangeons la nature, les objectifs et les strategies politiques et socioeconomiques du populisme latino-americain. D'abord, les principaux traits du populisme latino-americain sont presentes en bref. Ensuite, il est analyse l'hypothese neo-populiste dans ses principales dimensions et, finalement, il est introduit le debat sur l'hypothese neo-populiste.

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¿Populismos reciclados o neoliberalismo a secas? El mito del "neopopulismo" latinoamericano

As a result of a variety of factors that in the final analysis point to the macro-economic design implemented for over a decade, poverty and social inequality accelerated throughout the 1990s in Argentina and contributed to the unfolding of a political crisis already in gestation for some time. It culminated in 2001—2002 with an extraordinary political mobilisation that brought down the government. However, the lack of political articulation of the massive social protests created conditions for the crisis to be processed in the short run by the institutional actors of the established political system. Against a backdrop of intense social turmoil, a set of assistance-oriented emergency policies was enacted along with changes in several macro-economic instruments. These measures proved capable of containing the most virulent expressions of social protest, thereby deferring treatment of the substantive causes of the crisis to a government that would arise out of the electoral process.

Neoliberal Meltdown and Social Protest: Argentina 2001—2002

En anos recientes ha surgido en varios paises de America Latina un nuevo tipo de izquierda, menos confrontacional y mas pragmatica, orientada a la construccion de amplias coaliciones que apuntan a la introduccion de reformas en los aspectos mas socialmente nocivos que el ajuste neoliberal dejo. Con ciertas similitudes con los regimenes nacional -populares que a mediados del siglo pasado dinamizaron la modernizacion politica y economica de la region, y recurriendo a la competencia electoral y a masivas movilizaciones publicas, la nueva izquierda estimula las expectativas de cambio democratico con sentido de progreso social.

Carlos M. Vilas

Papers

De ambulancias, bomberos y policias: la política social del neoliberalismo

Family Affairs: Class, Lineage and Politics in Contemporary Nicaragua

¿Populismos reciclados o neoliberalismo a secas? El mito del "neopopulismo" latinoamericano

Neoliberal Meltdown and Social Protest: Argentina 2001—2002

La izquierda latinoamericana y el surgimiento de regímenes nacional-populares