Showing papers by "Charles I. Jones published in 1997"
Book•
01 Dec 1997
TL;DR: In this article, Jones and Vollrath have updated and revised the introduction to economic growth to reflect recent advances in economic growth theory in clear, direct language, which is the only text to synthesize the journal literature in a way that makes this important field accessible to undergraduates.
Abstract: Introduction to Economic Growth is the only text to synthesize the journal literature in a way that makes this important field accessible to undergraduates. Charles I. Jones and new co-author Dietrich Vollrath have updated and revised the text to reflect recent advances in Economic Growth Theory in clear, direct language.
959 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors derive the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound.
Abstract: Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growth model the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound. Furthermore, our analytic framework provides a direct mapping from the rate of return to the degree of underinvestment in research. Conservative estimates suggest that optimal R&D investment is at least two to four times actual investment.
869 citations
TL;DR: The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in the distribution of GDP per worker around the world as discussed by the authors, which has led to a movement in the shape of the world income distribution from something that looks like a normal distribution in 1960 to a bi-modal ''twin-peaks'' distribution in 1988.
Abstract: The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in the distribution of GDP per worker around the world. In the upper half of the distribution, a number of countries have exhibited large increases in income relative to the richest countries. In the bottom half, several countries have seen incomes fall relative to the richest countries. The net result of these changes is a movement in the shape of the world income distribution from something that looks like a normal distribution in 1960 to a bi-modal \twin-peaks" distribution in 1988. Projecting these changes into the future suggests a number of interesting ndings. First, it seems likely that the United States will lose its position as the country with the highest level of GDP per worker. Second, growth miracles have been more common in recent decades than growth disasters. If these dynamics continue, the future income distribution will involve far more \rich" countries and far fewer \poor" countries than currently observed.
355 citations
TL;DR: This article examined economic levels instead of economic growth and found that economic levels can explain differences in average growth rates across countries, computed over several decades over the last several decades, instead of just one or two decades.
Abstract: In the title of his 1989 Richard T Ely lecture to the American Economic Association, David Landes asked, "Why are we so rich and they so poor?" It is an odd fact that the subsequent explosion of empirical work on economic growth, has rarely returned to this question, choosing to focus instead on explaining differences in average growth rates across countries, computed over several decades In this essay and in recent research (Hall and Jones 1996), we examine economic levels instead of economic growth Note: This is not an abstract but is the initial paragraph of the paper
175 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The Productivity of Nations: A Review of American Economic Review papers and Proceedings, May 1997 as mentioned in this paper, version 1.01 Prepared for the American economic review Papers and Proceedings.
Abstract: January 1997, Version 1.01 Prepared for the American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings , May 1997. See also "The Productivity of Nations" (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
136 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The authors argue that endogenous fertility and increasing returns to scale are the fundamental ingredients in understanding endogenous growth, and that increasing returns translates this increase in scale into rising per capita income, which leads the scale of the economy to grow over time.
Abstract: Why do economies exhibit sustained growth in per capita income? This paper argues that endogenous fertility and increasing returns to scale are the fundamental ingredients in understanding endogenous growth. Endogenous fertility leads the scale of the economy to grow over time. Increasing returns translates this increase in scale into rising per capita income. A justification for increasing returns rather than linearity in the equation for technological progress is the fundamental insight of the idea-based growth literature according to this view. Endogenous fertility together with the increasing returns associated with the nonrivalry of ideas generates endogenous growth.
52 citations
TL;DR: The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in the distribution of GDP per worker around the world as mentioned in this paper, and the net result of these changes is a movement in the shape of the world income distribution from something that looks like a normal distribution in 1960 to a bi-modal "twin-peaks" distribution in 1988.
Abstract: The post-World War II period has seen substantial changes in the distribution of GDP per worker around the world. In the upper half of the distribution, a number of countries have exhibited large increases in income relative to the richest countries. In the bottom half, several countries have seen incomes fall relative to the richest countries. The net result of these changes is a movement in the shape of the world income distribution from something that looks like a normal distribution in 1960 to a bi-modal "twin-peaks" distribution in 1988. Projecting these changes into the future suggests a number of interesting findings. First, it seems likely that the U.S. will lose its position as the country with the highest level of GDP per worker. Second, growth miracles have been more common in recent decades than growth disasters. If these dynamics continue, the future income distribution will involve far more "rich" countries and far fewer "poor" countries than currently observed.
50 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This paper examined the role of sectors in aggregate convergence for 14 OECD countries during 1970-1987 and found that manufacturing shows little evidence of either labor productivity or multifactor productivity convergence, while other sectors, especially services, are driving the aggregate convergence result.
Abstract: This paper examines the role of sectors in aggregate convergence for 14 OECD countries during 1970-1987. The major finding is that manufacturing shows little evidence of either labor productivity or multifactor productivity convergence, while other sectors, especially services, are driving the aggregate convergence result. To determine the robustness of the convergence results, the paper introduces a new measure of multifactor productivity which avoids many problems inherent to traditional measures of total factor productivity when comparing productivity levels. The lack of convergence in manufacturing is robust to the method of calculating multifactor productivity.
46 citations
TL;DR: The theoretical framework analyzed in this paper provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.
Abstract: At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.
31 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The theoretical framework analyzed in this article provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.
Abstract: At least since 1950, the United States has been stimulated by increases in educational attainment, increases in research intensity, and the increased openness and development of the world economy. Such changes suggest, contrary to the conventional view, that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state balanced growth path. The theoretical framework analyzed here provides a coherent interpretation of this evidence and indicates that when these increases cease and the U.S. economy reaches its steady state, U.S. per capita growth can be expected to fall to a rate of approximately 1/4 its post-war average.
14 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors derive analytically the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound on the true Social Rate of Return.
Abstract: A large, empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D ranging from 30 percent to over 100 percent, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in research. This conclusion is challenged by the new growth theory. We derive analytically the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature. We show that these estimates represent a lower bound on the true social rate of return. Using a conservative estimate of the rate of return to R&D of about 30 percent, optimal R&D investment is at least four times larger than actual investment.
TL;DR: The authors argue that endogenous fertility and increasing returns to scale are the fundamental ingredients in understanding endogenous growth, and that increasing returns translates this increase in scale into rising per capita income, which leads the scale of the economy to grow over time.
Abstract: Why do economies exhibit sustained growth in per capita income? This paper argues that endogenous fertility and increasing returns to scale are the fundamental ingredients in understanding endogenous growth. Endogenous fertility leads the scale of the economy to grow over time. Increasing returns translates this increase in scale into rising per capita income. A justification for increasing returns rather than linearity in the equation for technological progress is the fundamental insight of the idea-based growth literature according to this view. Endogenous fertility together with the increasing returns associated with the nonrivalry of ideas generates endogenous growth.