Brucellosis caused by Brucella melitensis is considered to be one of the most important zoonotic diseases in China In this study, Conventional bio-typing, MLVA (multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis), and WGS (whole-genome sequencing)-SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) were used to study the genetic similarity of B melitensis in northern and southern China and analyze its relationship with worldwide lineages Currently, the distribution of species/biovars of B melitensis has obviously changed, and B melitensis has become the dominant species in southern regions of China Strains from the southern had a common geographic origin with strains from the northern Many MLVA-16 events were shared in the genotypes of the southern and northern strains, suggest that genotypic movement occurred from north to south Based on WGS-SNP analysis, strains from different provinces were closely related and may have descended from one common ancestor, suggests that the southern strains originated from northern China These data indicate that B melitensis is a latent "travel bacterium" that spread and expanded from North China to South China Moreover, B melitensis strains from China are also genetically related to strains from other Asian regions (Kazakhstan, Russia, Mongolia, and India) The movement of infected sheep and their products requires control

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/22221751.2020.1788995

Brucella melitensis, a latent "travel bacterium," continual spread and expansion from Northern to Southern China and its relationship to worldwide lineages.

Hinggan League is located in the Northeast of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the historically endemic area of animal and human brucellosis In this study, the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis were analyzed, and the genotypic profile and antimicrobial susceptibilities of Brucella melitensis strains isolated from humans in Hinggan League were investigated The epidemic characteristics were described using case number, constituent ratio, and rate The 418 human blood samples were collected and tested by bacteriology, and suspect colonies were isolated and identified by conventional biotyping assays, the VITEK 20 microbial identification system, and AMOS (Brucella abortus, B melitensis, B ovis, and B suis)-PCR Subsequently, all strains were genotyped using multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) assays, and the antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of Brucella strains against the 10 most commonly used antibiotics was determined by microdilution method A total of 22 848 cases of human brucellosis were reported from 2004 to 2019, with an annual average incidence of 872/100 000 The incidence rates in developed areas of animal husbandry (Horqin Youyi Qianqi [1612/100 000] and Horqin Youyi Zhongqi [1121/100 000]) were significantly higher than those in forest areas (Arxan [192/100 000]) (χ2 = 32561, P < 0001) In addition, peak morbidity occurred during May–August, accounting for 726% (16582/22 848) of cases The highest number of cases occurred in the 40+ age group, accounting for 444% (10 137/22484) of cases, and morbidity in males was significantly higher than that in females in all age groups (χ2 = 29997, P < 0001), the most common occupation was farmers A total of 54 B melitensis strains were divided into 37 genotypes (GT1–37) with 80–100% genetic similarity All 25 strains were sensitive to seven tested antibiotics, phenotypic resistance to cotrimoxazole and azithromycin was observed in 5 (20%) and 25 (100%) of the isolates, respectively Human brucellosis exhibited a significant increasing trend and B melitensis is the main pathogen responsible for human brucellosis in this region Improved surveillance of infected animals (sheep) and limiting their transfer and trade are optional strategies for decreasing the incidence of this disease

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Epidemiologically characteristics of human brucellosis and antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of Brucella melitensis in Hinggan League of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China.

Background Human brucellosis imposes a heavy burden on the health and economy of endemic regions. Since 2011, China has reported at least 35,000 human brucellosis cases annually, with more than 90% of these cases reported in the northern. Given the alarmingly high incidence and variation in the geographical distribution of human brucellosis cases, there is an urgent need to decipher the causes of such variation in geographical distribution. Method We conducted a retrospective epidemiological study in Shaanxi Province from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2018 to investigate the association between meteorological factors and transmission of human brucellosis according to differences in geographical distribution and seasonal fluctuation in northwestern China for the first time. Results Human brucellosis cases were mainly distributed in the Shaanbei upland plateau before 2008 and then slowly extended towards the southern region with significant seasonal fluctuation. The results of quasi-Poisson generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) indicated that air temperature, sunshine duration, rainfall, relative humidity, and evaporation with maximum lag time within 7 months played crucial roles in the transmission of human brucellosis with seasonal fluctuation. Compared with the Shaanbei upland plateau, Guanzhong basin had more obvious fluctuations in the occurrence of human brucellosis due to changes in meteorological factors. Additionally, the established GAMM model showed high accuracy in predicting the occurrence of human brucellosis based on the meteorological factors. Conclusion These findings may be used to predict the seasonal fluctuations of human brucellosis and to develop reliable and cost-effective prevention strategies in Shaanxi Province and other areas with similar environmental conditions.

Spatiotemporal expansion of human brucellosis in Shaanxi Province, Northwestern China and model for risk prediction

Stock price prediction is a challenging and important task in finance, with many potential applications in investment, risk management, and portfolio optimization. In this paper, we propose a bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model for predicting the future price of a stock based on its historical prices. The Bi-LSTM model is a variant of the popular LSTM model that is capable of processing input sequences in both forward and backward directions, allowing it to capture both short- and long-term dependencies in the data. We apply the Bi-LSTM model to historical stock price data for Apple Inc. and evaluate its performance using mean squared error (MSE) and visual inspection of actual vs. predicted prices. Our experiments show that the Bi-LSTM model is able to make accurate predictions on the testing data and capture some of the trends and patterns in the data, although it may struggle with sudden changes in the market. Overall, our results suggest that the Bi-LSTM model is a promising tool for stock price prediction and has many potential applications in finance and investment.

Challenge and Opportunity: Deep Learning-Based Stock Price Prediction by Using Bi-Directional LSTM Model

In this study, MLVA (multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis) genotype data of Brucella strains from 11 countries along the Silk Road were downloaded from the MLVAbank. MLVA data of strains were applied to the constructed Minimum Spanning Tree to explore the species/biovars distribution, geographic origins, and genetic relationships of the strains analyzed. Moreover, whole-genome sequencing-single-nucleotide polymorphism (WGS-SNP) phylogenetic analysis of the genome of Brucella melitensis strains from GenBank was performed to discriminate the relatedness of strains further and investigate the transmission pattern of B. melitensis brucellosis. A total of 1,503 Brucella strains were analyzed in this study: 431 Brucella abortus strains (29.8%), 1,009 B. melitensis strains (65.7%), and 63 Brucella suis strains (4.5%). B. melitensis biovar 3 was the dominant species and was shown to be widespread in all of the examined regions, suggesting that the prevention and surveillance of the B. melitensis population are a main challenge in these countries. A wide host spectrum was observed for this Brucella population; many animal reservoirs are a potential reason for the continuous brucellosis circulation in these countries. Although the B. abortus strains from the examined regions had common geographic origins, only a few shared genotypes were observed in different countries. These data revealed that the majority of B. abortus strains were spreading within the national borders. However, the B. melitensis strains from Italy originated from a Western Mediterranean lineage; strains from the other 10 countries originated from Eastern Mediterranean lineage, and this lineage was shared by strains from three to nine different countries, suggesting that the introduction and reintroduction of the disease in the 10 countries might have occurred in the past. Furthermore, the most shared MLVA-16 genotypes were formed in the B. melitensis strains from China, Kazakhstan, and Turkey, suggesting that the introduction and trade in sheep and goats have occurred frequently in these countries. WGS-SNP analysis showed that the B. melitensis in this study originated from the Malta (Italy) region. According to their territorial affiliation between four clade strains from these countries in genotype B, the absence of a clear differentiation suggests that strains continuously expand and spread in countries along with Silk Road. Active exchange and trade of animals (sheep and goats) among these countries are reasonable explanations. B. suis strains from different nations showed unique geographic origins and epidemiological characteristics. Therefore, there is an urgent need for the control of transfer and trade of infected sheep (goats) in countries along the Silk Road, namely, the strengthening of the entry-exit quarantine of sheep and goats and improvements in the diagnosis of animal brucellosis.

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Investigation of Genetic Relatedness of Brucella Strains in Countries Along the Silk Road.

The rate of brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, has rapidly increased in humans brucellosis(HB) in recent years. In 1950–2018, a total of 684,380 HB cases (median 2274/year (interquartile range (IQR) 966–8325)) were reported to the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System in mainland China. The incidence of HB peaked in 2014 (4.32/100,000), and then showed a downward trend; we predict that it will maintain a steady downward trend in 2019–2020. Since 2015, the incidence of HB has shown opposite trends in the north and south of China; rates in the north have fallen and rates in the south have increased. In 2004–2018, the most significant increases in incidence of HB were in Yunnan (IQR 0.002–0.463/100,000), Hubei (IQR 0.000–0.338/100,000), and Guangdong (IQR 0.015–0.350/100,000). The areas where HB occurs have little overlap with areas with high per capita GDP in China. The “high–high” clusters of HB are located in northeastern China (Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Gansu), and the “low–low” clusters of HB are located in southern China (Yunnan, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Guangxi, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Hunan). In recent years, the incidence of HB in China has been controlled to some extent, but the incidence of HB has increased in southern China, and the disease has spread geographically in China from north to south. Further research is needed to address this change and to continue to explore the relationship between the incidence of HB and relevant factors.

https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/7/2382/pdf

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Human Brucellosis in China, 1950-2018.

Electric spindle is a key functional component of CNC machining equipment including CNC machine tools, and its reliability level is a key bottleneck factor restricting the reliability of high-end CNC equipment. So far, the research on the reliability evaluation method of electric spindle is still in its infancy, and there is a lack of Systematic and complete theoretical support. The motorized spindle is a typical high-reliability and long-life product, and it is difficult to fail or fail due to obvious performance degradation within a limited test time. Therefore, the traditional reliability evaluation method based on statistical theory is not effective. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out the early reliability test of the motorized spindle and the reliability evaluation of the motorized spindle without failure data, which is of great significance to reasonably evaluate the reliability level of the motorized spindle. At present, when there is no failure data or very little failure data for the motorized spindle of the machine tool, only the point estimate of the parameter or the one-sided confidence interval of the parameter can be calculated, and it is extremely difficult to obtain the point estimate and the interval estimate at the same time, which will affect the reliability analysis results. Consistency. In order to solve this problem, this paper takes a certain type of CNC machine tool motorized spindle as the research object, and determines the monitoring points and monitoring information according to the failure analysis of similar motorized spindles; combines the test information to evaluate the reliability of the motorized spindle without failure data. The reliability evaluation method of the motorized spindle proposed in this paper can effectively avoid the problem that the traditional method cannot be analyzed when there is no failure data, and provides a new idea for the reliability evaluation of the motorized spindle.

/pdf/reliability-evaluation-of-electro-spindle-based-on-no-v8hnt9xd.pdf

Reliability evaluation of electro spindle based on no-failure data

Background Chickenpox is an old but easily neglected infectious disease. Although chickenpox is preventable by vaccines, vaccine breakthroughs often occur, and the chickenpox epidemic is on the rise. Chickenpox is not included in the list of regulated communicable diseases that must be reported and controlled by public and health departments; therefore, it is crucial to rapidly identify and report varicella outbreaks during the early stages. The Baidu index (BDI) can supplement the traditional surveillance system for infectious diseases, such as brucellosis and dengue, in China. The number of reported chickenpox cases and internet search data also showed a similar trend. BDI can be a useful tool to display the outbreak of infectious diseases. Objective This study aimed to develop an efficient disease surveillance method that uses BDI to assist in traditional surveillance. Methods Chickenpox incidence data (weekly from January 2017 to June 2021) reported by the Yunnan Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention were obtained to evaluate the relationship between the incidence of chickenpox and BDI. We applied a support vector machine regression (SVR) model and a multiple regression prediction model with BDI to predict the incidence of chickenpox. In addition, we used the SVR model to predict the number of chickenpox cases from June 2021 to the first week of April 2022. Results The analysis showed that there was a close correlation between the weekly number of newly diagnosed cases and the BDI. In the search terms we collected, the highest Spearman correlation coefficient was 0.747. Most BDI search terms, such as “chickenpox,” “chickenpox treatment,” “treatment of chickenpox,” “chickenpox symptoms,” and “chickenpox virus,” trend consistently. Some BDI search terms, such as “chickenpox pictures,” “symptoms of chickenpox,” “chickenpox vaccine,” and “is chickenpox vaccine necessary,” appeared earlier than the trend of “chickenpox virus.” The 2 models were compared, the SVR model performed better in all the applied measurements: fitting effect, R2=0.9108, root mean square error (RMSE)=96.2995, and mean absolute error (MAE)=73.3988; and prediction effect, R2=0.548, RMSE=189.1807, and MAE=147.5412. In addition, we applied the SVR model to predict the number of reported cases weekly in Yunnan from June 2021 to April 2022 using the same period of the BDI. The results showed that the fluctuation of the time series from July 2021 to April 2022 was similar to that of the last year and a half with no change in the level of prevention and control. Conclusions These findings indicated that the BDI in Yunnan Province can predict the incidence of chickenpox in the same period. Thus, the BDI is a useful tool for monitoring the chickenpox epidemic and for complementing traditional monitoring systems.

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Chenyu Han

Papers

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Human Brucellosis in China, 1950-2018.

Reliability evaluation of electro spindle based on no-failure data

Using Baidu Index Data to Improve Chickenpox Surveillance in Yunnan, China: Infodemiology Study