Showing papers by "Christopher A. Davis published in 2005"
TL;DR: The authors hypothesize that the additional detail and structure provided by high resolution becomes a “liability” when the forecasts are scored by traditional verification metrics, because such metrics sharply penalize forecasts with small temporal or spatial errors of predicted features.
Abstract: The authors address a particular example of the general question of whether high-resolution forecasts provide additional deterministic skill beyond what can be achieved with a coarser-resolution model. To this end, real-time forecasts using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with grid increments of 30 and 3.3 km are compared over a domain centered on the complex terrain region of southern New Mexico during the 1 June 2002 to 1 June 2003 period. The authors use time series of surface data to evaluate the relative ability of the two forecasts to capture significant temporal variations of wind. The authors hypothesize that the additional detail and structure provided by high resolution becomes a “liability” when the forecasts are scored by traditional verification metrics, because such metrics sharply penalize forecasts with small temporal or spatial errors of predicted features. Thus, a set of verification metrics is designed that is increasingly tolerant ...
48 citations
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the capability of the WRF RCM by evaluating the modeled warm season regional climate of the central US and identified the physical mechanisms at both planetary and local scales, and is therefore ideal for evaluating the performance of a RCM.
Abstract: Regional Climate Models (RCMs) derive benefits over global climate models through a more accurate representation of regional climate forcings, achieved through higher resolution orography, land-water contrasts and land surface characteristics. Regional forcings can produce statistically significant climate signals, particularly for processes forced directly by topography including orographic rainfall and monsoon circulations. Such high resolution climate scenarios are important for resource management and impact assessment. Better resolved small-scale processes can have improved large-scale impacts and, in addition to downscaling climate information, RCMs can be used to study the upscale impact of regional forcings on the large-scale climate. The high order numerical accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the extensive physics options have motivated the development of WRF as a regional climate model. Previous regional climate research using WRF RCM (Done et al., 2004) has focused on the region of the Western United States where topographic forcings play an important role in defining the regional climate. The work presented herein represents the next step in assessing the capability of WRF RCM by evaluating the modeled warm season regional climate of the central US. Warm season rainfall over the central US has been identified with physical mechanisms at both planetary and local scales, and is therefore ideal for evaluating the performance of a RCM. In addition to evaluating WRF RCM, our goal is to identify and understand recurrent errors in the long-term simulation of warm season rainfall.
6 citations
04 Aug 2005
2 citations
26 Oct 2005
TL;DR: The Bow Echo and Mesoscale Controlled Vortex (MCV) Experiment (BAMEX) as discussed by the authors is a study of life cycles of convective systems using three and multiple, mobile ground-based sensors.
Abstract: e Bow Echo and Mesoscale ctive Vortex (MCV) Experiment EX) is a study of life cycles of ale convective systems using three t and multiple, mobile ground-based ents. It represents a combination of lated programs to investigate (a) choes (Fujita, 1978), principally which produce damaging surface and last at least 4 hours and (b) convective systems which produce ved mesoscale convective vortices s) (Bartels and Maddox, 1991). The was conducted from 20 May to 6 003, based at MidAmerica Airport ascoutah, Illinois. A detailed w of the project, including inary results appears in Davis et al. . The reader wishing to view sed BAMEX data should visit ww.joss.ucar.edu/bamex/catalog/. this keynote address, I will focus on dy of MCVs, based particularly ations from airborne Doppler radar opsondes and wind profilers. This will present results from the last f the project, the bow echo and ive MCV of 5-6 July, 2003. This as been studied in detail in a nion set of papers by Wakimoto et 5a, 2005b).
1 citations