Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/dbs/China2011/Day2/Lectures/MODIS_MOD13_NDVI_referenc.pdf

Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices

Google Earth Engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

/pdf/bounding-the-role-of-black-carbon-in-the-climate-system-a-1fc3novd9r.pdf

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

This chapter reviews the main missions of NASA and, secondarily, other US agencies, providing global observation of the Earth’s environment, with special emphasis on Landsat and the Earth Observing System (EOS) missions. An analysis of the main policies towards long-term data archival and accessibility, and an assessment of the immediate future is also addressed.

NASA Earth Observation Satellite Missions for Global Change Research

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is a comprehensive multispectral imager covering the spectral range between 0.4 µm and 12.0 µm. It obtains full global coverage using a ∼3000 km swath on a daily basis in 22 spectral bands at nadir spatial resolutions between 0.38 km and 0.76 km. VIIRS was launched on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) mission from Vandenberg Air Force Base on October 28, 2011. The instrument was activated on November 10, 2011. Shortwave scene data became available immediately after the nadir aperture doors were opened on November 21, 2011, while the thermal cooler doors were opened on Jan 18, 2012. By the following day Suomi-NPP was acquiring its first active fire detections. The seven VIIRS thermal infrared bands were considered stable starting Jan. 20, 2012. This paper provides a summary of the status of on-going data processing, archiving, and early on-orbit evaluation of the VIIRS Land Environmental Data Records (EDRs).

Status of the Suomi NPP visible/infrared imager radiometer suite's (VIIRS) land environmental data records (EDRs) after early evaluation of on-orbit performance

Climate Change and Africa: Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: assumptions, realities and future investments

Environmental degradation and natural resource scarcity are cited as two of the underlying causes of conflict in Sudan. In a study of the rangelands (albaja) of Kordofan and White Nile States, we use biophysical data, interviews, and satellite data to reveal how owners of large-scale, mechanized agriculture operations are progressively modifying the landscape at the expense of pastoral nomads. Our analysis shows that annual vegetation fires are used by the farmers to create buffers around the expanding mechanized farming operations to keep nomads' livestock away. This annual burning in the short term is depriving pastoralists of fodder and in the longer term is degrading the rangeland by favoring tree and grass species unpalatable to livestock. These changes in the landscape render pastoralists and traditional small-scale farmers increasingly marginalized. The competing demands for land are resulting in heightened tensions with parallels to the underlying causes of conflict in the adjacent region of Darfur.

Fire and land use change heighten tensions between pastoral nomads and mechanized farmers in Kordofan and White Nile States, Sudan

Despite growing agricultural production in the past decades, drought remains the leading factor of crop loss, threatening food security. Satellite observation has proved a practical and dynamic tool for drought monitoring. However, the drought impacts on agriculture at large scales still remain poorly examined, especially at a finer spatial and temporal resolution from remote sensing. This study investigates the impacts of drought on crop yield in Kansas wheat growing regions using MODIS data. The results show that drought has time-varying impacts during the growing season with significant impacts observed between Mid-April and Early-June. During this key alert period, we generally find high agricultural impacts with the most severe drought effects during the grain filling stage around Mid-May. This research provides a first step towards prototyping an agricultural drought monitoring system, which can alert crop analysts of agricultural drought vulnerable areas/periods and provide tools for assessing crop outlooks.

Christopher O. Justice

Papers

NASA Earth Observation Satellite Missions for Global Change Research

Status of the Suomi NPP visible/infrared imager radiometer suite's (VIIRS) land environmental data records (EDRs) after early evaluation of on-orbit performance

Climate Change and Africa: Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: assumptions, realities and future investments

Fire and land use change heighten tensions between pastoral nomads and mechanized farmers in Kordofan and White Nile States, Sudan

Evaluating the impacts of drought on crop production from satellite observations: A case study in Kansas