Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques.

Data Mining Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

This research deals with the soft computing methodology of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). Here a mathematical description of FCM is presented and a new methodology based on fuzzy logic techniques for developing the FCM is examined. The capability and usefulness of FCM in modeling complex systems and the application of FCM to modeling and describing the behavior of a heat exchanger system is presented. The applicability of FCM to model the supervisor of complex systems is discussed and the FCM-supervisor for evaluating the performance of a system is constructed; simulation results are presented and discussed.

Modeling complex systems using fuzzy cognitive maps

Active Hebbian learning algorithm to train fuzzy cognitive maps

Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) is a soft computing technique for modeling systems. It combines synergistically the theories of neural networks and fuzzy logic. The methodology of developing FCMs is easily adaptable but relies on human experience and knowledge, and thus FCMs exhibit weaknesses and dependence on human experts. The critical dependence on the expert’s opinion and knowledge, and the potential convergence to undesired steady states are deficiencies of FCMs. In order to overcome these deficiencies and improve the efficiency and robustness of FCM a possible solution is the utilization of learning methods. This research work proposes the utilization of the unsupervised Hebbian algorithm to nonlinear units for training FCMs. Using the proposed learning procedure, the FCM modifies its fuzzy causal web as causal patterns change and as experts update their causal knowledge.

Fuzzy Cognitive Map Learning Based on Nonlinear Hebbian Rule

A fuzzy cognitive map approach to differential diagnosis of specific language impairment

This paper investigates a hybrid methodology that combines fuzzy logic and neural networks, Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), for modeling and controlling Supervisory Control Systems. A mathematical description of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) will be presented and new construction methods will be extensively examined. A Fuzzy Cognitive Map will be developed to model and control a process example and the Supervisor-FCM model characteristics will be discussed. There is a going need for more autonomous and intelligent systems, especially in Complex Systems area, the application of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for modeling the Supervisor may contribute to develop more sophisticated systems.

Chrysostomos D. Stylios

Papers

Modeling complex systems using fuzzy cognitive maps

Active Hebbian learning algorithm to train fuzzy cognitive maps

Fuzzy Cognitive Map Learning Based on Nonlinear Hebbian Rule

A fuzzy cognitive map approach to differential diagnosis of specific language impairment

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in modeling supervisory control systems