Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

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Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

This article introduces the FAO crop model AquaCrop. It simulates attainable yields of major herbaceous crops as a function of water consumption under rainfed, supplemental, deficit, and full irrigation conditions. The growth engine of AquaCrop is water-driven, in that transpiration is calculated first and translated into biomass using a conservative, crop-specific parameter: the biomass water productivity, normalized for atmospheric evaporative demand and air CO 2 concentration. The normalization is to make AquaCrop applicable to diverse locations and seasons. Simulations are performed on thermal time, but can be on calendar time, in daily time-steps. The model uses canopy ground cover instead of leaf area index (LAI) as the basis to calculate transpiration and to separate out soil evaporation from transpiration. Crop yield is calculated as the product of biomass and harvest index (HI). At the start of yield formation period, HI increases linearly with time after a lag phase, until near physiological maturity. Other than for the yield, there is no biomass partitioning into the various organs. Crop responses to water deficits are simulated with four modifiers that are functions of fractional available soil water modulated by evaporative demand, based on the differential sensitivity to water stress of four key plant processes: canopy expansion, stomatal control of transpiration, canopy senescence, and HI. The HI can be modified negatively or positively, depending on stress level, timing, and canopy duration. AquaCrop uses a relatively small number of parameters (explicit and mostly intuitive) and attempts to balance simplicity, accuracy, and robustness. The model is aimed mainly at practitioner-type end-users such as those working for extension services, consulting engineers, governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and various kinds of farmers associations. It is also designed to fit the need of economists and policy specialists who use simple models for planning and scenario analysis.

AquaCrop-The FAO Crop Model to Simulate Yield Response to Water: I. Concepts and Underlying Principles

CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond.Keating et?al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands.This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et?al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a "next generation" framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics. APSIM is an agricultural modelling framework used extensively worldwide.It can simulate a wide range of agricultural systems.It begins its third decade evolving into an agro-ecosystem framework.

Cj J. Smith

Papers

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation