Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

This paper investigates empirically the effect of tax reform on fiscal space in developing countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel dataset comprising 99 developing countries (of which 37 Least developed countries—LDCs) over the period 1980–2015. It has shown empirical evidence that tax reform is associated with greater fiscal space in developing countries, with this positive impact being particularly higher for LDCs than for the set of other countries in the full sample. Furthermore, the higher the degree of openness to international trade, the greater is the positive effect of tax reform on fiscal space. In light of the importance of securing greater fiscal space to finance development needs, policymakers in developing countries should pursue their tax reform in the context of greater trade openness, notably with the assistance of both bilateral partners (developed countries) and relevant international institutions.

Tax reform and fiscal space in developing countries

According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.

Can They Do It All? Fiscal Space in Low-Income Countries

Investment booms and asset "bubbles" are often the consequence of heavily leveraged borrowing and speculations of persistent growth in asset demand. We show theoretically that dynamic interactions between leveraged borrowing and persistent asset demand can generate a multiplier-accelerator mechanism that transforms a one-time technological innovation into large and long-lasting boom-bust cycles. The predictions are consistent with the basic features of investment booms and the consequent asset-market crashes led by excessive credit expansion.

Leveraged borrowing and boom-bust cycles

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What constitutes fiscal space or a prudent level of debt to conduct countercyclical policy while ensuring debt sustainability? This paper addresses the question by exploring the relationship between debt dynamics, and the probabilistic distribution of the primary balance and the effective interest rate. This proposed approach is useful in situations where the lack of relevant data makes it difficult to estimate detailed fiscal reaction functions. Applying this approach to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) and based on various debt ceiling assumptions, we find that about 60 percent of these countries presently have fiscal policy space to address adverse shocks, subject to the availability of domestic and external financing. Countries with strong institutional capacity tend to have more fiscal space, and countries with weak institutional capacity, mostly countries in conflict and fragile states, tend to lack fiscal space.

https://www.imf.org/-/media/Websites/IMF/imported-full-text-pdf/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/_wp16163.ashx

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level : Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level; Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

This paper provides an overview of the current productivity trends and their potential drivers exploring the impact of Global Value Chain (GVC) participation in the European economies and in the US taking into account the scope of country industry digital development. In particular, we investigate whether the reorganization of the production activity and the adoption of new business models as captured by the extent of GVC participation contribute to gain fresh insights about the factors affecting the productivity slowdown in the digital age. The analysis covers 12 European countries (AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, IT, NL, PR, SE, UK) plus the US and 30 industries (ISIC Rev. 4) over the years 2000-2014. We empirically test the linkages between productivity growth and GVC participation in an augmented production function framework and we find: a) a positive and statistically significant impact of forward and backward participation on productivity growth; b) a stronger productivity growth effect in the digital sectors of forward compared to backward linkages; c) relatively bigger productivity returns from forward participation in the medium intensive digital sectors.

Claudio Battiati

Papers

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level : Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

R&D, growth, and macroprudential policy in an economy undergoing boom-bust cycles

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level; Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

Productivity growth and global value chain participation in the digital age