According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

We characterize asset return linkages during periods of stress by an extremal dependence measure Contrary to correlation analysis, this nonparametric measure is not predisposed toward the normal distribution and can allow for nonlinear relationships Our estimates for the G-5 countries suggest that simultaneous crashes between stock markets are much more likely than between bond markets However, for the assessment of financial system stability the widely disregarded cross-asset perspective is particularly important For example, our data show that stock-bond contagion is approximately as frequent as flight to quality from stocks into bonds Extreme cross-border linkages are surprisingly similar to national linkages, illustrating a potential downside to international financial integration

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Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods

Asset returns and inflation

Preface 1. Introduction Part I. Basic Theory: 2. Locational choice of the household 3. Equilibrium land use and optimal land use: single household type 4. Equilibrium land use and optimal land use: multiple household types 5. Urban aggregates and city sizes Part II. Extensions With Externalities: 6. Local public goods 7. Neighborhood externalities and traffic congestion 8. External economies, product variety, and city sizes Appendixes References Author index Subject index.

Urban economic theory : land use and city size

Part 1: Introduction. Prologue 1. Introduction Part 2: The Micro Economics of Property Markets 2. The Consumption of Commercial Property 3. The Location of Commercial Property 4. The Production of Commercial Property 5. Rent in the Commercial Property Market Part 3: The Macroeconomics of Commercial Property 6. Property Macroeconomics 7. Short Cycles in Property Markets 8. Short Term Property Forecasting 9. Property Investment and Economic Growth Part 4: The Financial Economics of Property 10. Property Assets and Investment Vehicles 11. Valuation, Pricing and Performance Measurement 12. Indirect Investment, Finance and Funding of Property 13. International Property Markets Part 5: Conclusions 14. Conclusions

The Economics of Commercial Property Markets

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks has produced anomalous results, with stocks often appearing to offer a perverse hedge. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalization stock returns is carried out with inflation divided into expected and unexpected components. The analyses are undertaken using an error correction approach. In the long run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly private market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from those of stocks.

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The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: A multi-factor error correction approach

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies, and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the central London office market over the 1976-96 period. The model is shown to dynamically track the market well and the severe 1985-96 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the surge in real interest rates. The latter affects both construction and rental adjustment.

The Workings of the London Office Market

This paper presents estimates of an equilibrium-based dynamic adjustment model of the office market, using supply and demand relationships to link construction, absorption, vacancies and rents to employment growth and real interest rates. The model is estimated using data from the City of London office market over 1977–1996. The model tracks the market dynamically, and the severe 1985–1996 cycle is shown to be related to the cycle in employment growth and the movement of real interest rates. The latter directly affects both construction and real rent levels.

Literature on investors' holding periods for securities suggests that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with shorter holding periods. In real estate, high transaction costs and illiquidity imply longer holding periods. Research on depreciation and obsolescence suggests that there might be an optimal holding period. Sales rates and holding periods for U.K. institutional real estate are analyzed, using a proportional hazards model, over an 18-year period. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors, with marked differences by type of property and over time. The results shed light on investor behavior.

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Colin Lizieri

Papers

The Economics of Commercial Property Markets

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: A multi-factor error correction approach

The Workings of the London Office Market

The Workings of the London Office Market

Timing and the Holding Periods of Institutional Real Estate