An effective response to climate change demands rapid replacement of fossil carbon energy sources. This must occur concurrently with an ongoing rise in total global energy consumption. While many modelled scenarios have been published claiming to show that a 100% renewable electricity system is achievable, there is no empirical or historical evidence that demonstrates that such systems are in fact feasible. Of the studies published to date, 24 have forecast regional, national or global energy requirements at sufficient detail to be considered potentially credible. We critically review these studies using four novel feasibility criteria for reliable electricity systems needed to meet electricity demand this century. These criteria are: (1) consistency with mainstream energy-demand forecasts; (2) simulating supply to meet demand reliably at hourly, half-hourly, and five-minute timescales, with resilience to extreme climate events; (3) identifying necessary transmission and distribution requirements; and (4) maintaining the provision of essential ancillary services. Evaluated against these objective criteria, none of the 24 studies provides convincing evidence that these basic feasibility criteria can be met. Of a maximum possible unweighted feasibility score of seven, the highest score for any one study was four. Eight of 24 scenarios (33%) provided no form of system simulation. Twelve (50%) relied on unrealistic forecasts of energy demand. While four studies (17%; all regional) articulated transmission requirements, only two scenarios—drawn from the same study—addressed ancillary-service requirements. In addition to feasibility issues, the heavy reliance on exploitation of hydroelectricity and biomass raises concerns regarding environmental sustainability and social justice. Strong empirical evidence of feasibility must be demonstrated for any study that attempts to construct or model a low-carbon energy future based on any combination of low-carbon technology. On the basis of this review, efforts to date seem to have substantially underestimated the challenge and delayed the identification and implementation of effective and comprehensive decarbonization pathways.

Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region’s low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling.

Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

Research on climate change impacts on renewable energy is becoming increasingly relevant due to the vulnerability of the sector and to the continual development of methodologies and availability of data. Public and private decision-making needs specific research. However, many gaps still exist in certain geographical regions and technologies. Providing economic estimates with a value chain perspective are also missing from most papers. This paper addresses the most relevant studies that project quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on solar, wind, hydro and other renewable generation technologies. Summary tables of impacts and projections are provided so that researchers, governments and the private sector may have an accurate view of the state-of-the-art on this topic.

/pdf/climate-change-impacts-on-renewable-energy-generation-a-39yhpb0c9r.pdf

Climate change impacts on renewable energy generation. A review of quantitative projections

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

This study assessed the feasibility of mobilising maize and wheat residues for large-scale bioenergy applications in South Africa by establishing sustainable residue removal rates and cost of supply based on different production regions. A key objective was to refine the methodology for estimating crop residue harvesting for bioenergy use, while maintaining soil productivity and avoiding displacement of competing residue uses. At current conditions, the sustainable bioenergy potential from maize and wheat residues was estimated to be about 104 PJ. There is potential to increase the amount of crop residues to 238 PJ through measures such as no till cultivation and adopting improved cropping systems. These estimates were based on minimum residues requirements of 2 t ha−1 for soil erosion control and additional residue amounts to maintain 2% SOC level. At the farm gate, crop residues cost between 0.9 and 1.7 $ GJ−1. About 96% of these residues are available below 1.5 $ GJ−1. In the improved scenario, up to 85% of the biomass is below 1.3 $ GJ−1. For biomass deliveries at the conversion plant, about 36% is below 5 $ GJ−1 while in the optimised scenario, about 87% is delivered below 5$ GJ−1. Co-firing residues with coal results in lower cost of electricity compared to other renewables and significant GHG (CO2 eq) emissions reduction (up to 0.72 tons MWh−1). Establishing sustainable crop residue supply systems in South Africa could start by utilising the existing agricultural infrastructure to secure supply and develop a functional market. It would then be necessary to incentivise improvements across the value chain.

/pdf/current-and-future-technical-economic-and-environmental-3trf57klkr.pdf

Current and future technical, economic and environmental feasibility of maize and wheat residues supply for biomass energy application : Illustrated for South Africa

The study has analysed the effects of various factors on hydroelectric power generation potential to include climate change/variability, water demand, and installation of proposed hydroelectric power schemes in the Zambezi River Basin. An assessment of historical (1970–2000) power potential in relation to climate change/variability at existing hydro electric power schemes(Cahora Bassa, Kariba, Kafue Gorge and Itezhi-Tezhi) in the Zambezi River Basin was conducted. The correlation of hydroelectric power potential with climate change/variability aimed at observing the link and extent of influence of the latter on the former was investigated. In order to predict the future outlook of hydro electric power potential, General Circulation Models (GCM) were used to generate projected precipitation. The monthly simulated precipitation was extracted from the GCM for every sub basin and used to compute future precipitation. Further, future water demand in the sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin were estimated based on the respective population growth rate in each sub basin. Subsequently, water balance model, with projected precipitation and water demand input was used to determine projected run-offs of sub basins of the Zambezi River Basin. .Based on the projected run-offs of sub basins, reservoir storage capacities at existing hydro electric power schemes were estimated. The baseline assessment revealed a strong relationship between hydroelectric power potential and climate change/variability. The study also revealed that the main climate and other risks associated with current and future hydro electric power generation include projected dry years, floods and increasing water demand. The results indicate that the hydroelectric power potential has a tendency towards gradual reduction in its potential in all existing and proposed hydroelectric power schemes owing to climate change and increasing water demand.

/pdf/climate-change-variability-implications-on-hydroelectricity-2n64clfgsp.pdf

Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin

The generation of power within Southern Africa is reviewed. A study is described in which the emission factors for CO2 and NOx were determined experimentally across a wide range of power stations and technologies, and compared to the IPCC default factors. It was found that the CO2 emission factors tended to be at the upper end of the IPCC default range, whereas the NOx emission factors were generally below the low end. The results from South Africa tend to dominate the regional picture at present, but this is likely to change in the near future, as Botswana has announced plans to introduce over 4 000 MWe of coal-fired power stations.

/pdf/determination-of-regional-emission-factors-for-the-power-1t43j7tuwa.pdf

Cornelius Mzezewa

Papers

Climate change/variability implications on hydroelectricity generation in the Zambezi River Basin

Determination of regional emission factors for the power sector in Southern Africa