The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon–climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr-1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.

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Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process-based, large-scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these 'fast' processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire-response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5degrees x 0.5degrees grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO2 concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter-annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 . Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.

Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

/pdf/climate-carbon-cycle-feedback-analysis-results-from-the-2hflmwlg71.pdf

Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison

The eddy covariance technique ascertains the exchange rate of CO2 across the interface between the atmosphere and a plant canopy by measuring the covariance between fluctuations in vertical wind velocity and CO2 mixing ratio. Two decades ago, the method was employed to study CO2 exchange of agricultural crops under ideal conditions during short field campaigns. During the past decade the eddy covariance method has emerged as an important tool for evaluating fluxes of carbon dioxide between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere over the course of a year, and more. At present, the method is being applied in a nearly continuous mode to study carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange at over a hundred and eighty field sites, worldwide. The objective of this review is to assess the eddy covariance method as it is being applied by the global change community on increasingly longer time scales and over less than ideal surfaces.

The eddy covariance method is most accurate when the atmospheric conditions (wind, temperature, humidity, CO2) are steady, the underlying vegetation is homogeneous and it is situated on flat terrain for an extended distance upwind. When the eddy covariance method is applied over natural and complex landscapes or during atmospheric conditions that vary with time, the quantification of CO2 exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere must include measurements of atmospheric storage, flux divergence and advection.

Averaging CO2 flux measurements over long periods (days to year) reduces random sampling error to relatively small values. Unfortunately, data gaps are inevitable when constructing long data records. Data gaps are generally filled with values produced from statistical and empirical models to produce daily and annual sums of CO2 exchange. Filling data gaps with empirical estimates do not introduce significant bias errors because the empirical algorithms are derived from large statistical populations. On the other hand, flux measurement errors can be biased at night when winds are light and intermittent. Nighttime bias errors tend to produce an underestimate in the measurement of ecosystem respiration.

Despite the sources of errors associated with long-term eddy flux measurements, many investigators are producing defensible estimates of annual carbon exchange. When measurements come from nearly ideal sites the error bound on the net annual exchange of CO2 is less than ±50 g C m−2 yr−1. Additional confidence in long-term measurements is growing because investigators are producing values of net ecosystem productivity that are converging with independent values produced by measuring changes in biomass and soil carbon, as long as the biomass inventory studies are conducted over multiple years.

/pdf/assessing-the-eddy-covariance-technique-for-evaluating-38dltwlqrv.pdf

Assessing the eddy covariance technique for evaluating carbon dioxide exchange rates of ecosystems: past, present and future

https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1153&context=natrespapers

Cyril Grivet

Papers

Physiological and environmental regulation of stomatal conductance, photosynthesis and transpiration: a model that includes a laminar boundary layer