Big Data applications are typically associated with systems involving large numbers of users, massive complex software systems, and large-scale heterogeneous computing and storage architectures. The construction of such systems involves many distributed design choices. The end products (e.g., recommendation systems, medical analysis tools, real-time game engines, speech recognizers) thus involve many tunable configuration parameters. These parameters are often specified and hard-coded into the software by various developers or teams. If optimized jointly, these parameters can result in significant improvements. Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for the joint optimization of design choices that is gaining great popularity in recent years. It promises greater automation so as to increase both product quality and human productivity. This review paper introduces Bayesian optimization, highlights some of its methodological aspects, and showcases a wide range of applications.

/pdf/taking-the-human-out-of-the-loop-a-review-of-bayesian-4olcznoudw.pdf

Taking the Human Out of the Loop: A Review of Bayesian Optimization

An overview of model-based geostatistics.- Gaussian models for geostatistical data.- Generalized linear models for geostatistical data.- Classical parameter estimation.- Spatial prediction.- Bayesian inference.- Geostatistical design.

/pdf/model-based-geostatistics-3h5fgto422.pdf

Model-based Geostatistics

We present a European land-only daily high-resolution gridded data set for precipitation and minimum, maximum, and mean surface temperature for the period 1950-2006. This data set improves on previous products in its spatial resolution and extent, time period, number of contributing stations, and attention to finding the most appropriate method for spatial interpolation of daily climate observations. The gridded data are delivered on four spatial resolutions to match the grids used in previous products as well as many of the rotated pole Regional Climate Models (RCMs) currently in use. Each data set has been designed to provide the best estimate of grid box averages rather than point values to enable direct comparison with RCMs. We employ a three-step process of interpolation, by first interpolating the monthly precipitation totals and monthly mean temperature using three-dimensional thin-plate splines, then interpolating the daily anomalies using indicator and universal kriging for precipitation and kriging with an external drift for temperature, then combining the monthly and daily estimates. Interpolation uncertainty is quantified by the provision of daily standard errors for every grid square. The daily uncertainty averaged across the entire region is shown to be largely dependent on the season and number of contributing observations. We examine the effect that interpolation has on the magnitude of the extremes in the observations by calculating areal reduction factors for daily maximum temperature and precipitation events with return periods up to 10 years. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

/pdf/a-european-daily-high-resolution-gridded-data-set-of-surface-4p1onqfxwe.pdf

A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006

Preface. About the Authors. Foreword. Prologue. Part I: Fundamentals. 1. Sampling Plans. 1.1 The 'Curse of Dimensionality' and How to Avoid It. 1.2 Physical versus Computational Experiments. 1.3 Designing Preliminary Experiments (Screening). 1.3.1 Estimating the Distribution of Elementary Effects. 1.4 Designing a Sampling Plan. 1.4.1 Stratification. 1.4.2 Latin Squares and Random Latin Hypercubes. 1.4.3 Space-filling Latin Hypercubes. 1.4.4 Space-filling Subsets. 1.5 A Note on Harmonic Responses. 1.6 Some Pointers for Further Reading. References. 2. Constructing a Surrogate. 2.1 The Modelling Process. 2.1.1 Stage One: Preparing the Data and Choosing a Modelling Approach. 2.1.2 Stage Two: Parameter Estimation and Training. 2.1.3 Stage Three: Model Testing. 2.2 Polynomial Models. 2.2.1 Example One: Aerofoil Drag. 2.2.2 Example Two: a Multimodal Testcase. 2.2.3 What About the k -variable Case? 2.3 Radial Basis Function Models. 2.3.1 Fitting Noise-Free Data. 2.3.2 Radial Basis Function Models of Noisy Data. 2.4 Kriging. 2.4.1 Building the Kriging Model. 2.4.2 Kriging Prediction. 2.5 Support Vector Regression. 2.5.1 The Support Vector Predictor. 2.5.2 The Kernel Trick. 2.5.3 Finding the Support Vectors. 2.5.4 Finding . 2.5.5 Choosing C and epsilon. 2.5.6 Computing epsilon : v -SVR 71. 2.6 The Big(ger) Picture. References. 3. Exploring and Exploiting a Surrogate. 3.1 Searching the Surrogate. 3.2 Infill Criteria. 3.2.1 Prediction Based Exploitation. 3.2.2 Error Based Exploration. 3.2.3 Balanced Exploitation and Exploration. 3.2.4 Conditional Likelihood Approaches. 3.2.5 Other Methods. 3.3 Managing a Surrogate Based Optimization Process. 3.3.1 Which Surrogate for What Use? 3.3.2 How Many Sample Plan and Infill Points? 3.3.3 Convergence Criteria. 3.3.4 Search of the Vibration Isolator Geometry Feasibility Using Kriging Goal Seeking. References. Part II: Advanced Concepts. 4. Visualization. 4.1 Matrices of Contour Plots. 4.2 Nested Dimensions. Reference. 5. Constraints. 5.1 Satisfaction of Constraints by Construction. 5.2 Penalty Functions. 5.3 Example Constrained Problem. 5.3.1 Using a Kriging Model of the Constraint Function. 5.3.2 Using a Kriging Model of the Objective Function. 5.4 Expected Improvement Based Approaches. 5.4.1 Expected Improvement With Simple Penalty Function. 5.4.2 Constrained Expected Improvement. 5.5 Missing Data. 5.5.1 Imputing Data for Infeasible Designs. 5.6 Design of a Helical Compression Spring Using Constrained Expected Improvement. 5.7 Summary. References. 6. Infill Criteria With Noisy Data. 6.1 Regressing Kriging. 6.2 Searching the Regression Model. 6.2.1 Re-Interpolation. 6.2.2 Re-Interpolation With Conditional Likelihood Approaches. 6.3 A Note on Matrix Ill-Conditioning. 6.4 Summary. References. 7. Exploiting Gradient Information. 7.1 Obtaining Gradients. 7.1.1 Finite Differencing. 7.1.2 Complex Step Approximation. 7.1.3 Adjoint Methods and Algorithmic Differentiation. 7.2 Gradient-enhanced Modelling. 7.3 Hessian-enhanced Modelling. 7.4 Summary. References. 8. Multi-fidelity Analysis. 8.1 Co-Kriging. 8.2 One-variable Demonstration. 8.3 Choosing X c and X e . 8.4 Summary. References. 9. Multiple Design Objectives. 9.1 Pareto Optimization. 9.2 Multi-objective Expected Improvement. 9.3 Design of the Nowacki Cantilever Beam Using Multi-objective, Constrained Expected Improvement. 9.4 Design of a Helical Compression Spring Using Multi-objective, Constrained Expected Improvement. 9.5 Summary. References. Appendix: Example Problems. A.1 One-Variable Test Function. A.2 Branin Test Function. A.3 Aerofoil Design. A.4 The Nowacki Beam. A.5 Multi-objective, Constrained Optimal Design of a Helical Compression Spring. A.6 Novel Passive Vibration Isolator Feasibility. References. Index.

Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling: A Practical Guide

https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/65935/01/Forr_09.pdf

Recent advances in surrogate-based optimization

Certain fundamental concepts in the application of statistics to mine valuation on the Witwatersrand are discussed, and general conclusions are drawn regarding the application of the lognormal curve to the frequency distribution of gold values An indication is given of the reliability of present valuation methods on the Rand It is shown that the existing over- and under-valuation of blocks of ore listed as high-grade and low-grade, respectively, can be explained statistically Suggestions are made for the elimination of such errors and for the improvement of the general standard of mine valuation by the use of statistical theory

A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problems on the Witwatersrand

Lognormal-de Wijsian geostatistics for ore evaluation

The global priority of improving neonatal survival could be tackled through the universal implementation of cost-effective maternal and newborn health interventions. Despite 90% of neonatal deaths occurring in low-resource settings, very few evidence-based digital health interventions exist to assist healthcare professionals in clinical decision-making in these settings. To bridge this gap, Neotree was co-developed through an iterative, user-centered design approach in collaboration with healthcare professionals in the UK, Bangladesh, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. It addresses a broad range of neonatal clinical diagnoses and healthcare indicators as opposed to being limited to specific conditions and follows national and international guidelines for newborn care. This digital health intervention includes a mobile application (app) which is designed to be used by healthcare professionals at the bedside. The app enables real-time data capture and provides education in newborn care and clinical decision support via integrated clinical management algorithms. Comprehensive routine patient data are prospectively collected regarding each newborn, as well as maternal data and blood test results, which are used to inform clinical decision making at the bedside. Data dashboards provide healthcare professionals and hospital management a near real-time overview of patient statistics that can be used for healthcare quality improvement purposes. To enable this workflow, the Neotree web editor allows fine-grained customization of the mobile app. The data pipeline manages data flow from the app to secure databases and then to the dashboard. Implemented in three hospitals in two countries so far, Neotree has captured routine data and supported the care of over 21,000 babies and has been used by over 450 healthcare professionals. All code and documentation are open source, allowing adoption and adaptation by clinicians, researchers, and developers.

Software development process of Neotree - a data capture and decision support system to improve newborn healthcare in low-resource settings

The global priority of improving neonatal survival could be tackled through the universal implementation of cost-effective maternal and newborn health interventions. Despite 90% of neonatal deaths occurring in low-resource settings, very few evidence-based digital health interventions exist to assist healthcare professionals in clinical decision-making in these settings. To bridge this gap, Neotree was co-developed through an iterative, user-centered design approach in collaboration with healthcare professionals in the UK, Bangladesh, Malawi

Software development process of Neotree - a data capture and decision support system to improve newborn healthcare in low-resource settings [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

D. G. Krige

Papers

A statistical approach to some basic mine valuation problems on the Witwatersrand

Lognormal-de Wijsian geostatistics for ore evaluation

Software development process of Neotree - a data capture and decision support system to improve newborn healthcare in low-resource settings

Software development process of Neotree - a data capture and decision support system to improve newborn healthcare in low-resource settings [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]