A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.

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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Linked: The New Science of Networks

This paper reviews the breadth of complexity of the design process, products, manufacturing, and business. Manufacturing is facing unprecedented challenges due to increased variety, market volatility and distributed global manufacturing. A fundamental residue of globalization and market uncertainty is the increasing complexity of manufacturing, technological and economic systems. The nature and sources of complexity in these areas are reviewed and complexity modeling and management approaches are discussed. Enterprises that can mitigate the negative aspects of complexity while managing its positives should thrive on the continuous change and increasing complexity. To reap these benefits in the future, manufacturing companies need to not only adopt flexible technical solutions but must also effectively innovate and manage complex socio-technical systems.

Complexity in engineering design and manufacturing

Platform Ecosystems is a hands-on guide that offers a complete roadmap for designing and orchestrating vibrant software platform ecosystems. Unlike software products that are managed, the evolution of ecosystems and their myriad participants must be orchestrated through a thoughtful alignment of architecture and governance. Whether you are an IT professional or a general manager, you will benefit from this book because platform strategy here lies at the intersection of software architecture and business strategy. It offers actionable tools to develop your own platform strategy, backed by original research, tangible metrics, rich data, and cases. You will learn how architectural choices create organically-evolvable, vibrant ecosystems. You will also learn to apply state-of-the-art research in software engineering, strategy, and evolutionary biology to leverage ecosystem dynamics unique to platforms. Read this book to learn how to: Evolve software products and services into vibrant platform ecosystemsOrchestrate platform architecture and governance to sustain competitive advantageGovern platform evolution using a powerful 3-dimensional framework If youre ready to transform platform strategy from newspaper gossip and business school theory to real-world competitive advantage, start right here!Understand how architecture and strategy are inseparably intertwined in platform ecosystems Architect future-proof platforms and apps and amplify these choices through governance Evolve platforms, apps, and entire ecosystems into vibrant successes and spot platform opportunities in almost any-not just IT-industry

Platform Ecosystems: Aligning Architecture, Governance, and Strategy

The use of mobile phones while driving—one of the most common driver distractions—has been a significant research interest during the most recent decade. While there has been a considerable amount research and excellent reviews on how mobile phone distractions influence various aspects of driving performance, the mechanisms by which the interactions with mobile phone affect driver performance is relatively unexamined. As such, the aim of this study is to examine the mechanisms involved with mobile phone distractions such as conversing, texting, and reading and the driving task, and subsequent outcomes. A novel human-machine framework is proposed to isolate the components and various interactions associated with mobile phone distracted driving. The proposed framework specifies the impacts of mobile phone distraction as an inter-related system of outcomes such as speed selection, lane deviations and crashes; human-car controls such as steering control and brake pedal use and human-environment interactions such as visual scanning and navigation. Eleven literature-review/meta-analyses papers and 62 recent research articles from 2005 to 2015 are critically reviewed and synthesised following a systematic classification scheme derived from the human-machine system framework. The analysis shows that while many studies have attempted to measure system outcomes or driving performance, research on how drivers interactively manage in-vehicle secondary tasks and adapt their driving behaviour while distracted is scant. A systematic approach may bolster efforts to examine comprehensively the performance of distracted drivers and their impact over the transportation system by considering all system components and interactions of drivers with mobile phones and vehicles. The proposed human-machine framework not only contributes to the literature on mobile phone distraction and safety, but also assists in identifying the research needs and promising strategies for mitigating mobile phone-related safety issues. Technology based countermeasures that can provide real-time feedback or alerts to drivers based on eye/head movements in conjunction with vehicle dynamics should be an important research direction.

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Understanding the impacts of mobile phone distraction on driving performance: A systematic review

Engineering, for much of the twentieth century, was mainly about artifacts and inventions. Now, it's increasingly about complex systems. As the airplane taxis to the gate, you access the Internet and check email with your PDA, linking the communication and transportation systems. At home, you recharge your plug-in hybrid vehicle, linking transportation to the electricity grid. Today's large-scale, highly complex sociotechnical systems converge, interact, and depend on each other in ways engineers of old could barely have imagined. As scale, scope, and complexity increase, engineers consider technical and social issues together in a highly integrated way as they design flexible, adaptable, robust systems that can be easily modified and reconfigured to satisfy changing requirements and new technological opportunities. Engineering Systems offers a comprehensive examination of such systems and the associated emerging field of study. Through scholarly discussion, concrete examples, and history, the authors consider the engineer's changing role, new ways to model and analyze these systems, the impacts on engineering education, and the future challenges of meeting human needs through the technologically enabled systems of today and tomorrow.

Engineering Systems: Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World

Building on broad discussions between many universities, this paper presents a research agenda based on a holistic, comprehensive view of the issues. It proposes that our infrastructure is a system of systems involving different technical manifestations and social organisations. The implication is that we need a fundamental reconsideration of how we look at system design, away from traditional disciplinary considerations and toward a multi-domain, multi-disciplinary effort. To this end, it proposes an agenda of: comparative analyses across infrastructures and political structures, that would identify commonalities and larger lessons; creation of integrated socio-technical models that usefully describe the interactions between the technical infrastructure and its social context; methodological efforts, aimed largely at capturing the network characteristics, both technical and social, of the infrastructure system of systems; explicit testing and evaluation of the research through programs of collaboration with practitioners and governmental organisations.

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Daniel Roos

Papers

Engineering Systems: Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World

Research agenda for an integrated approach to infrastructure planning, design and management

Seeding Change through International University Partnerships: The MIT-Portugal Program as a Driver of Internationalization, Networking, and Innovation

ESD Terms and Definitions (Version 12)

Architecting complex international science, technology, and innovation partnerships (CISTIPs): A study of four global MIT collaborations