Preface1Difference Equations12Lag Operators253Stationary ARMA Processes434Forecasting725Maximum Likelihood Estimation1176Spectral Analysis1527Asymptotic Distribution Theory1808Linear Regression Models2009Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations23310Covariance-Stationary Vector Processes25711Vector Autoregressions29112Bayesian Analysis35113The Kalman Filter37214Generalized Method of Moments40915Models of Nonstationary Time Series43516Processes with Deterministic Time Trends45417Univariate Processes with Unit Roots47518Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series54419Cointegration57120Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems63021Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity65722Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime677A Mathematical Review704B Statistical Tables751C Answers to Selected Exercises769D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text786Author Index789Subject Index792

https://sisis.rz.htw-berlin.de/inh2007/12357004.pdf

Time series analysis

This chapter suggests that delinquency conceals two distinct categories of individuals, each with a unique natural history and etiology: A small group engages in antisocial behavior of one sort or another at every life stage, whereas a larger group is antisocial only during adolescence. According to the theory of life-course-persistent antisocial behavior, children's neuropsychological problems interact cumulatively with their criminogenic environments across development, culminating m a pathological personality. According to the theory of adolescence-limited antisocial behavior, a contemporary maturity gap encourages teens to mimic antisocial behavior in ways that are normative and adjustive. There are marked individual differences in the stability of antisocial behavior. The chapter reviews the mysterious relationship between age and antisocial behavior. Some youths who refrain from antisocial behavior may, for some reason, not sense the maturity gap and therefore lack the hypothesized motivation for experimenting with crime.

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Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.

This paper presents a general strain theory of crime and delinquency that is capable of overcoming the criticisms of previous strain theories. In the first section, strain theory is distinguished from social control and differential association/social learning theory. In the second section, the three major types of strain are described: (1) strain as the actual or anticipated failure to achieve positively valued goals, (2) strain as the actual or anticipated removal of positively valued stimuli, and (3) strain as the actual or anticipated presentation of negatively valued stimuli. In the third section, guidelines for the measurement of strain are presented. And in the fourth section, the major adaptations to strain are described, and thcwe factors influencing the choice of delinquent versus nondelinquent adaptations are discussed. After dominating deviance research in the 196Os, strain theory came under heavy attack in the 1970s (Bernard, 1984; Cole, 1975), with several prominent researchers suggesting that the theory be abandoned (Hirschi, 1969; Kornhauser, 1978). Strain theory has survived those attacks, but its influence is much diminished (see Agnew, 1985a; Bernard, 1984; Farnworth and Leiber, 1989). In particular, variables derived from strain theory now play a very limited role in explanations of crime/delinquency. Several recent causal models of delinquency, in fact, either entirely exchde strain variables or assign them a small role (e.g., Elliott et al., 1985; Johnson, 1979; Massey and Krohn, 1986; Thornberry, 1987; Tonry et al., 1991). Causal models of crime/delinquency are dominated, instead, by variables derived from differential association/social learning theory and social control theory. This paper argues that strain theory has a central role to play in explanations of crime/delinquency, but that the theory has to be substantially revised to play this role. Most empirical studies of strain theory continue to rely on the strain models developed by Merton (1938), A. Cohen (1955), and Cloward and Ohlin (1960). In recent years, however, a wealth of research in several fields has questioned certain of the assumptions underlying those theories and pointed to new directions for the development of strain theory. Most notable in this area is the research on stress in medical sociology and psychology, on equity/justice in social psychology, and on aggression in psychology-particularly recent versions of frustration-aggression and social

Foundation for a General Strain Theory of Crime and Delinquency

The End of History and the Last Man

Can hardened criminals really reform? "Making Good" provides resounding proof that the answer is yes. This book provides a fascinating narrative analysis of the lives of repeat offenders who, by all statistical measures, should have continued on the criminal path but instead have created lives of productivity and purpose. This examination of the phenomenology of "making good" includes an encyclopedic review of the literature on personal reform as well as a practical guide to the use of narratives in offender counseling and rehabilitation.The author's research shows that criminals who desist from crime have constructed powerful narratives that aided them in making sense of their pasts, finding fulfillment in productive behaviors, and feeling in control of their future. Borrowing from the field of narrative psychology, Maruna argues that to truly understand offenders, we must understand the stories that they tell - and that in turn this story-making process has the capacity to transform lives. "Making Good" challenges some of the cherished assumptions of various therapy models for offenders and supports new paradigms for offender rehabilitation. This groundbreaking book is a must read for criminologists, forensic psychologists, lawyers, rehabilitation counselors, or anyone interested in the generative process of change.

Making Good: How Ex-Convicts Reform and Rebuild Their Lives

Linear Panel Analysis: Models of Quantitative Change

Linear Panel Analysis: Models of Quantitative Change.

"At various times, homosexuality has been considered the noblest of loves, a horrible sin, a psychological condition or grounds for torture and execution. David F. Greenberg's careful, encyclopedic and important new book argues that homosexuality is only deviant because society has constructed, or defined, it as deviant. The book takes us over vast terrains of example and detail in the history of homosexuality." Nicholas B. Dirks, "New York Times Book Review""

The Construction of Homosexuality

immaterial. In repeat victimization there is a tendency to repeat the same ype of c im (or nearly he same), but otherwise the transition matrix is homogeneous. Two papers discuss the benefit of using logistic regression as opposed to linear regression for predicting an individual's probability of success on parole from his characteristics. Carefully constructed models perform somewhat better than simple Burgess scales of predictor variables (counting yes, no or 0, 1, 2 on nine items), but surprisingly, the improvement is too modest to imply that one should use the theoretically correct methods. Two good papers on the deterrence effects of punishment seem dated after the publication of a comprehensive review by a National Academy of Sciences panel (Blumstein, Cohen and Nagin 1978). The family of JUSSIM models is described by Blumstein and Koch. JUSSIM I is a deterministic, steady-state, nonqueuing simulation of flows of individuals (arrestees, defendants, etc.) through stages of the criminal justice system. JUSSIM II expands on JUSSIM I by incorporating the feedback flow of recidivists through subsequent arrests. The paper focuses on JUSSIM III, a version that incorporates a crime generation process and a victim generation process. An unusually clear and useful description is given that shows how to construct the model's input data from available criminal justice system statistics. The final paper describes a fascinating redesign of the Kansas City Preventive Patrol Experiment, by Fienberg, Larntz, and Reiss. This controversial experiment, carried out in 1972-73 by a Police Foundation team headed by Kelling, is remarkable both for the wealth of detail and information it produced and for the vigorous criticisms it provoked. The experiment claimed to show that routine police preventive patrol has no effect on crime rates or citizens' sense of fear or opinion of police services. Although subsequent research has attempted to resolve the residual questions by means different from those suggested here by Fienberg et al., the paper is interesting because it shows how difficult it is to carry out a social experiment with a design adequate to identify reasonable-sized causal effects. The approach suggested here is a randomized controlled field trial with a balanced crossover design.

This chapter presents a theoretical analysis of the age distribution of criminal involvement. Since neither infants nor the elderly possess the prowess and agility required for some forms of crime, some association between age and criminal involvement can be expected on biological grounds alone. The chapter explains juvenile theft in terms of structural obstacles to legitimate sources of funds at a time when peer-oriented leisure activities require access to financial resources implicitly characterizes this form of delinquency as instrumentally rational; the theory assumes that money and goods are stolen because they are useful. Many observers have remarked on the disproportionate involvement of males in delinquent activity and the exaggerated masculine posturing that characterizes much male delinquency. Though sex differences in delinquency are not as pronounced in self-report studies as in arrest reports, and seem to be gradually narrowing, they nevertheless remain considerable, especially in the violence offense categories.

David F. Greenberg

Papers

Linear Panel Analysis: Models of Quantitative Change

Linear Panel Analysis: Models of Quantitative Change.

The Construction of Homosexuality

Linear Panel Analysis: Models of Quantitative Change

Delinquency and the Age Structure of Society