https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5754&context=engpapers

Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land-use planning

https://www.geo.uzh.ch/~chuggel/riskcourse/dai_landslide_risk_ass_enggeol02.pdf

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..

The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update

Landslides are generally associated with a trigger, such as an earthquake, a rapid snowmelt or a large storm. The landslide event can include a single landslide or many thousands. The frequency–area (or volume) distribution of a landslide event quantifies the number of landslides that occur at different sizes. We examine three well-documented landslide events, from Italy, Guatemala and the USA, each with a different triggering mechanism, and find that the landslide areas for all three are well approximated by the same three-parameter inverse-gamma distribution. For small landslide areas this distribution has an exponential ‘roll-over’ and for medium and large landslide areas decays as a power-law with exponent −2·40. One implication of this landslide distribution is that the mean area of landslides in the distribution is independent of the size of the event. We also introduce a landslide-event magnitude scale mL = log(NLT), with NLT the total number of landslides associated with a trigger. If a landslide-event inventory is incomplete (i.e. smaller landslides are not included), the partial inventory can be compared with our landslide probability distribution, and the corresponding landslide-event magnitude inferred. This technique can be applied to inventories of historical landslides, inferring the total number of landslides that occurred over geologic time, and how many of these have been erased by erosion, vegetation, and human activity. We have also considered three rockfall-dominated inventories, and find that the frequency–size distributions differ substantially from those associated with other landslide types. We suggest that our proposed frequency–size distribution for landslides (excluding rockfalls) will be useful in quantifying the severity of landslide events and the contribution of landslides to erosion. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Landslide inventories and their statistical properties

Foreword 1. Introduction 2. Runoff, erosion and delivery to the coastal ocean 3. Temporal variations 4. Human impacts Appendices. Global River Database: Appendix A: North and Central America Appendix B: South America Appendix C: Europe Appendix D: Africa Appendix E: Eurasia Appendix F: Asia Appendix G: Oceania References Index.

/pdf/river-discharge-to-the-coastal-ocean-a-global-synthesis-571z1g19ts.pdf

River Discharge to the Coastal Ocean: A Global Synthesis

Data from 40 historical world-wide earthquakes were studied to determine the characteristics, geologic environments, and hazards of landslides caused by seismic events. This sample of 40 events was supplemented with intensity data from several hundred United States earthquakes to study relations between landslide distribution and seismic parameters. Fourteen types of landslides were identified in the earthquakes studied. The most abundant of these were rock falls, disrupted soil slides, and rock slides. The greatest losses of human life were due to rock avalanches, rapid soil flows, and rock falls. Correlations between magnitude (M) and landslide distribution show that the maximum area likely to be affected by landslides in a seismic event increases from approximately 0 at M ≅ 4.0 to 500,000 km2 at M = 9.2.

Threshold magnitudes, minimum shaking intensities, and relations between M and distance from epicenter or fault rupture were used to define relative levels of shaking that trigger landslides in susceptible materials. Four types of internally disrupted landslides—rock falls, rock slides, soil falls, and disrupted soil slides—are initiated by the weakest shaking. More coherent, deeper-seated slides require stronger shaking; lateral spreads and flows require shaking that is stronger still; and the strongest shaking is probably required for very highly disrupted rock avalanches and soil avalanches.

Each type of earthquake-induced landslide occurs in a particular suite of geologic environments. These range from overhanging slopes of well-indurated rock to slopes of less than 1° underlain by soft, unconsolidated sediments. Materials most susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides include weakly cemented rocks, more-indurated rocks with prominent or pervasive discontinuities, residual and colluvial sand, volcanic soils containing sensitive clay, loess, cemented soils, granular alluvium, granular deltaic deposits, and granular man-made fill. Few earthquake-induced landslides reactivate older landslides; most are in materials that have not previously failed.

Landslides caused by earthquakes

Post-earthquake field investigations of landslide occurrence have provided a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated withearthquake-induced landslides. This paper traces thehistorical development of knowledge derived from these investigations. Before 1783, historical accounts of the occurrence of landslides in earthquakes are typically so incomplete and vague that conclusions based on these accounts are of limited usefulness. For example, the number of landslides triggered by a given event is almost always greatly underestimated. The first formal, scientific post-earthquake investigation that included systematic documentation of the landslides was undertaken in the Calabria region of Italy after the 1783 earthquake swarm. From then until the mid-twentieth century, the best information on earthquake-induced landslides came from a succession ofpost-earthquake investigations largely carried out by formal commissions that undertook extensive ground-based field studies. Beginning in the mid-twentieth century, when the use of aerial photography became widespread, comprehensive inventories of landslide occurrence have been made for several earthquakes in the United States, Peru, Guatemala, Italy, El Salvador, Japan, and Taiwan. Techniques have also been developed for performing ``retrospective'' analyses years or decades after an earthquake that attempt to reconstruct the distribution of landslides triggered by the event. The additional use of Geographic Information System (GIS) processing and digital mapping since about 1989 has greatly facilitated the level of analysis that can applied to mapped distributions of landslides. Beginning in 1984, syntheses of worldwide and national data on earthquake-induced landslides have defined their general characteristics and relations between their occurrence and various geologic and seismic parameters. However, the number of comprehensive post-earthquake studies of landslides is still relatively small, and one of the most pressing needs in this area of research is for the complete documentation of landslides triggered by many more earthquakes in a wider variety of environments.

Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes: A historical review

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/238/4829/921.full.pdf

David K. Keefer

Papers

Landslides caused by earthquakes

Investigating landslides caused by earthquakes: A historical review

Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall

The importance of earthquake-induced landslides to long-term slope erosion and slope-failure hazards in seismically active regions

Statistical analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution — the 1989 Loma Prieta, California event