https://www.geo.uzh.ch/~chuggel/riskcourse/dai_landslide_risk_ass_enggeol02.pdf

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..

The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update

We review rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides world wide and propose new empirical rainfall thresholds for the Central European Adriatic Danubian South-Eastern Space (CADSES) area, located in central and southern Europe. One-hundred-twenty-four empirical thresholds linking measurements of the event and the antecedent rainfall conditions to the occurrence of landslides are considered. We then describe a database of 853 rainfall events that resulted or did not result in landslides in the CADSES area. Rainfall and landslide information in the database was obtained from the literature; climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. We plot the intensity-duration values in logarithmic coordinates, and we establish that with increased rainfall duration the minimum intensity likely to trigger slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 20 minutes to ∼12 days. Based on this observation, we determine minimum intensity-duration (ID) and normalized-ID thresholds for the initiation of landslides in the CADSES area. Normalization is performed using two climatic indexes, the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and the rainy-day-normal (RDN). Threshold curves are inferred from the available data using a Bayesian statistical technique. Analysing the obtained thresholds we establish that lower average rainfall intensity is required to initiate landslides in an area with a mountain climate, than in an area characterized by a Mediterranean climate. We further suggest that for rainfall periods exceeding ∼12 days landslides are triggered by factors not considered by the ID model. The obtained thresholds can be used in operation landslide warning systems, where more accurate local or regional thresholds are not available.

Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe

A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/238/4829/921.full.pdf

Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall

A project supported by the U. S. Geological Survey was initiated in 1980 to determine the extent and economic significance of landsliding in the United States, and to prepare recommendations to management about the kind of work needed to investigate and mitigate the problem. At the time of this project, no comprehensive bibliography or database had previously been compiled for landslides. A bibliography was initiated in 1981 using commercially available library database services, combined with systematic library study, and reference collections from individual researchers in the United States. About 6,500 landslide references were obtained, including those from other U.S. government agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station. Development of the bibliography essentially ended with information published through 1983, although a few references published in 1984 and 1985 were included. Data on landslides contained in the published and unpublished reports cited in the bibliography have been used primarily for reconnaissance-level research, although they remain a useful tool for further studies. For example, many of the published and unpublished reports gathered for the bibliography were used by Brabb et al. (1999) to prepare a map to show where debris flows have been observed or mapped in the United States and help identify where they may occur in the future. The bibliography is still the largest compilation on landslides for all states, territories and possessions of the United States.

Earl E. Brabb

Papers

Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall

The Development and Application of a Historical Bibliography to Assess Landslide Hazard in the United States