Showing papers by "Dean Keith Simonton published in 1978"
TL;DR: In this article, a detailed inquiry reveals that the Poisson distribution can predict almost all the observed variation in the frequency distribution of multiples collected by Merton, and by Ogburn and Thomas.
Abstract: Social determinists have argued that the occurrence of independent discoveries and inventions demonstrates the inevitability of techno-scientific progress. Yet the frequency of such multiples may be adequately predicted by a probabilistic model, especially the Poisson model suggested by Price. A detailed inquiry reveals that the Poisson distribution can predict almost all the observed variation in the frequency distribution of multiples collected by Merton, and by Ogburn and Thomas. This study further indicates that: (a) the number of observed multiples may be greatly underestimated, particularly those involving few independent contributors, (b) discoveries and inventions are not sufficiently probable to avoid a large proportion of total failures, and hence techno-scientific advance is to a large measure indeterminate; (c) chance or 'luck' seems to play such a major part that the 'great genius' theory is no more tenable than the social deterministic theory.
40 citations
TL;DR: A review of recent research suggests that various external events such as formal education, role-model availability, zeitgeist, political fragmentation, war, civil disturbances, and political instability tend to have a critical impact on the development of creative potential in the young genius.
Abstract: Why do creative geniuses appear in some periods of history but not in others? A review of recent research suggests that various external events--including formal education, role-model availability, zeitgeist, political fragmentation, war, civil disturbances, and political instability-- tend to have a critical impact on the development of creative potential in the young genius. Once that potential is established, however, and the genius enters adulthood, creative productivity tends to proceed with little interference from outside events.
34 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the two most useful types of time series are (a) biographical time series consisting of consecutive observations of the lives of eminent writers and (b) transhistorical time series, which is used to study the progression of literary traditions.
7 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that Ghuman (1977) ignored studies which found significant, although only moderate, relationships between field dependence and personality variables as mentioned in this paper, and that his measures may have been insensitive in detecting relationships between the two variables.
Abstract: It is suggested that Ghuman (1977) ignored studies which found significant, although only moderate, relationships between field dependence and personality variables Secondly, it is suggested that his measures may have been insensitive in detecting relationships between field dependence and personality variables
4 citations