article i nfo No glacial lake census exists for the Third Pole region, which includes the Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram- Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, comprehensive information is lacking about the distribution of and changes in glacial lakes caused by current global warming conditions. In this study, the first glacial lake in- ventories for the Third Pole were conducted for ~1990, 2000, and 2010 using Landsat TM/ETM+ data. Glacial lake spatial distributions, corresponding areas and temporal changes were examined. The significant results are as follows. (1) There were 4602, 4981, and 5701 glacial lakes (N0.003 km 2 ) covering areas of 553.9 ± 90, 581.2 ± 97, and 682.4 ± 110 km 2 in ~1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively; these lakes are primarily located in the Brahmaputra (39%),Indus (28%), and AmuDarya (10%) basins. (2) Small lakes (b0.2 km 2 ) are more sensitive to climate changes. (3) Lakes closer to glaciers and at higher altitudes, particularly thoseconnected to glacier ter- mini, have undergone larger area changes. (4) Glacier-fed lakes are dominant in both quantity and area (N70%) and exhibit faster expansion trends overall compared to non-glacier-fed lakes. We conclude that glacier meltwa- ter may play a dominant role in the areal expansion of most glacial lakes in the Third Pole. In addition, the pat- terns of the glacier-fed lakes correspond well with warming temperature trends and negative glacier mass balance patterns. This paper presents an important database of glacial lakes and provides a basis for long-term monitoring and evaluation of outburst flood disasters primarily caused by glacial lakes in the Third Pole.

An inventory of glacial lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global warming

Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya, East Africa

Having an extreme topography and heterogeneous climate, the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is more likely to be affected by climate change and it is a crucial area for climatological studies. Based on the monthly minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation from nine meteorological stations, the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and precipitation were analyzed on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. Results show a widespread significant increasing trend of 0.14 °C/decade for Tmax, but a significant decreasing trend of −0.08 °C/decade for Tmin annually, during 1955–2016 for the UIB. Seasonally, warming in Tmax is stronger in winter and spring, while the cooling in Tmin is greater in summer and autumn. Results of seasonal Tmax indicate increasing trends in winter, spring and autumn at rates of 0.38, 0.35 and 0.05 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing in summer with −0.14 °C/decade. Moreover, seasonal Tmin results indicate increasing trends in winter and spring at rates of 0.09 and 0.08 °C/decade, respectively, while decreasing significantly in summer and autumn at rates of −0.21 and −0.22 °C/decade respectively for the whole the UIB. Precipitation exhibits an increasing trend of 2.74 mm/decade annually, while, increasing in winter, summer and autumn at rates of 1.18, 2.06 and 0.62 mm/decade respectively. The warming in Tmax and an increase in precipitation have been more distinct since the mid-1990s, while the cooling in Tmin is observed in the UIB since the mid-1980s. Warming in the middle and higher altitude (1500–2800 m and >2800 m) are much stronger, and the increase is more obvious in regions with elevation >2800 m. The wavelet analysis illustrated sporadic inter-annual covariance of seasonal Tmax, Tmin and precipitation with ENSO, NAO, IOD and PDO in the UIB. The periodicities were usually constant over short timescales and discontinuous over longer timescales. This study offers a better understanding of the local climate characteristics and provides a scientific basis for government policymakers.

Observed Trends and Variability of Temperature and Precipitation and Their Global Teleconnections in the Upper Indus Basin, Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific and an important modulator of the spatio-temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) Here, we explore the impact of ENSO during onset (June), peak (July–August) and withdrawal (September) phases of ISMR for the period 1951–2015, by studying the changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from early decades (1951–1980) to recent decades (1986–2015) We observe noticeable changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from the early to recent decades during all the three phases During El Nino events, rainfall over most of the Indian regions is significantly increased in recent decades during onset phase, but a significant decrease in rainfall is observed during peak and withdrawal phases On the other hand, the rainfall during La Nina events is significantly decreased over the monsoon core zone of India during all the three phases A significant increase (decrease) in sea surface temperature (SST) is observed over the central equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean during El Nino (La Nina) events in recent decades These changes differ from one phase to another and related to the observed rainfall patterns over the Indian region Apart from these, the changes in the anomalies of low level circulation and Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific domain are also linked to the changes in rainfall during the ENSO events, with most significant relationship during the onset phase

Dilshad Bano

Papers

Mapping and monitoring of glacier lake outburst floods using geospatial modelling approach for Darkut valley, Pakistan