Severe droughts have caused widespread tree mortality across many forest biomes with profound effects on the function of ecosystems and carbon balance. Climate change is expected to intensify regional-scale droughts, focusing attention on the physiological basis of drought-induced tree mortality. Recent work has shown that catastrophic failure of the plant hydraulic system is a principal mechanism involved in extensive crown death and tree mortality during drought, but the multi-dimensional response of trees to desiccation is complex. Here we focus on the current understanding of tree hydraulic performance under drought, the identification of physiological thresholds that precipitate mortality and the mechanisms of recovery after drought. Building on this, we discuss the potential application of hydraulic thresholds to process-based models that predict mortality.

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Triggers of tree mortality under drought

Lead Authors: Marco Bindi (Italy), Sally Brown (UK), Ines Camilloni (Argentina), Arona Diedhiou (Ivory Coast/Senegal), Riyanti Djalante (Japan/Indonesia), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Francois Engelbrecht (South Africa), Joel Guiot (France), Yasuaki Hijioka (Japan), Shagun Mehrotra (USA/India), Antony Payne (UK), Sonia I. Seneviratne (Switzerland), Adelle Thomas (Bahamas), Rachel Warren (UK), Guangsheng Zhou (China)

Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

Global mangrove loss has been attributed primarily to human activity. Anthropogenic loss hotspots across Southeast Asia and around the world have characterized the ecosystem as highly threatened, though natural processes such as erosion can also play a significant role in forest vulnerability. However, the extent of human and natural threats has not been fully quantified at the global scale. Here, using a Random Forest-based analysis of over one million Landsat images, we present the first 30 m resolution global maps of the drivers of mangrove loss from 2000 to 2016, capturing both human-driven and natural stressors. We estimate that 62% of global losses between 2000 and 2016 resulted from land-use change, primarily through conversion to aquaculture and agriculture. Up to 80% of these human-driven losses occurred within six Southeast Asian nations, reflecting the regional emphasis on enhancing aquaculture for export to support economic development. Both anthropogenic and natural losses declined between 2000 and 2016, though slower declines in natural loss caused an increase in their relative contribution to total global loss area. We attribute the decline in anthropogenic losses to the regionally dependent combination of increased emphasis on conservation efforts and a lack of remaining mangroves viable for conversion. While efforts to restore and protect mangroves appear to be effective over decadal timescales, the emergence of natural drivers of loss presents an immediate challenge for coastal adaptation. We anticipate that our results will inform decision-making within conservation and restoration initiatives by providing a locally relevant understanding of the causes of mangrove loss.

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Global declines in human-driven mangrove loss

The interaction of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events since the turn of the century has triggered complex and, in some cases, catastrophic ecological responses around the world. We illustrate this using Australian examples within a press–pulse framework. Despite the Australian biota being adapted to high natural climate variability, recent combinations of climatic presses and pulses have led to population collapses, loss of relictual communities and shifts into novel ecosystems. These changes have been sudden and unpredictable, and may represent permanent transitions to new ecosystem states without adaptive management interventions. The press–pulse framework helps illuminate biological responses to climate change, grounds debate about suitable management interventions and highlights possible consequences of (non-) intervention.

Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.

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Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes

This study records and documents the most severe and notable instance ever reported of sudden and widespread dieback of mangrove vegetation. Between late 2015 and early 2016, extensive areas of mangrove tidal wetland vegetation died back along 1000km of the shoreline of Australia’s remote Gulf of Carpentaria. The cause is not fully explained, but the timing was coincident with an extreme weather event; notably one of high temperatures and low precipitation lacking storm winds. The dieback was severe and widespread, affecting more than 7400ha or 6% of mangrove vegetation in the affected area from Roper River estuary in the Northern Territory, east to Karumba in Queensland. At the time, there was an unusually lengthy period of severe drought conditions, unprecedented high temperatures and a temporary drop in sea level. Although consequential moisture stress appears to have contributed to the cause, this occurrence was further coincidental with heat-stressed coral bleaching. This article describes the effect and diagnostic features of this severe dieback event in the Gulf, and considers potential causal factors.

Duncan J. E. Hill

Papers

Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria: a severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event