Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

/pdf/the-global-distribution-and-burden-of-dengue-4d1crnic4u.pdf

The global distribution and burden of dengue

Dengue fever, a very old disease, has reemerged in the past 20 years with an expanded geographic distribution of both the viruses and the mosquito vectors, increased epidemic activity, the development of hyperendemicity (the cocirculation of multiple serotypes), and the emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in new geographic regions. In 1998 this mosquito-borne disease is the most important tropical infectious disease after malaria, with an estimated 100 million cases of dengue fever, 500,000 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 25,000 deaths annually. The reasons for this resurgence and emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the waning years of the 20th century are complex and not fully understood, but demographic, societal, and public health infrastructure changes in the past 30 years have contributed greatly. This paper reviews the changing epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever by geographic region, the natural history and transmission cycles, clinical diagnosis of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, serologic and virologic laboratory diagnoses, pathogenesis, surveillance, prevention, and control. A major challenge for public health officials in all tropical areas of the world is to devleop and implement sustainable prevention and control programs that will reverse the trend of emergent dengue hemorrhagic fever.

/pdf/dengue-and-dengue-hemorrhagic-fever-1p5i046g8l.pdf

Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Context Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cause substantial morbidity and mortality. Statistical methods used to estimate deaths in the United States attributable to influenza have not accounted for RSV circulation. Objective To develop a statistical model using national mortality and viral surveillance data to estimate annual influenza- and RSV-associated deaths in the United States, by age group, virus, and influenza type and subtype. Design, Setting, and Population Age-specific Poisson regression models using national viral surveillance data for the 1976-1977 through 1998-1999 seasons were used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. Influenza- and RSV-associated deaths were simultaneously estimated for the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons. Main Outcome Measures Attributable deaths for 3 categories: underlying pneumonia and influenza, underlying respiratory and circulatory, and all causes. Results Annual estimates of influenza-associated deaths increased significantly between the 1976-1977 and 1998-1999 seasons for all 3 death categories (P Conclusions Mortality associated with both influenza and RSV circulation disproportionately affects elderly persons. Influenza deaths have increased substantially in the last 2 decades, in part because of aging of the population, underscoring the need for better prevention measures, including more effective vaccines and vaccination programs for elderly persons.

/pdf/mortality-associated-with-influenza-and-respiratory-3ilr9rktwq.pdf

Mortality Associated With Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States

BACKGROUND In 2007, physicians on Yap Island reported an outbreak of illness characterized by rash, conjunctivitis, and arthralgia. Although serum from some patients had IgM antibody against dengue virus, the illness seemed clinically distinct from previously detected dengue. Subsequent testing with the use of consensus primers detected Zika virus RNA in the serum of the patients but no dengue virus or other arboviral RNA. No previous outbreaks and only 14 cases of Zika virus disease have been previously documented. METHODS We obtained serum samples from patients and interviewed patients for information on clinical signs and symptoms. Zika virus disease was confirmed by a finding of Zika virus RNA or a specific neutralizing antibody response to Zika virus in the serum. Patients with IgM antibody against Zika virus who had a potentially cross-reactive neutralizing-antibody response were classified as having probable Zika virus disease. We conducted a household survey to estimate the proportion of Yap residents with IgM antibody against Zika virus and to identify possible mosquito vectors of Zika virus. RESULTS We identified 49 confirmed and 59 probable cases of Zika virus disease. The patients resided in 9 of the 10 municipalities on Yap. Rash, fever, arthralgia, and conjunctivitis were common symptoms. No hospitalizations, hemorrhagic manifestations, or deaths due to Zika virus were reported. We estimated that 73% (95% confidence interval, 68 to 77) of Yap residents 3 years of age or older had been recently infected with Zika virus. Aedes hensilli was the predominant mosquito species identified. CONCLUSIONS This outbreak of Zika virus illness in Micronesia represents transmission of Zika virus outside Africa and Asia. Although most patients had mild illness, clinicians and public health officials should be aware of the risk of further expansion of Zika virus transmission.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa0805715

Zika virus outbreak on Yap Island, Federated States of Micronesia.

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Hundreds of thousands of dengue cases are reported worldwide each year. Given the difficulty in obtaining full reporting, the actual number of human infections is probably much higher than the number reported. Dengue is usually a nonspecific febrile illness that resolves with supportive therapy but the clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infection through severe hemorrhage and sudden fatal shock. The pathophysiology of the severe forms of dengue may be related to sequential infection with different serotypes, variations in virus virulence, interaction of the virus with environmental and host factors or a combination of these factors. Control of dengue at the present time is dependent on control of the principal vector mosquito, A. aegypti. Efforts to achieve such control are now focusing on community education and action towards eliminating this mosquito's breeding sites near human dwellings. Vaccine development continues, but at present the only way to avoid dengue in an area where it is endemic or epidemic is to use repellents and mosquito barriers. The movement of people to and from tropical areas makes dengue an important differential diagnosis in any patient with an acute illness and history of recent travel to tropical areas. Because of continued infestation of the southeastern United States with A. aegypti, indigenous transmission in the continental United States remains a public health concern.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus related to yellow fever, dengue, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis viruses. In 2007 ZIKV caused an outbreak of relatively mild disease characterized by rash, arthralgia, and conjunctivitis on Yap Island in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. This was the first time that ZIKV was detected outside of Africa and Asia. The history, transmission dynamics, virology, and clinical manifestations of ZIKV disease are discussed, along with the possibility for diagnostic confusion between ZIKV illness and dengue.The emergence of ZIKV outside of its previously known geographic range should prompt awareness of the potential for ZIKV to spread to other Pacific islands and the Americas.

Zika Virus Outside Africa

From 1937 until 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) garnered scant medical attention as the cause of febrile illness and sporadic encephalitis in parts of Africa, Asia, and Europe. After the surprising detection of WNV in New York City in 1999, the virus has spread dramatically westward across the United States, southward into Central America and the Caribbean, and northward into Canada, resulting in the largest epidemics of neuroinvasive WNV disease ever reported. From 1999 to 2004, >7,000 neuroinvasive WNV disease cases were reported in the United States. In 2002, WNV transmission through blood transfusion and organ transplantation was described for the first time, intrauterine transmission was first documented, and possible transmission through breastfeeding was reported. This review highlights new information regarding the epidemiology and dynamics of WNV transmission, providing a new platform for further research into preventing and controlling WNV disease.

http://www.antimicrobe.org/cdc-05-0289a.pdf

Edward B. Hayes

Papers

Zika virus outbreak on Yap Island, Federated States of Micronesia.

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Zika Virus Outside Africa

Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus Disease

Epidemic West Nile encephalitis, New York, 1999: results of a household-based seroepidemiological survey