Using a sample free of survivor bias, I demonstrate that common factors in stock returns and investment expenses almost completely explain persistence in equity mutual funds' mean and risk-adjusted returns Hendricks, Patel and Zeckhauser's (1993) "hot hands" result is mostly driven by the one-year momentum effect of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), but individual funds do not earn higher returns from following the momentum strategy in stocks The only significant persistence not explained is concentrated in strong underperformance by the worst-return mutual funds The results do not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers PERSISTENCE IN MUTUAL FUND performance does not reflect superior stock-picking skill Rather, common factors in stock returns and persistent differences in mutual fund expenses and transaction costs explain almost all of the predictability in mutual fund returns Only the strong, persistent underperformance by the worst-return mutual funds remains anomalous Mutual fund persistence is well documented in the finance literature, but not well explained Hendricks, Patel, and Zeckhauser (1993), Goetzmann and Ibbotson (1994), Brown and Goetzmann (1995), and Wermers (1996) find evidence of persistence in mutual fund performance over short-term horizons of one to three years, and attribute the persistence to "hot hands" or common investment strategies Grinblatt and Titman (1992), Elton, Gruber, Das, and Hlavka (1993), and Elton, Gruber, Das, and Blake (1996) document mutual fund return predictability over longer horizons of five to ten years, and attribute this to manager differential information or stock-picking talent Contrary evidence comes from Jensen (1969), who does not find that good subsequent performance follows good past performance Carhart (1992) shows that persistence in expense ratios drives much of the long-term persistence in mutual fund performance My analysis indicates that Jegadeesh and Titman's (1993) one-year momentum in stock returns accounts for Hendricks, Patel, and Zeckhauser's (1993) hot hands effect in mutual fund performance However, funds that earn higher

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On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

This paper analyzes how mutual fund performance relates to past performance. These tests are based on a multiple portfolio benchmark that was formed on the basis of securities characteristics. We find evidence that differences in performance between funds persist over time and that this persistence is consistent with the ability of fund managers to earn abnormal returns.

The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance

SEQUELS ARE RARELY AS good as the originals, so I approach this review of the market efficiency literature with trepidation. The task is thornier than it was 20 years ago, when work on efficiency was rather new. The literature is now so large that a full review is impossible, and is not attempted here. Instead, I discuss the work that I find most interesting, and I offer my views on what we have learned from the research on market efficiency.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x

Efficient Capital Markets: II

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread

T HE determination of marginal stockholder tax brackets is an important and unresolved issue in the economic literature. Marginal stockholder tax brackets play an important role in stock valuation models [ 1, 6, 14], in normative investment and dividend policy models [11, 16], and in descriptive capital allocation models [ 7, 8, 10, 12 ]. The purpose of this paper is to present and test a method of determining marginal stockholder tax brackets and to explore the implications of our findings for corporate investment policy, corporate dividend policy, and the assumption of market rationality. In the first section of this paper we expand upon the reasons for studying marginal stockholder tax brackets. In the next section we show how marginal stockholder tax brackets can be inferred from the ex-dividend behavior of common stock. In the third and fourth sections we compute marginal stockholder tax brackets and discuss their implications for capital theory.

Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect

This paper uses intraday data from the interdealer government bond market to investigate the effects of scheduled macroeconomic announcements on prices, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads. We find that 17 public news releases, as measured by the surprise in the announced quantity, have a significant impact on the price of at least one of the following instruments: a three-month bill, a two-year note, a 10-year note, and a 30-year bond. These effects vary significantly according to maturity. Public news can explain a substantial fraction of price volatility in the aftermath of announcements, and the adjustment to news generally occurs within one minute after the announcement. We document significant and persistent increases in volatility and trading volume after the announcements. Bidask spreads, on the other hand, widen at the time of the announcements, but then revert to normal values after five to 15 minutes. The effects that we document have relevant implications for yield curve modeling and for the microstructure of bond markets.

Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

We investigate the informational efficiency of mutual fund performance for the period 1965-84. Results are shown to be sensitive to the measurement of performance chosen. We find that returns on S&P stocks, returns on non-S&P stocks, and returns on bonds are significant factors in performance assessment. Once we correct for the impact of non-S&P assets on mutual fund returns, we find that mutual funds do not earn returns that justify their information acquisition costs. This is consistent with results for prior periods. Coauthors are Martin J. Gruber, Sanjiv Das, and MAtthew Hlavka. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios

There is overwhelming evidence that, post expenses, mutual fund managers on average underperform a combination of passive portfolios of similar risk. The recent increase in the number and types of index funds that are available to individual investors makes this a matter of practical as well as theoretical significance. Numerous index funds, which track the S&P 500 index or various small-stock, bond, value, growth, or international indexes, are now widely available to individual investors. These same choices have been available to institutional investors for some time. Given that there are sufficient index funds to span most investors risk choices, that the index funds are available at low cost, and that the low cost of index funds means that a combination of index funds is likely to outperform an active fund of similar risk, the question is, why select an actively managed fund?

The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance

Finance theory indicates that investor decisions are based on expected, rather than actual, returns. Nevertheless, nearly all research into asset-pricing models has been based on actual returns. The author points out that actual returns are not a reasonable proxy for expected returns. He develops an approach for estimating expected returns and applies it to the analysis of returns on Treasury securities. He also addresses implications for analyzing stock returns.

Edwin J. Elton

Papers

Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect

Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

Efficiency with Costly Information: A Reinterpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios

The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance

Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests