Showing papers by "Elena G. Irwin published in 2003"
TL;DR: In this article, a probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios, concluding that smart growth objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.
Abstract: As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.
116 citations
TL;DR: For example, this paper found that environmental outcomes (such as protecting groundwater and wildlife habitat and preserving natural lands) were the primary reasons for farmland preservation programs, while farmland preservation is most valued for precluding development.
Abstract: Americans have expressed increasing levels of support for protecting farmland in recent years. One billion dollars was allocated for funding agricultural easement programs in the 2000 elections at state and local levels. More recently, the US Congress authorized another $1 billion in new funding for the federal Farmland and Rangeland Protection Program under the 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act. For many of the 99% of Americans not living on farms, the notion of “preserving farmland” implies a variety of benefits, some of which are unrelated to farmland per se. Reasons for farmland preservation range from broad benefits (such as preserving open space, maintaining a rural lifestyle, and preventing urban sprawl) to more specific agricultural benefits (such as long-term food security and supporting local farmers). Some evidence suggests that the public’s largest perceived benefits of farmland are not tied to farming at all. For example, a study of Rhode Island residents found that environmental outcomes (such as protecting groundwater and wildlife habitat and preserving natural lands) were the primary reasons for farmland preservation programs (Kline & Wilchens, 1996). Other research suggests that farmland is most valued for precluding development. Sorting out the specific attributes of farmland that the public most values matters greatly for land use and farmland preservation policies.
26 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments, and how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change.
Abstract: The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed.
11 citations
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TL;DR: This paper developed a typology of rural-urban places and used statistical methods to examine township patterns of exurban change in Ohio, where exurban areas are among the fastest growing regions in the U.S.
Abstract: Located between suburban and rural regions, exurban areas are among the fastest growing regions in the U.S. To better understand exurban changes and their policy implications, we develop a typology of rural-urban places and use statistical methods to examine township patterns of exurban change in Ohio.
2 citations