In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

are price decreases. (3) The frequency of price increases covaries strongly with inflation, whereas the frequency of price decreases and the size of price increases and price decreases do not. (4) The frequency of price change is highly seasonal: it is highest in the first quarter and then declines. (5) We find no evidence of upwardsloping hazard functions of price changes for individual products. We show that the first, second, and third facts are consistent with a benchmark menu-cost model, whereas the fourth and fifth facts are not.

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Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models

This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy. This paper proposes two important extensions of previous research (see Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner, 2004). First, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Also using average pair-wise cross-section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international comovements of business cycles. Second, in addition to generalised impulse response functions, we propose an identification scheme to derive structural impulse responses. We focus on identification of shocks to the US economy, particularly the monetary policy shocks, and consider the time profiles of their effects on the euro area. To this end we include the US model as the first country model and consider alternative orderings of the US variables. Further to the US monetary policy shock, we also consider oil price, US equity and US real output shocks.

Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis

We test the performance of a host of real and financial variables as early warning indicators for costly aggregate asset price boom/bust cycles, using data for 18 OECD countries. A 'real time' signaling approach is used to predict asset price booms that have serious real economy consequences. We use a loss function to rank the indicators given policy makers' relative preferences with respect to type I and II errors and suggest a new measure for assessing the usefulness of indicators. Global measures of liquidity, in particular a global private credit gap, are the best performing indicators and display forecasting records, which are informative for policy makers interested in timely reactions to growing financial imbalances.

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'Real Time' Early Warning Indicators for Costly Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles: A Role for Global Liquidity

This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks, covering more than 11,000 firms. The results, robust across countries, show that firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where prices are mostly set following markup rules and where price discrimination is common. Around one-third of firms follow mainly time-dependent pricing rules while two-thirds allow for elements of state-dependence. The majority of firms take into account past and expected economic developments in their pricing decisions. Price stickiness is mainly driven by customer relationships - explicit and implicit contracts - and coordination failure. Firms adjust prices asymmetrically in response to shocks: while cost shocks have a greater impact when prices have to be raised than when they have to be reduced, reductions in demand are more likely to induce a price change than increases in demand.

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The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence

This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open economy models as special cases. The model is then estimated for 9 euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. We find that structural price rigidity is systematically lower in the open economy specification of the model than in the closed economy specification indicating that when firms face more variable input costs they tend to adjust their prices more frequently. However, when the model is estimated in its general specification including also domestic intermediate inputs, price rigidity increases again compared to the open economy specification without domestic intermediate inputs.

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

Based on individual price records collected for the computation of the Austrian CPI, average frequencies of price changes and durations of price spells are estimated to characterize price setting in Austria. Depending on the estimation method, prices are unchanged for 10 to 14 months on average. We find strong heterogeneity across sectors and products. Price increases occur only slightly more often than price decreases. The typical size of a price increase (decrease) is 11 (15) percent. The aggregate hazard function of prices is decreasing with time. Besides heterogeneity across products and price setters, this is due to oversampling of products with a high frequency of price changes. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in estimating the probability of a price change with a fixed-effects logit model, we find a positive effect of the duration of a price spell. During the Euro cash changeover the probability of price changes was higher.

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How Frequently do Consumer Prices Change in Austria? Evidence from Micro CPI Data

In this paper we analyze empirically how labor market institutions influence business cycle volatility in a sample of 20 OECD countries. Our results suggest that countries characterized by high union density tend to experience more volatile movements in output, whereas the degree of coordination of the wage bargaining system and the strictness of employment protection legislation appear to be only of limited importance. We also find some evidence suggesting that highly coordinated wage bargaining systems have a dampening impact on inflation volatility.

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Labor market institutions and macroeconomic volatility in a panel of oecd countries

This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open economy models. The model is estimated for nine euro area countries and the euro area aggregate. We find that the general specification of our model improves the fit of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve considerably compared to the closed economy specification. The estimates of the structural parameters of the model suggest strong heterogeneity in the degree of price rigidity across euro area counties. Furthermore, we find the degree of price rigidity to be systematically lower in the open economy specification than in the closed economy specification and also lower than in the general specification of our model.

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In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Gali and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

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Fabio Rumler

Papers

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

How Frequently do Consumer Prices Change in Austria? Evidence from Micro CPI Data

Labor market institutions and macroeconomic volatility in a panel of oecd countries

Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries

The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics