The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.

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Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we introduce an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a DSGE model with financial frictions. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital from retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-assets ratios and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the existence of a banking sector partially attenuates the effects of demand shocks, while it helps propagate supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital has a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment.

Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area

This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle ∞uctuations. To this end, an imperfectly competitive banking sector is introduced into a DGSE model with flnancial frictions. Banks issue loans to both households and flrms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital out of retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-asset ratio and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which afiects bank proflts and thus capital, and the supply and the cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. We show that shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest fraction of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a smaller role. We also flnd that an unexpected reduction in bank capital can have a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment. JEL: E30; E32; E43; E51; E52;

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Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area

An important element of the macro-prudential analysis is the study of the link between business cycle fluctuations and banking sector profitability and how this link is affected by institutional and structural characteristics. This work estimates a set of equations for net interest income, non-interest income, operating costs, provisions, and profit before taxes, for banks in the main industrialized countries and evaluates the effects on banking profitability of shocks to both macroeconomic and financial factors. Distinguishing mainly the euro area from Anglo-Saxon countries, the analysis also identifies differences in the resilience of the respective banking systems and relates them to the characteristics of their financial structure.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID935026_code606534.pdf?abstractid=935026&rulid=5149012&mirid=4

Bank Profitability and the Business Cycle

In this paper we present a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors. We find significant cyclical asymmetry in the behaviour of fiscal variables in a sample of fourteen EU countries over 1970–2007, with budgetary balances (both overall and primary) deteriorating in contractions without correspondingly improving in expansions. Analysis of budget components reveals that cyclical asymmetry comes from expenditure. We find no evidence that fiscal rules introduced in 1992 with the Treaty of Maastricht affected the cyclical behaviour of fiscal variables. Numerical simulations show that cyclical asymmetry inflated average deficit levels, contributing significantly to debt accumulation.

Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables in the EU

The fiscal rules set in the Treaty of Maastricht and in the Stability and Growth Pact have sometimes been criticised as an excessively binding constraint for appropriate counter-cyclical action. The risk that the rules may permanently reduce the public sector’s contribution to capital accumulation has also been pointed out. In this framework, the adoption of a ‘golden rule’ has been suggested. Starting from the recent debate, this paper tackles two questions: (a) the implications of the Pact for public investment and (b) the pros and cons of introducing a golden rule in EMU’s fiscal framework, given the objectives of low public debts and adequate margins for a stabilising budgetary policy. The analysis suggests that the rules set in the Treaty and in the Pact may negatively influence public investment spending. However, the golden rule, although intuitively appealing, does not seem to be an appropriate solution to the problem. The slowdown in growth in 1998 and its possible implications for the level of unemployment raised worries and doubts concerning the fiscal rules set in the Treaty of Maastricht and in the Stability and Growth Pact. It has been argued that these rules may represent an excessively binding constraint for appropriate counter-cyclical action and that the attempt to reach rapidly a budget position ‘close to balance or in surplus’ may worsen the slowdown. The risk that the rules

/pdf/public-investment-the-stability-pact-and-the-golden-rule-3o3g1b1bk6.pdf

Public Investment, the Stability Pact and the ‘Golden Rule’

In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government's primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses.

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Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area

Balassone and Franco review the literature on fiscal sustainability in order to examine the comparative advantages and disadvantages of different methodologies and indicators and to highlight the areas in which more research effort is still needed. They contrast the intuitive character of the concept of sustainability with the analytical and operational difficulties met with when trying to arrive at a rigorous definition. On the one hand, the literature has not produced a unique definition of sustainability; furthermore, the problem has only been dealt with in a partial equilibrium framework. On the other hand, the statistical definition of the main variables to be used for the assessment of sustainability is not uncontroversial; moreover, as the assessment is based on long-term projections, it is necessarily subject to wide margins of error.Balassone and Franco also point out that, theoretical issues notwithstanding, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact set fiscal rules which, if complied with, ensure sustainability according to any definition adopted. Techniques developed for the analysis of sustainability can therefore be used for the assessment of prospective compliance with such rules, a crucial task for both policy evaluation and timely corrective intervention. In re-examining the pros and cons of available indicators, their paper categorises the studies on the assessment of sustainability into two main strands: those testing for the sustainability of past policies and those assessing prospective fiscal stances. Among the latter a distinction is drawn between works based on standard national accounting concepts and generational accounting exercises. The paper concludes by stressing the need for further efforts to guide budgetary policy more effectively.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2109377_code606534.pdf?abstractid=2109377&mirid=5

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU

The Stability and Growth Pact sets a medium-term target for fiscal policy of a budgetary position "close to balance of in surplus" This addition to the deficit rule defined by the Maastricht Treaty has been interpreted as an attempt to reconcile the objective of sound public finances with the availability of adequate margins for stabilisation

Fabrizio Balassone

Papers

Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables in the EU

Public Investment, the Stability Pact and the ‘Golden Rule’

Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Review of Methods with a View to EMU

EMU fiscal rules: Is there a gap?