Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

https://digital.library.adelaide.edu.au/dspace/bitstream/2440/129488/3/hdl_129488.pdf

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/238777/Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney.pdf

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Diabetes mellitus is a leading cause of mortality and reduced life expectancy. We aim to estimate the burden of diabetes by type, year, regions, and socioeconomic status in 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years, which provide information to achieve the goal of World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in 2025. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Overall, the global burden of diabetes had increased significantly since 1990. Both the trend and magnitude of diabetes related diseases burden varied substantially across regions and countries. In 2017, global incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with diabetes were 22.9 million, 476.0 million, 1.37 million, and 67.9 million, with a projection to 26.6 million, 570.9 million, 1.59 million, and 79.3 million in 2025, respectively. The trend of global type 2 diabetes burden was similar to that of total diabetes (including type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes), while global age-standardized rate of mortality and DALYs for type 1 diabetes declined. Globally, metabolic risks (high BMI) and behavioral factors (inappropriate diet, smoking, and low physical activity) contributed the most attributable death and DALYs of diabetes. These estimations could be useful in policy-making, priority setting, and resource allocation in diabetes prevention and treatment.

/pdf/global-regional-and-national-burden-and-trend-of-diabetes-in-3yii3x27va.pdf

Global, regional, and national burden and trend of diabetes in 195 countries and territories: an analysis from 1990 to 2025

Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis.We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia.Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. 

/pdf/estimation-of-the-global-prevalence-of-dementia-in-2019-and-bd8v3hyj.pdf

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/249630/PMC6227505.pdf

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories

Falko Goettsch

Papers

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories