Background: Dengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status. Methods/Principal Findings: A baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence. Conclusion: The map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

/pdf/refining-the-global-spatial-limits-of-dengue-virus-f8emry0wk5.pdf

Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

INTRODUCTION: An accurate early warning system to predict impending epidemics enhances the effectiveness of preventive measures against dengue fever. The aim of this study was to develop and valida ...

/pdf/forecast-of-dengue-incidence-using-temperature-and-rainfall-c07hlsuswp.pdf

Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall.

The impacts of network topology on disease spread

Background
Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control.

/pdf/quantifying-the-spatial-dimension-of-dengue-virus-epidemic-5qfykqhr4f.pdf

Quantifying the Spatial Dimension of Dengue Virus Epidemic Spread within a Tropical Urban Environment

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne illness that places significant burden on tropical developing countries with unplanned urbanization. A surveillance system using Google Earth and GIS mapping technologies was developed in Nicaragua as a management tool. Satellite imagery of the town of Bluefields, Nicaragua captured from Google Earth was used to create a base-map in ArcGIS 9. Indices of larval infestation, locations of tire dumps, cemeteries, large areas of standing water, etc. that may act as larval development sites, and locations of the homes of dengue cases collected during routine epidemiologic surveying were overlaid onto this map. Visual imagery of the location of dengue cases, larval infestation, and locations of potential larval development sites were used by dengue control specialists to prioritize specific neighborhoods for targeted control interventions. This dengue surveillance program allows public health workers in resource-limited settings to accurately identify areas with high indices of mosquito infestation and interpret the spatial relationship of these areas with potential larval development sites such as garbage piles and large pools of standing water. As a result, it is possible to prioritize control strategies and to target interventions to highest risk areas in order to eliminate the likely origin of the mosquito vector. This program is well-suited for resource-limited settings since it utilizes readily available technologies that do not rely on Internet access for daily use and can easily be implemented in many developing countries for very little cost.

/pdf/combining-google-earth-and-gis-mapping-technologies-in-a-3mbz3tdv81.pdf

Combining google earth and gis mapping technologies in a dengue surveillance system for developing countries

To study a 2001 dengue fever outbreak in Iracoubo, French Guiana, we recorded the location of all patients’ homes and the date when symptoms were first observed. A geographic information system was used to integrate the patient-related information. The Knox test, a classic space-time analysis technique, was used to detect spatiotemporal clustering. Analysis of the relative-risk (RR) variations when space and time distances vary, highlighted the maximum space and time extent of a dengue transmission focus. The results show that heterogeneity in the RR variations in space and time corresponds to known entomologic and epidemiologic factors, such as the mosquito feeding cycle and host-seeking behavior. This finding demonstrates the relevance and potential of the use of GIS and spatial statistics for elaborating a dengue fever surveillance strategy.

/pdf/dengue-spatial-and-temporal-patterns-french-guiana-2001-56c4mfz7z0.pdf

Franck Remy

Papers

Dengue spatial and temporal patterns, French Guiana, 2001.