We live in an age in which … honesty is possible only when it skirts the edges of cynicism. All this is rather tragic. … Yet there is beauty in our tragedy. We are, at least, rid of some of our illusions. We can no longer buy the highest satisfactions of the individual life at the expense of our social injustice. We cannot build individual ladders to heaven and leave the total human enterprise unredeemed of its excesses and corruptions.—Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society

https://ttj.sagepub.com/content/65/3/279.full.pdf

We Have Met the Enemy And

: We describe the experimental methodology developed and employed in a series of experiments within the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Conflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes Exploration (COMPOEX) Program. The primary purpose of the effort was the development of tools and methods for analysis, planning, and predictive assessment of plans for complex operations where integrated political- military-economic-social-infrastructure and information (PMESII) considerations play decisive roles. As part of the program, our team executed several broad-based experiments, involving dozens of experts from several agencies simultaneously. The methodology evolved from one experiment to another because of the lessons learned. The paper presents the motivation, objectives, and structure of this interagency experiment series; the methods we explored in the experiments; and the results, lessons learned, and recommendations for future efforts of such nature.

Whole-of-Government Planning and Wargaming of Complex International Operations: Experimental Evaluation of Methods and Tools

This article focuses on understanding human behaviour by providing an insight into its underlying mechanisms, and aims to widen the view on the military possibilities for achieving mission goals. The article intends to trigger a more behaviour-oriented view on military operations: how military actions can influence behaviour and thereby achieve military goals, by integrating traditional with non-traditional military responses. It describes what the authors think needs to change in the military mindset and the process of design in order to effectively employ military means to affect cognitive processes and change human behaviour in traditional and non-traditional ways. Manoeuvre is also psychological influence, and psychological engagement is also playing hardball. Incorporating all methods in military actions is inevitable.

Behavioural change as the core of warfighting : So now what?

De rol van een militair operationeel analist is het effectief communiceren van zijn of haar wetenschappelijk onderbouwde inzichten, adviezen en evaluaties voor de optimale inzet van militaire systemen en technologie. Operationele Analyse (OA) heeft haar nut bewezen bij verschillende operaties in de Tweede Wereldoorlog en daarna. OA heeft zich ontwikkeld tot een multidisciplinair wetenschapsgebied waarbij menselijk gedrag, onzekerheid en complexiteit in de modellen en methoden worden meegenomen. De vraag is of toepassing van nieuwe OA-technieken ook meerwaarde heeft voor actuele en toekomstige militaire uitdagingen. En wat is nu precies het kenmerkende van militaire OA?

Operationele Analyse : Science at the frontline

Abstract Fewer qualified platforms and reduced personnel within the navy are the reality for many nations, although operational requirements might have remained the same or increased over time. At the same time, research is advancing in unmanned and autonomous systems, which have also found application in military use. Therefore, navies need to develop approaches for effective technological transformation. To fulfil this need, this study aims to identify and describe the relevant research from different disciplines and their respective relation to the design of future navies. The study commences with a literature review related to knowledge support for understanding how emerging technologies, such as maritime autonomous systems (MAS), find their place in a military organisation. The findings suggest that the armed forces should be categorised as a sociotechnical system, built of systems-of-systems that together enable capability, and that it is as a capability enforcer that the overall system should be developed. This highlights the importance of structural and organisational changes in making the best use of the technology, as well as in making the sociotechnical system as efficient as possible. Therefore, the armed forces need to be learning organisations, exercising joint planning, where there is room for knowledge sharing and flexibility within the organisation despite different hierarchical layers.

Military organisations and emerging technologies – How do unmanned systems find a role in future navies?

Modern warfighting is not only conducted on the physical battlefield but also engages actors in the information and human landscapes. Across these landscapes many types of actors characterize a comprehensive environment. A commander and staff follow the operations planning process to translate a desired end-state to tactical effects and activities. Understanding the interactions between actors and factors that shape conflict and understanding how they can be influenced is highly challenging. Modeling and simulation methods that aim to describe and understand the behavior of complex systems can serve to structure information, derive problem insights, and identify effective interventions. These methods are not, however, common as part of operations planning and intelligence processes. This paper documents findings based on reported experiences from practice and based on concept development and experimentation workshops conducted with Dutch Armed Forces stakeholders. We identify eight challenges to the adoption of modeling and simulation in operations planning. We then present a decision support concept that incorporates several elements to counter the challenges identified in the form of a prototype approach called Comprehensive Operations Support with Modeling and Simulation (COSMOS). We describe the approach along several process steps, illustrated by examples from the concept development and experimentation case studies. We identify several avenues for future research assisting adoption of modeling and simulation in the operations planning process.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1548512918814407

Concept development for comprehensive operations support with modeling and simulation

Growing complexity, technological advancements and a new tactical and strategic reality are driving the development of new concepts of operations within the Netherlands The future operating environment is envisioned as a complex eco system A tightly coupled system of systems in which flows of goods, services, information, capital, people, and material shape the resilience of society, behaviour of actors and the outcome of conflict. In this world view, flows and flow knots are the objectives to engage or protect This is referred to as :‘control by flow interdiction’ A new operating concept requires a new way of studying the operating environment.

G.A. Veldhuis

Papers

Concept development for comprehensive operations support with modeling and simulation

Analysis of complex mission environments: Towards a method for control by flow interdiction