Southeast Asia (SE Asia) is a known global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism, yet the region is also one of the most biotically threatened. Ecosystems across the region are threatened by an array of drivers, each of which increases the probability of extinction of species in a variety of ecosystems. These issues are symptomatic of the issues that face the global tropics; however, with around 4 billion people in the wider region and the associated pressures on biodiversity, this region may be under some of the greatest levels of biotic threat. Deforestation rates in SE Asia are some of the highest globally, additionally it has the highest rate of mining in the tropics, around the greatest number of hydropower dams under construction, and a consumption of species for traditional medicines which is a threat to biodiversity globally. In this review, the greatest threats to regional biodiversity in the SE Asian region are discussed. Tree-plantations and deforestation represent one of the most imminent threats, and some countries have already lost over half their original forest cover (i.e., the Philippines, parts of Indonesia), with projections of as much as 98% loss for some regions in the coming decade. Hunting and trade represent a significant threat as demand stems not only for food, but also for medicine, for ornamentation, and as a status symbol. Mining represents a frequently overlooked threat, as the Asian region is one of the greatest exporters of limestone and various minerals globally, and the cost of this to biodiversity is not only through the direct loss of areas for mines, but also through the development of roads that further fragment the landscape, the leakage of heavy metals, and the destruction of limestone karsts, which represent global endemicity hotspots. Reservoir construction, wetland drainage, fires, pollution, invasive species, disease, and finally climate change are also considered. Once each issue has been discussed, the overall prognosis of regional biodiversity and priority actions to protect SE Asian biodiversity in the future is discussed.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecs2.1624

Understanding the drivers of Southeast Asian biodiversity loss

In July 2016, the European Commission (EC) published a legislative proposal for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) into its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The Climate and Energy Framework aims at a total emission reduction of 40% by 2030 for all sectors together as part of the Paris Agreement. The LULUCF proposal regulates a “no debit” target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils), and regulates the accounting of any additional mitigation potential that might be expected of it. We find that the forest share of the LULUCF sector can achieve much more than what is in the regulation now. We elaborate a strategy for unlocking European Union (EU) forests and forest sector potential based on the concept of “climate smart forestry” (CSF). We find that to-date, European policy has not firmly integrated forest potential into the EU climate policy framework. Nor have climate objectives been firmly integrated into those of the forest and forest sector at either the EU or national level. Yet a wide range of measures can be applied to provide positive incentives for more firmly integrating these climate objectives into the forest and forest sector framework. With the right set of incentives in place at EU and Member States levels, we find the current literature supports the view that the EU has the potential to achieve an additional combined mitigation impact through CSF of 441 Mt CO2/year by 2050. In addition, CSF, through reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, adapting and building forest resilience, and sustainably increasing forest productivity and incomes, tackles multiple policy goals.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/8/12/484/pdf

By 2050 the Mitigation Effects of EU Forests Could Nearly Double through Climate Smart Forestry

Risks can generally be described as the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Using this framework, we evaluated the historical and future development of risk of fire and wind damage in European forestry at the national level. Fire risk is expected to increase, mainly as a consequence of an increase in fire hazard, defined as the Fire Weather Index in summer. Exposure, defined as forest area, is expected to increase slightly as a consequence of active afforestation and abandonment of marginal agricultural areas. Adaptation options to fire risk should therefore aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect. Risk for wind damage in forests is expected to increase mainly as a consequence of increase in exposure (total growing stock) and vulnerability (defined by age class and tree species distribution). Projections of future wind climate indicate an increase in hazard (storminess) mainly over Western Europe. Adaptation options should aim to limit the increase in exposure and vulnerability. Only an increase in harvest level can stop the current build-up of growing stock, while at the same time it will lower vulnerability through the reduction of the share of old and vulnerable stands. Changing species from conifers to broadleaves helps to reduce vulnerability as well. Lowering vulnerability by decreasing the rotation length is only effective in combination with a high demand for wood. Due to data limitations, no forecast of future fire area or damaged timber amount by storms was possible.

Assessing risk and adaptation options to fires and windstorms in European forestry.

Forests of the European Union (EU) have been intensively managed for decades, and they have formed a significant sink for carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere over the past 50 years. The reasons for this behavior are multiple, among them are: forest aging, area expansion, increasing plant productivity due to environmental changes of many kinds, and, most importantly, the growth rates of European foest having been higher than harvest rates. EU countries have agreed to reduce total emissions of GHG by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990, excluding the forest sink. 

A relevant question for climate policy is: how long will the current sink of EU forests be maintained in the near future? And could it be affected by other mitigation measures such as bioenergy? In this article we assess tradeoffs of bioenergy use and carbon sequestration at large scale and describe results of the comparison of two advanced forest management models that are used to project CO2 emission and removals from EU forests until 2030. EFISCEN, a detailed statistical matrix model and G4M, a geographically explicit economic forestry model, use scenarios of future harvest rates and forest growth information to estimate the future carbon balance of forest biomass. Two scenarios were assessed: the EU baseline scenario and the EU reference scenario (including additional bioenergy and climate policies). 

Our projections suggest a significant decline of the sink until 2030 in the baseline scenario of about 25-40% (or 65-125 Mt CO2) compared to the models' 2010 estimate. Including additional bioenergy targets of EU member states has an effect on the development of this sink, which is not accounted in the EU emission reduction target. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of future wood demand and proved the importance of this driver for the future sink development.

Projection of the future EU forest CO2 sink as affected by recent bioenergy policies using two advanced forest management models.

Au titre de ses engagements, la France doit comptabiliser annuellement les changements d’occupation du sol et les flux de carbone associes. Cet inventaire, realise par le Citepa, est delicat a evaluer, car les donnees sources sont complexes et contradictoires. En outre, ce secteur presente des enjeux strategiques dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Les limites de cet inventaire sont de plusieurs ordres : donnees sources imparfaites ; manque de connaissance sur les autres donnees existantes pouvant etre utilisees; incertitude mal evaluee ; necessite de validation de la pertinence des dynamiques estimees. 
L’objectif de cette these est d’analyser et d’evaluer les donnees sources (actuelles et potentielles) des matrices de changements d’occupation du sol afin d’ameliorer la robustesse de l’inventaire. Il s’agit d’expertiser par une demarche scientifique la pertinence de l’inventaire. En particulier, il s’agit de comprendre les causes des incertitudes des donnees sources ; compiler les donnees disponibles et leurs metadonnees ; etudier qualitativement les dynamiques paysageres; et redefinir un cadre methodologique permettant d’estimer des taux de changements plus pertinents.
Les resultats de ces travaux montrent que les niveaux de resolutions spatiales, thematiques et temporelles les plus precis entrainent la detection de faux positifs : la pertinence est a preferer a la precision, et les effets de dependance d’echelle doivent etre pris en compte. La these propose enfin un cadre d’interoperabilite afin d’integrer des donnees heterogenes au sein d’un nouveau protocole de modelisation alliant reestimation des changements et allocation spatiale.

Comprendre les changements d'utilisation des terres en France pour mieux estimer leurs impacts sur les émissions de gaz à effet de serre : De l'observation à la modélisation

Forests sequester large amounts of carbon and are important for nature conservation. These functions can be important in contributing to targets set by the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation?s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD). This report lists possible measures to increase the capacity of forest ecosystems to act as carbon sink. The most promising options are evaluated quantitatively in terms of carbon and qualitatively in terms of biodiversity.

/pdf/selection-and-quantification-of-forestry-measures-targeted-5brbk7b8iu.pdf

Selection and quantification of forestry measures targeted at the Kyoto Protocol and the Convention on Biodiversity

This research report gives insight into possible future development directions of the forests of CEC and NIS countries in order to contribute to current discussions about sustainability, the future biological potential, management options and impacts of environmental changes. With a large scale scenario model (EFISCEN), a quantitative assessment of future wood production in Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Ukraine, its degree of sustainability under various scenarios of forest growth and timber harvest, and the overall consequences of forest decline and climate change on future wood supply was made.

Scenarios on forest management in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Ukraine

Forests contribute considerably to the terrestrial carbon sink. Although the speed of uptake is generally low, the stocks in both biomass and soil are high. Within the Kyoto Protocol, active forest management can be used to reach the goals for emission reduction. In this report, an extensive list of measures is compiled detailing the ways in which forestry could contribute to an enhanced sink, or could reduce emissions. Most measures in forest management will have small effects, and these effects will generally only become visible in the long term. Effective measures can be divided into three categories; firstly, those that protect existing carbon stocks. Such measures include avoiding deforestation, not harvesting stands with high carbon contents, increased fire prevention and minimising site preparation. Secondly, those that aim to increase average carbon stocks, such as afforestation, conversion to continuous cover forestry and changes in rotation length. The third category are measures that aim at harvesting biomass to create bioenergy. Such measures could be the use of logging residues, increasing the amount of fellings aimed at bioenergy wood, the (re)introduction of pre-commercial thinnings, and the establishment of short rotation coppice.

G.J. Nabuurs

Papers

Selection and quantification of forestry measures targeted at the Kyoto Protocol and the Convention on Biodiversity

Scenarios on forest management in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Ukraine

Survey of technical and management-based mitigation measures in forestry

Expected impact of the Kyoto Protocol on European forestry