Policy questions are often framed in popular discussion as situations where pulling the right levers will get the economy and society back on track after shocks and crises. This approach ignores how systems interact and how their systemic properties shape socioeconomic outcomes, leading to an over-emphasis on a limited set of characteristics, notably efficiency. We argue that this emphasis on efficiency in the operation, management and outcomes of various economic and social systems is not a conscious collective choice, but rather the response of the whole system to the incentives that individual components face. This has brought much of the world to rely upon complex, nested, and interconnected systems to deliver goods and services around the globe. While this approach has many benefits, the Covid-19 crisis shows how it has also reduced the resilience of key systems to shocks, and allowed failures to cascade from one system to others. This paper reviews the impact of COVID-19 on socioeconomic systems, discusses the notion of resilience, and provides specific recommendations on both integrating resilience analytics for recovery from the current crisis as well as on building resilient infrastructure to address future systemic challenges.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10669-020-09776-x.pdf

Bouncing forward: a resilience approach to dealing with COVID-19 and future systemic shocks.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end. 

/pdf/a-multinational-delphi-consensus-to-end-the-covid-19-public-3techjk7.pdf

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Delivering infrastructure, resilient to multiple natural hazards and climate change, is fundamental to continued economic prosperity and social coherence. This is a strategic priority of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), public policies and global initiatives. The operability and functionality of critical infrastructure are continuously challenged by multiple stressors, increasing demands and ageing, whilst their interconnectedness and dependencies pose additional challenges. Emerging and disruptive digital technologies have the potential to enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure, by providing rapid and accurate assessment of asset condition and support decision-making and adaptation. In this pursuit, it is imperative to adopt multidisciplinary roadmaps and deploy computational, communication and other digital technologies, tools and monitoring systems. Nevertheless, the potential of these emerging technolo- gies remains largely unexploited, as there is a lack of consensus, integrated approaches and legislation in support of their use. In this perspective paper, we discuss the main challenges and enablers of climate-resilient infrastructure and we identify how available roadmaps, tools and emerging digital technologies, e.g. Internet of Things, digital twins, point clouds, Artificial In- telligence, Building Information Modelling, can be placed at the service of a safer world. We show how digital technologies will lead to infrastructure of enhanced resilience, by delivering efficient and reliable decision-making, in a proactive and/or reactive manner, prior, during and after hazard occurrences. In this respect, we discuss how emerging technologies significantly reduce the uncertainties in all phases of infrastructure resilience evaluations. Thus, building climate-resilient infrastructure, aided by digital technologies, will underpin critical activities globally, contribute to Net Zero target and hence safeguard our societies and economies. To achieve this we set an agenda, which is aligned with the relevant SDGs and highlights the urgent need to deliver holistic and inclusive standards and legislation, supported by coordinated alliances, to fully utilise emerging digital technologies.

Digital technologies can enhance climate resilience of critical infrastructure

Pharmaceutical companies, upstream suppliers, associated logistics providers, health workers, regulatory agencies, public health experts and ultimately the medical practitioners and general public have been navigating an increasingly globalized vaccine supply chain; any disruption to the supply chain may cause cascading failure and have devastating consequences. The COVID-19 pandemic has already highlighted the lack of resilience in supply chains, as global networks fail from disruptions at single nodes and connections. As the race for a COVID-19 vaccine continues, the importance of not only an efficient supply chain but a resilient vaccine supply chain capable of reliable production and reaching target populations despite likely but currently unknown disruptions is imperative. Proactively applying resilience analytics to vaccine supply chain models will increase the probability that vaccination programs meet their goals. Without such a network in place for manufacture and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine, even the most efficacious and safe vaccine will not prove viable. Through an overview of the existing vaccine and pharmaceutical supply chain publications focusing on resilience, as well as recent papers reporting modeling of resilience in supply chains across multiple fields, we find that models for supply chain resilience are few and most of them are focused on individual dimensions of resilience rather than on comprehensive strategy necessary for scaling up vaccine production and distribution in emergency settings. We find that COVID-19 resulted in a wave of interest to supply chain resilience, but publications from 2020 are narrow in focus and largely qualitative in nature; evidence-based models and measures are rare. Further, publications often focus exclusively on specific portions of the specific supply chain of interest, excluding associated supporting networks, such as transportation, social and command and control (C2) necessary for vaccine production and equitable distribution. This lack of network analysis is a major gap in the literature that needs to be bridged in order to create methods of real-time analysis and decision tools for the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain. We conclude that a comprehensive, quantitative approach to network resilience that encompasses the supply chain in the context of other social and physical networks is needed in order to address the emerging challenges of a large-scale COVID-19 vaccination program. We further find that the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the necessity of positioning supply chain resilience within a multi-network context and formally incorporating temporal dimensions into analysis through the NAS definition of resilience—plan, absorb, recover, adapt—to ensure essential needs are met across all dimensions of society. Modeling and analyzing vaccine supply chain resilience ensures that value is maintained should disruptions occur.

The Vaccine Supply Chain: A Call for Resilience Analytics to Support COVID-19 Vaccine Production and Distribution

http://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140673622015859/pdf

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic

Resilience is an emerging approach that emphasizes the capacity of an organization to expeditiously recover from and adapt to adverse events. Theoretically, such an approach could help many organizations and systems address the inherent uncertainty and complexity within their operations and better overcome disruptions or shocks, which would otherwise threaten to degrade or destroy the organization's core operations. In practice, however, a lack of consistency in how resilience is applied and measured can limit its effectiveness to assist organizations in this task. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is particularly interested in applying principles of resilience to emerging threats to economic and social prosperity amongst its member states, yet also applies resilience in various application areas via comparable yet different definitions. A greater harmonization of resilience across OECD's Directorates and affiliate groups is intended to improve the organization's capacity to identify and address emerging systemic threats and produce suggestions for good governance to meet these threats as they arise in the coming years.

Resilience at OECD: Current State and Future Directions

Is there a way to soften the impact of another financial crisis? As national governments and global institutions grapple with the coronavirus pandemic, popular discussion has turned to how countrie...

Gabriela Ramos

Papers

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic

Resilience at OECD: Current State and Future Directions

Resilient Financial Systems Can Soften the Next Global Financial Crisis