Showing papers by "Gary Polhill published in 2012"

Shocks in coupled socio-ecological systems: what are they and how can we model them?

Abstract: Coupled socio-ecological systems (SES) are complex systems characterized by self-organization, non-linearities, interactions among heterogeneous elements within each subsystem, and feedbacks across scales and among subsystems. When such a system experiences a shock or a crisis, the consequences are difficult to predict. In this paper we first define what a shock or a crisis means for SES. Depending on where the system boundary is drawn, shocks can be seen as exogenous or endogenous. For example, human intervention in environmental systems could be seen as exogenous, but endogenous in a socio-environmental system. This difference in the origin and nature of shocks has certain consequences for coupled SES and for policies to ameliorate negative consequences of shocks. Having defined shocks, the paper then focuses on modelling challenges when studying shocks in coupled SES. If we are to explore, study and predict the responses of coupled SES to shocks, the models used need to be able to accommodate (exogenous) or produce (endogenous) a shock event. Various modelling choices need to be made. Specifically, the ‘sudden’ aspect of a shock suggests the time period over which an event claimed to be a shock occurred might be ‘quick’. What does that mean for a discrete event model? Turning to magnitude, what degree of change (in a variable or set of variables) is required for the event to be considered a shock? The ‘surprising’ nature of a shock means that none of the agents in the model should expect the shock to happen, but may need rules enabling them to generate behaviour in exceptional circumstances. This requires a certain design of the agents’ decision-making algorithms, their perception of a shock, memory of past events and formation of expectations, and the information available to them during the time the shock occurred.

An ontology-based design for modelling case studies of everyday proenvironmental behaviour in the workplace

Abstract: This paper outlines the design of a model for simulating six case studies of everyday pro-environmental behaviour in the workplace. Rather than creating six separate models, we want to exploit similarities among the case studies and maximise code re-use – a problem common in the world of integrated modelling. Noting concerns about modular integrated modelling that have been raised by numbers of authors, we start from a standpoint of viewing integrated modelling as a problem of semantic integration. A system for integrated modelling using OWL ontologies as the medium of representation of the structure and state of the model at any one time is presented and an early prototype implementation of the case study model evaluated.