語用論(Pragmatics)を考える

Ethnic Groups in Conflict

Theory: A synthetic theoretical model built on both deprivation and resource mobilization arguments is constructed to explain ethnopolitical rebellion for the 1 980s and to provide risk assessments for the early 1990s. Hypotheses: We hypothesize that ethnopolitical groups which produce residuals well below the regression line will likely exhibit rebellious behavior in the early 1990s. Methods: We use a three stage least squares estimator, analyze the coefficients and their standard errors, and also examine the residuals. Results: We find broad support for the theoretical synthesis, but focus attention on the risk assessments. In addition to identifying ethnopolitical groups that did resort to greater violence in the early 1 990s, the theoretical model helps us explain why a number of groups that the analysis suggested would rebel in the early 1 990s have not in fact done so.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/2960482

Ethnopolitical Rebellion: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the 1980s with Risk Assessments for the 1990s

Arguments have consequences in world politics that are as real as the military forces of states or the balance of power among them. Neta Crawford proposes a theory of argument in world politics which focuses on the role of ethical arguments in fostering changes in long-standing practices. She examines five hundred years of history, analyzing the role of ethical arguments in colonialism, the abolition of slavery and forced labour, and decolonization. Pointing out that decolonization is the biggest change in world politics in the last five hundred years, the author examines ethical arguments from the sixteenth century justifying Spanish conquest of the Americas, and from the twentieth century over the fate of Southern Africa. The book also offers a prescriptive analysis of how ethical arguments could be deployed to deal with the problem of humanitarian intervention. Co-winner of the APSA Jervis-Schroeder Prize for the best book on international history and politics.

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Argument and Change in World Politics: Ethics, Decolonization, and Humanitarian Intervention

1. Introduction Part I. Restoring the Practical Logic of Peace: 2. The logic of practicality: a theory of practice of security communities 3. A 'sobjective' methodology for the study of practicality Part II. The Symbolic Power Politics of NATO-Russia Diplomacy: 4. The logic of practicality at the NATO-Russia council 5. The early steps: NATO, Russia and the double enlargement, 1992-7 6. The fallout: NATO and Russia from Kosovo to Georgia, 1998-2008 7. Conclusion.

International security in practice : the politics of NATO-Russia diplomacy

This essay proposes dialogical analysis as a method of modeling political interactions. The method combines the formal theory of dialogical disputation, a family of theories drawn from linguistic pragmatics, and formal proof procedures. By analyzing models of their explicit and implicit contents in context, the method identifies the argumentative thrust of negotiation dialogues and shows systematically how the parties signal intent and commitment to one another. The paper illustrates the method by applying it to superpower interactions in the 1980s INF negotiations. The analysis indicates that American force deployments did not motivate the Soviet retreat from their early insistence on compensation for European missiles. The change in the Soviet position is better attributed to their strategic reconceptualization of the Cold War insecurity dilemma.

Language Games: Dialogical Analysis of INF Negotiations

Conflict elites often mobilize by distributing to their constituents solidary incentives to participation. Although elites find this strategy relatively cost-free at mobilization time, it greatly limits their action possibilities at conflict settlement time. The non-retractability of solidary incentives limits the ability of leaders to accommodate their adversaries. It thereby tends to produce protracted conflicts. This article draws upon the Serbo-Croatian conflict to illustrate this general proposition. It shows how distributions of solidary incentives contributed to the protractedness of the 1990-95 conflict between Croatia and Serbia following the dissolution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The reliance of political leaders on solidary incentives also helps account for subsequent difficulties in implementing the Dayton Peace Agreement. The article concludes by reflecting on how the non-retractability of solidary incentives could affect practical strategies for producing peace in this setting.

Conflicting Identities: Solidary Incentives in the Serbo-croatian War

Constructivists often refer to the end of the Cold War to illustrate their contention that social rules are not immutable. Agents can change the rules by performing actions that undermine them. In this article, we describe the Cold War as a set of social rules sustained by superpower speech acts. We show that, by altering their behavior, the superpowers undermined the felicity of these rules. In so doing, they progressively dismantled the rules of the Cold War. Our model captures the competing arguments in the ongoing debate about whether the rationalist buildup argument or the constructivist new thinking argument better explains the end of the Cold War. Within the model, we identify the rules that, when made infelicitous by the superpowers, resolves tensions in the Cold War rule system in ways consistent with each argument. We conclude by showing how these competing arguments are reflected in contemporary debates concerning the nature of the global security rules emerging in the post-cold-war world.

Changing the Rules: A Speech Act Analysis of the End of the Cold War

Concurrent interstate conflict simulations: Testing the effects of the serial assumption

Scholars who apply artificial mtelligence to political questions seek, most generally, to expand the scope and relevance of political model analysis. By incorporating the effects of variable human notions, traditions, and meanings, they seek to humanize political models. Most early applications of artificial intelligence in political science research address substantive issues pertaining to political decision making. Most of these works apply production-system technology to construct choice models in for eign-policy decision contexts. In recent years, political applications have begun to diver sify. Today, lively research efforts flourish in widely varied application areas, such as computational text analysis, logic programming, computer learning, and conflict sim ulation. The works reviewed here constitute the early steps of a nascent program of study. Much remains to be accomplished. Nevertheless, the efforts conducted thus far suggest many potentially fruitful research avenues. Keywords: artificial int...

Gavan Duffy

Papers

Language Games: Dialogical Analysis of INF Negotiations

Conflicting Identities: Solidary Incentives in the Serbo-croatian War

Changing the Rules: A Speech Act Analysis of the End of the Cold War

Concurrent interstate conflict simulations: Testing the effects of the serial assumption

Political Science: Artificial Intelligence Applications