Showing papers by "Gerald L. Potter published in 2004"

Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

Abstract: To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes, in particular, should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provided that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by a realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be test...

Testing the impact of clouds on the radiation budgets of 19 atmospheric general circulation models

Abstract: [1] We compare cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) at the top-of-the atmosphere from 19 atmospheric general circulation models, employing simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures, to observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). With respect to 60°N to 60°S means, a surprising result is that many of the 19 models produce unusually large biases in Net CRF that are all of the same sign (negative), meaning that many of the models significantly overestimate cloud radiative cooling. The primary focus of this study, however, is to demonstrate a diagnostic procedure, using ERBE data, to test if a model might produce, for a given region, reasonable CRF as a consequence of compensating errors caused either by unrealistic cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. For this purpose we have chosen two regions, one in the western tropical Pacific characterized by high clouds spanning the range from thin cirrus to deep convective clouds, and the other in the southeastern Pacific characterized by trade cumulus. For a subset of eight models, it is found that most typically produce more realistic regionally-averaged CRF (and its longwave and shortwave components) for the southeastern region as opposed to the western region. However, when the diagnostic procedure for investigating cloud vertical structure and cloud optical depth is imposed, this somewhat better agreement in the southeastern region is found to be the result of compensating errors in either cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. The comparison with ERBE data also shows large errors in clear-sky fluxes for many of the models.

Impact of a revised convective triggering mechanism on Community Atmosphere Model, Version 2, simulations: Results from short‐range weather forecasts

Abstract: [1] This study implements a revised convective triggering condition in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, Version 2 (CAM2), model to reduce its excessive warm season daytime precipitation over land. The new triggering mechanism introduces a simple dynamic constraint on the initiation of convection that emulates the collective effects of lower level moistening and upward motion of the large-scale circulation. It requires a positive contribution from the large-scale advection of temperature and moisture to the existing positive convective available potential energy (CAPE) for model convection to start. In contrast, the original convection triggering function in CAM2 assumes that convection is triggered whenever there is positive CAPE, which results in too frequent warm season convection over land arising from strong diurnal variation of solar radiation. We examine the impact of the new trigger on CAM2 simulations by running the climate model in numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode so that more available observations and high-frequency NWP analysis data can be used to evaluate model performance. We show that the modified triggering mechanism has led to considerable improvements in the simulation of precipitation, temperature, moisture, clouds, radiations, surface temperature, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes when compared to the data collected from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Similar improvements are also seen over other parts of the globe. In particular, the surface precipitation simulation has been significantly improved over both the continental United States and around the globe; the overestimation of high clouds in the equatorial tropics has been substantially reduced; and the temperature, moisture, and zonal wind are more realistically simulated. Results from this study also show that some systematic errors in the CAM2 climate simulations can be detected in the early stage of model integration. Examples are the extremely overestimated high clouds in the tropics in the vicinity of Intertropical Convergence Zone and the spurious precipitation maximum to the east of the Rockies. This has important implications in studies of these model errors since running the climate model in NWP mode allows us to perform a more in-depth analysis during a short time period where more observations are available and different model errors from various processes have not compensated for the systematic errors.

The 1997/98 El Niño: A test for climate models

Abstract: [1] Version 3 of the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) has been used to demonstrate one means of comparing a general circulation model with observations for a specific climate perturbation, namely the strong 1997/98 El Nino. This event was characterized by the collapse of the tropical Pacific's Walker circulation, caused by the lack of a zonal sea surface temperature gradient during the El Nino. Relative to normal years, cloud altitudes were lower in the western portion of the Pacific and higher in the eastern portion. HadAM3 likewise produced the observed collapse of the Walker circulation, and it did a reasonable job of reproducing the west/east cloud structure changes. This illustrates that the 1997/98 El Nino serves as a useful means of testing cloud-climate interactions in climate models.

Impact of a Revised Convective Triggering Mechanism on CAM2 Model Simulations: Results from Short-Range Weather Forecasts

Abstract: This study implements a revised convective triggering condition in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) model to reduce its excessive warm season daytime precipitation over land. The new triggering mechanism introduces a simple dynamic constraint on the initiation of convection that emulates the collective effects of lower level moistening and upward motion of the large-scale circulation. It requires a positive contribution from the large-scale advection of temperature and moisture to the existing positive Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for model convection to start. In contrast, the original convection triggering function in CAM2 assumes that convection is triggered whenever there is positive CAPE, which results in too frequent warm season convection over land arising from strong diurnal variation of solar radiation. We examine the impact of the new trigger on CAM2 simulations by running the climate model in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) mode so that more available observations and high-frequency NWP analysis data can be used to evaluate model performance. We show that the modified triggering mechanism has led to considerable improvements in the simulation of precipitation, temperature, moisture, clouds, radiations, surface temperature, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes when compared to the data collectedmore » from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its South Great Plains (SGP) site. Similar improvements are also seen over other parts of the globe. In particular, the surface precipitation simulation has been significantly improved over both the continental United States and around the globe; the overestimation of high clouds in the equatorial tropics has been substantially reduced; and the temperature, moisture, and zonal wind are more realistically simulated. Results from this study also show that some systematic errors in the CAM2 climate simulations can be detected in the early stage of model integration. Examples are the extremely overestimated high clouds in the tropics in the vicinity of ITCZ and the spurious precipitation maximum in the east of the Rockies. This has important implications in studies of these model errors since running the climate model in NWP mode allows us to perform a more in-depth analysis during a short time period where more observations are available and different model errors from various processes have not compensated for the systematic errors.« less