The problem of aggregating WEIS events data, coded as discrete events, into a continuous time series representing conflict or cooperation between two nations is discussed. Past literature on the su...

A Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Events Data

Traditionally, the manufacturer/operator of a machine is held (morally and legally) responsible for the consequences of its operation. Autonomous, learning machines, based on neural networks, genetic algorithms and agent architectures, create a new situation, where the manufacturer/operator of the machine is in principle not capable of predicting the future machine behaviour any more, and thus cannot be held morally responsible or liable for it. The society must decide between not using this kind of machine any more (which is not a realistic option), or facing a responsibility gap, which cannot be bridged by traditional concepts of responsibility ascription.

The responsibility gap: Ascribing responsibility for the actions of learning automata

In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco-nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.

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Conflict and cooperation over international freshwater resources: Indicators of basins at risk

This article discusses research on the machine coding of international event data from international and regional news sources using the Kansas Event Data System (KEDS). First, we suggest that the definition of an “event” should be modified so that events are explicitly and unambiguously defined in terms of natural language. Second, we discuss KEDS: a Macintosh-based machine coding system using pattern recognition and simple linguistic parsing to code events using the WEIS event categories. Third, we compare the Reuters international news service reports with those of two specialized regional sources: the foreign policy chronologies in the Journal of Palestine Studies and the German language biweekly publication Informationen .

We conclude by noting that machine coding, when combined with the numerous sources of machine-readable text that have become available in the past decade, has the potential to provide a much richer source of event data on international political interactions than that currently available. The ease of machine coding should encourage the creation of event coding schemes developed to address specific theoretical concerns; the increased density of these new data sets may allow the study of problems that could not be analyzed before.

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Machine coding of event data using regional and international sources

Although the role of reciprocity in international cooperation is central to neoliberal institutionalism, empirical understanding of the concept remains weak. We analyze strategic response patterns—the use of reciprocity or inverse response (bullying)—in the Bosnia conflict from 1992 to 1995. We construct weekly time series of conflict and cooperation among the parties to the Bosnia war, using machine-coded events data. Time-series statistical analysis identifies several important patterns of strategic response, both reciprocal and inverse. These include bilateral responses, which are central to the concepts of reciprocity and evolution of cooperation, and triangular responses, which are central to the debates on containment versus accommodation in regional conflicts. Specifically, Serb forces displayed inverse triangular response, cooperating toward Bosnia after being punished by NATO. Outside powers displayed triangular reciprocity, increasing hostility toward Serb forces after Serbian attacks on the Bosnian government.

/pdf/reciprocity-bullying-and-international-cooperation-time-52n7qk2uz9.pdf

Reciprocity, Bullying, and International Cooperation: Time-series Analysis of the Bosnia Conflict

The rise and fall of event data: From basic research to applied use in the u.s. department of defense

Research progress in the comparative analysis of foreign policy has been impeded by the absence of a viable framework for analysis. An examination of the major published inventory of findings in this relatively young subfield demonstrates that research has been disparate, uneven, and noncumulative (McGowan and Shapiro, 1973). Only one specific area of inquiry-the study of the relationship between domestic and foreign conflict behavior-has received more than cursory scrutiny (McGowan and Shapiro, 1973: 79-83, 198-199; Wilkenfeld, 1973). Like its parent field-international politics-the comparative study of foreign policy has tended to pursue an implicit course that involves the construction of islands or clusters of theory, a

A Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policy Behavior

Two interactive decision aids developed to support tactical planners at the Corps level are considered. The article presents the systems design process used to design and develop the aids as well as a description of the specific steps taken to conduct requirements analysis, develop functional "storyboards," and program the aids. Special emphasis is placed upon the use of expert planning judgment to validate requirements and "size" the aids. Both aids are configured around an interactive video disk-based display system linked to an IBM PC / AT.

Gerald W. Hopple

Papers

The rise and fall of event data: From basic research to applied use in the u.s. department of defense

A Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Foreign Policy Behavior

Intelligent Aids for Tactical Planning

Profiling States for Foreign Policy Analysis

Defense Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Progress and Prospects