计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Both practitioners and academics understand that consumer loyalty and satisfaction are linked inextricably. They also understand that this relation is asymmetric. Although loyal consumers are most ...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1252099.pdf

Whence Consumer Loyalty

Customer loyalty is viewed as the strength of the relationship between an individual’s relative attitude and repeat patronage. The relationship is seen as mediated by social norms and situational factors. Cognitive, affective, and conative antecedents of relative attitude are identified as contributing to loyalty, along with motivational, perceptual, and behavioral consequences. Implications for research and for the management of loyalty are derived.

Customer Loyalty: Toward an Integrated Conceptual Framework:

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Consumer perceived value: The development of a multiple item scale

Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in response to the Covid-19 pandemic have raised an urgent question in peoples’ minds, “How long must these restrictions last?” We propose two metrics of the spread of disease to answer this question: daily growth rate and time to double cumulative cases. These metrics enable three simple, intuitive, and actionable benchmarks to target: Moderation, Control, and Containment (growth < 10%, 1%, and 0.1% respectively). In addition, we define action or intervention as massive testing and quarantine, stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns.

An analysis of top 36 countries and 50 states of the US affected by the epidemic as of end-March yield the following results. Any moderation or slowdown has so far been due only to aggressive intervention. Countries take an average of about three weeks to act. However, even aggressive intervention does not show immediate results. Countries take an average of about three weeks to moderate, four weeks to control, and over 6 weeks to contain the spread of the disease, after aggressive intervention. Substantial differences exist between large and small and Asian and European countries in time to act. Using these findings, we predict the likely dates of moderation and control for specific countries and States of the US.

In the absence of a vaccine, cure, or massive testing and quarantine, lockdowns and stay-at-home orders will need to last for months. However, the US faces a unique challenge because only half the states have adopted aggressive intervention, and done so at varying times. Even if these states achieve control or containment, they may be vulnerable to contagion from other states that were late to do so.

How Long Should Social Distancing Last? Predicting Time to Moderation, Control, and Containment of COVID-19

A study of pairs of new products in five categories across 86 countries between 1977 and 2011 finds that most current products reach a peak at about 56% of market penetration. Subsequently they suffer a dramatic decrease in relative penetration of 286% which we call the dive. A dive occurs in 96% of 295 pairs of current-new products. On average, the time from takeoff of new product to a peak in penetration of current product is 6.6 years and to the dive of the current product is 8.4 years. The total time-to-dive includes a hidden discontinuance period (10.4 years), from the introduction of the new product to the peak of the current product, plus an overt time-to-dive (1.8 years), from the peak to the dive of the current product. The hidden discontinuance period and the overt time-to-dive are shorter and the dive is steeper in emerging markets than in developed ones. A discrete-time hazard model shows that takeoff of the new product, relative percentage growth in penetration of the current product prior to a peak, the length of the hidden discontinuance period, and prior dives in other countries predict the hazard of a dive. The models can predict the occurrence of a peak with true positive rate of 62% and a true negative rate of 87%, and a dive with a true positive rate of 82% and a true negative rate of 61%. The authors discuss important implications of these results.

The Dive & Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures, Global Patterns, and Predictive Model

Is China uniform? Intra-country differences in the takeoff of new products

Advertising is a rich, multidimensional phenomenon that has been studied in several disciplines. This research has led to an emerging body of findings and some potential generalizations. Even then, misconceptions about advertising persist, and important aspects of the phenomenon have not been adequately researched. Despite advertising's apparent weakness it is essential for free markets.

Gerard J. Tellis

Papers

How Long Should Social Distancing Last? Predicting Time to Moderation, Control, and Containment of COVID-19

The Dive & Disruption of Successful Current Products: Measures, Global Patterns, and Predictive Model

Is China uniform? Intra-country differences in the takeoff of new products

Advertising's Role in Capitalist Markets: What Do We Know and Where Do We Go from Here?

Stock Market Returns to Financial Innovations Before and During the Financial Crisis in the United States and Europe