计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

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Dismantling the Welfare State? Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment

Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives.

The world is currently experiencing a surge of international regulations aimed at limiting the development policy options of developing country governments. Of the three big agreements coming out of the Uruguay Round – on investment measures (TRIMS), trade in services (GATS), and intellectual property rights (TRIPS) – the first two limit the authority of developing country governments to constrain the choices of companies operating in their territory, while the third requires the governments to enforce rigorous property rights of foreign (generally Western) firms. Together the agreements make comprehensively illegal many of the industrial policy instruments used in the successful East Asian developers to nurture their own industrial and technological capacities and are likely to lock in the position of Western countries at the top of the world hierarchy of wealth. The paper describes how the three agreements constitute a modern version of Friedrich List’s ‘kicking away the ladder’. It then outlines some needed changes in the way we think about development and in the role of multilateral organizations. It concludes that the practical prospects for change along these lines are slender, but not negligible.

http://r4d.dfid.gov.uk/PDF/Outputs/CrisisStates/WP31RW.pdf

Working Paper No.31. What strategies are viable for developing countries today? The World Trade Organization and the shrinking of 'development space'.

The world is currently experiencing a surge of international regulations aimed at limiting the development policy options of developing country governments. Of the three big agreements coming out of the Uruguay Round ‐ on investment measures (TRIMS), trade in services (GATS), and intellectual property rights (TRIPS) ‐ the first two limit the authority of developing country governments to constrain the choices of companies operating in their territory, while the third requires the governments to enforce rigorous property rights of foreign (generally Western) firms. Together the agreements make comprehensively illegal many of the industrial policy instruments used in the successful East Asian developers to nurture their own industrial and technological capacities and are likely to lock in the position of Western countries at the top of the world hierarchy of wealth. The paper describes how the three agreements constitute a modern version of Friedrich List’s ‘kicking away the ladder’. It then outlines some needed changes in the way we think about development and in the role of multilateral organizations. It concludes that the practical prospects for change along these lines are slender, but not negligible.

/pdf/what-strategies-are-viable-for-developing-countries-today-r143gc2kzf.pdf

What strategies are viable for developing countries today? the world trade organization and the shrinking of 'development space'

In 1992, the Mozambican civil war was brought to a close, marking the beginning of a 'pacted' and fundamentally successful process of democratic change. Despite the extreme poverty of the country, Mozambique has managed to introduce a formally competitive electoral regime, in which movements that were formerly in violent opposition to one another have moved towards fragile pluralist practices, in marked contrast to, for example, Angola, whose peace process quickly unravelled. This paper examines the emergence of a two party system in Mozambique, in which the former Renamo guerrilla fighters appear to have embraced the possibilities of peace. Ultimately, however, Carbone warns against undue optimism, and highlights the weaknesses of the system that are still to be resolved. For all that the country has adopted a formally competitive political system, it continues to fall short of fully democratic and liberal practices.

/pdf/emerging-pluralist-politics-in-mozambique-the-frelimo-renamo-1nqohydypj.pdf

Emerging pluralist politics in mozambique: the frelimo- renamo party system

No-Party Democracy. Building a No-Party State in Uganda. The Political Economy of Support for the New Regime. Museveni's Political Trajectory. The Movement: A Partisan Organization in Disguise. The State of the Old Parties in a No-Party State. The Electoral Politics of No-Partyism. The Parliamentary Politics of No-Partyism. The Demise of a Democratic Model.

No-Party Democracy?: Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective

Post-conflict elections in Mozambique, held in 1994, 1999 and 2004, established a formally competitive and pluralistic system. This paper examines the country's emerging two-party system as an essential feature affecting prospects for democratic deepening and consolidation. The condition for political parties to actually help the establishment of democratic politics is their development as durable, socially rooted, country-wide effective and legitimate organisations. The paper contends that the current party system has indeed been a major instrument for political expression and for the channelling and peaceful management of conflicts. It shows how both Frelimo and Renamo – and the competition between them – have deep-seated historical origins and well-established regional roots. Yet, a number of aspects concerning the Mozambican party system negatively affect the deepening of democratic politics: the legitimacy of the party system is weakened by post-conflict polarisation and uncertain mutual recognition; the ethno-regional entrenchment of the two main parties bestows a communal connotation on electoral competition; and most importantly, the party system remains unbalanced and unevenly institutionalised, with Frelimo's disciplined and fundamentally institutionalised organisation opposed by a strongly personalistic and weakly organised Renamo, which struggles to operate within state institutions and to accommodate internal differences.

/pdf/continuidade-na-renovacao-ten-years-of-multiparty-politics-40y1srqz3m.pdf

Continuidade na renovação? Ten years of multiparty politics in Mozambique: roots, evolution and stabilisation of the Frelimo–Renamo party system

Giovanni Carbone is lecturer in political science at the Universita degli Studi di Milano and visiting fellow at the Crisis States Research Centre of the London School of Economics. This essay is part of a research project cofunded by the Italian Ministry of Universities and Research and the Universita degli Studi di Milano. In recent decades, growing numbers of countries have embraced demo- cratic institutions as a result of both domestic and external pressures. A "spirit of democracy" has come to pervade the international community. Today, there is no need to espouse the notion of an "end of history" to appreciate that no other form of state—save perhaps, in some regions, the Islamist form—possesses anywhere near the kind of international legitimacy that democracy enjoys. Democracy, it would seem, has been gradually defeating its rivals. It is precisely because of its widespread legitimacy and rapid expan- sion, however, that the question of what democracy is "good for" is becoming ever more pressing. People living in recently democratized states will soon begin asking, if they have not already done so, what their new regimes have brought. Most citizens will probably acknowledge and dearly prize the rights and freedoms that constitute the foundations of democratic life. In some places and at some times, however, others will consider a broader balance sheet. They may ask whether democracy has been costing them more war, social inequality, or economic stagna- tion, for example. They may raise questions about whether, in view of adverse outcomes, democratic arrangements still make sense. By that time, the legitimacy that democracy currently enjoys at the global level may be eroding, and democracy's future may look shakier. But does democracy actually come at a cost, and if so, what cost? These questions constitute the underlying core of a fragmented, largely unac- knowledged, but essentially unified approach to the study of democratic change, an approach that focuses on the "consequences of democratiza-

The Consequences of Democratization

It is commonly assumed that the advent of democracy tends to bring about social welfare improvements. Few studies, however, have examined empirically the impact of third-wave democratisation processes on social policies in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Through a diachronic comparison, this paper examines the effects of Ghana's democratisation process on the evolution of its health policy. It shows that the emergence of democratic competition played an important role in the recent adoption of a crucial health reform. A policy feedback effect on politics and a process of international policy diffusion were additional but secondary factors.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0022278X11000255

Giovanni Carbone

Papers

Emerging pluralist politics in mozambique: the frelimo- renamo party system

No-Party Democracy?: Ugandan Politics in Comparative Perspective

Continuidade na renovação? Ten years of multiparty politics in Mozambique: roots, evolution and stabilisation of the Frelimo–Renamo party system

The Consequences of Democratization

Democratic demands and social policies: the politics of health reform in Ghana