â€¢ 1. Models for predicting the distribution of organisms from environmental data are widespread in ecology and conservation biology. Their performance is invariably evaluated from the percentage success at predicting occurrence at test locations.
â€¢ 2. Using logistic regression with real data from 34 families of aquatic invertebrates in 180 Himalayan streams, we illustrate how this widespread measure of predictive accuracy is affected systematically by the prevalence (i.e. the frequency of occurrence) of the target organism. Many evaluations of presenceâ€“absence models by ecologists are inherently misleading.
â€¢ 3. With the same invertebrate models, we examined alternative performance measures used in remote sensing and medical diagnostics. We particularly explored receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots, from which were derived (i) the area under each curve (AUC), considered an effective indicator of model performance independent of the threshold probability at which the presence of the target organism is accepted, and (ii) optimized probability thresholds that maximize the percentage of true absences and presences that are correctly identified. We also evaluated Cohen's kappa, a measure of the proportion of all possible cases of presence or absence that are predicted correctly after accounting for chance effects.
â€¢ 4. AUC measures from ROC plots were independent of prevalence, but highly significantly correlated with the much more easily computed kappa. Moreover, when applied in predictive mode to test data, models with thresholds optimized by ROC erroneously overestimated true occurrence among scarcer organisms, often those of greatest conservation interest. We advocate caution in using ROC methods to optimize thresholds required for real prediction.
â€¢ 5. Our strongest recommendation is that ecologists reduce their reliance on prediction success as a performance measure in presenceâ€“absence modelling. Cohen's kappa provides a simple, effective, standardized and appropriate statistic for evaluating or comparing presenceâ€“absence models, even those based on different statistical algorithms. None of the performance measures we examined tests the statistical significance of predictive accuracy, and we identify this as a priority area for research and development.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1046/j.1365-2664.2001.00647.x

Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence

Our aim in this study was to determine how well phenotypic variation in foliar concentrations of carbon-based secondary compounds (CBSCs) in woody plants can be predicted on the basis of two resource-based hypotheses, i.e. the carbon-nutrient balance (CNB) and growth-differentiation balance (GDB) hypotheses. We conducted a meta-analysis of literature data with respect to responses of CBSCs, carbohydrates and nitrogen to six types of environmental manipulations (fertilization with nitrogen or phosphorus, shading, CO 2 enrichment, drought stress, ozone exposure). Plant responses to nitrogen fertilization, shading and CO 2 enrichment in terms of pooled CBSCs and carbohydrates were consistent with predictions made with the two hypotheses. However, among biosynthetically distinct groups of CBSCs only concentrations of phenylpropanoid-derived compounds changed as predicted; hydrolyzable tannins and terpenoids, in particular, were less responsive. Phosphorus fertilization did not affect concentrations of CBSC or primary metabolites. Plant responses to drought and ozone exposure presumably were driven by plant demands for particular types of compounds (osmolites in the case of drought and antioxidants in the case of ozone exposure) rather than by changes in resource availability. Based on the relative importance of the treatment effects, we propose a hierarchical model of carbon allocation to CBSCs. The model implies that CBSC production is determined by both resource availability and specific demand-side responses. However, these two mechanisms work at different hierarchical levels. The domain of the CNB and GDB hypotheses is at the high hierarchical levels, predicting the total amount of carbon that can be allocated to CBSCs. Predicting altered concentrations of individual CBSCs, i.e. low hierarchy levels, probably demands biosynthetically detailed models which also take into account the history of plant interactions with biotic and abiotic factors.

Regulation of Woody Plant Secondary Metabolism by Resource Availability: Hypothesis Testing by Means of Meta-Analysis

Neonate Lepidoptera are confronted with the daunting task of establishing themselves on a food plant. The factors relevant to this process need to be considered at spatial and temporal scales relevant to the larva and not the investigator. Neonates have to cope with an array of plant surface characters as well as internal characters once the integument is ruptured. These characters, as well as microclimatic conditions, vary within and between plant modules and interact with larval feeding requirements, strongly affecting movement behavior, which may be extensive even for such small organisms. In addition to these factors, there is an array of predators, pathogens, and parasitoids with which first instars must contend. Not surprisingly, mortality in neonates is high but can vary widely. Experimental and manipulative studies, as well as detailed observations of the animal, are vital if the subtle interaction of factors responsible for this high and variable mortality are to be understood. These studies are essential for an understanding of theories linking female oviposition behavior with larval survival, plant defense theory, and population dynamics, as well as modern crop resistance breeding programs.

Ecology and behavior of first instar larval lepidoptera

In mammals, cadmium is widely considered as a non-genotoxic carcinogen acting through a methylation-dependent epigenetic mechanism. Here, the effects of Cd treatment on the DNA methylation patten are examined together with its effect on chromatin reconfiguration in Posidonia oceanica. DNA methylation level and pattern were analysed in actively growing organs, under short- (6 h) and long- (2 d or 4 d) term and low (10 mM) and high (50 mM) doses of Cd, through a Methylation-Sensitive Amplification Polymorphism technique and an immunocytological approach, respectively. The expression of one member of the CHROMOMETHYLASE (CMT) family, a DNA methyltransferase, was also assessed by qRT-PCR. Nuclear chromatin ultrastructure was investigated by transmission electron microscopy. Cd treatment induced a DNA hypermethylation, as well as an up-regulation of CMT, indicating that de novo methylation did indeed occur. Moreover, a high dose of Cd led to a progressive heterochromatinization of interphase nuclei and apoptotic figures were also observed after long-term treatment. The data demonstrate that Cd perturbs the DNA methylation status through the involvement of a specific methyltransferase. Such changes are linked to nuclear chromatin reconfiguration likely to establish a new balance of expressed/repressed chromatin. Overall, the data show an epigenetic basis to the mechanism underlying Cd toxicity in plants.

/pdf/in-posidonia-oceanica-cadmium-induces-changes-in-dna-3cu7uj83mr.pdf

In Posidonia oceanica cadmium induces changes in DNA methylation and chromatin patterning

Habitat complexity is one of the most important factors structuring biotic assemblages, yet we still lack basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Although it is one of the primary targets in conservation management, no methods are available for comparing complexity across ecosystems, and system-specific qualitative assessment predominates. Despite its overwhelming importance for faunal diversity and abundance, there has been surprisingly little interest in examining its effects on other community and ecosystem attributes. We discuss possibilities of such effects, outlining potentially fruitful areas for future research, and argue that complexity may be implicated in community persistence and ecosystem stability by acting as a decoupling mechanism in predator–prey interactions. We provide a brief overview of methods used to quantify complexity in different ecosystems, highlighting contributions of the current issue of Hydrobiologia, and discuss potential application of these approaches for cross-ecosystem comparisons. Better understanding of the role of habitat complexity resulting from such comparisons is critically important for preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem function in an era of unprecedented habitat loss.

/pdf/habitat-complexity-approaches-and-future-directions-1s64txnf3y.pdf

Habitat complexity: approaches and future directions

1. The spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid by herbivorous insects is a crucial component of herbivore population stability, as it influences overall mortality within the population. Thus an ecologist studying populations of an endangered butterfly can do little to increase its numbers through habitat management without knowledge of its egg-laying patterns across individual host-plants under different habitat management regimes. At the other end of the spectrum, a knowledge of egg-laying behaviour can do much to control pest outbreaks by disrupting egg distributions that lead to rapid population growth. 2. The distribution of egg batches of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer on acacia trees was monitored in 21 habitats during 2 years in coastal Australia. The presence of egg batches on acacias was affected by host-tree 'quality' (tree size and foliar chemistry that led to increased caterpillar survival) and host-tree 'apparency' (the amount of vegetation surrounding host-trees). 3. In open homogeneous habitats, more egg batches were laid on high-quality trees, increasing potential population growth. In diverse mixed-species habitats, more egg batches were laid on low-quality highly apparent trees, reducing population growth and so reducing the potential for unstable population dynamics. The aggregation of batches on small apparent trees in diverse habitats led to outbreaks on these trees year after year, even when population levels were low, while site-wide outbreaks were rare. 4. These results predict that diverse habitats with mixed plant species should increase insect aggregation and increase population stability. In contrast, in open disturbed habitats or in regular plantations, where egg batches are more evenly distributed across high-quality hosts, populations should be more unstable, with site-wide outbreaks and extinctions being more common. 5. Mixed planting should be used on habitat regeneration sites to increase the population stability of immigrating or reintroduced insect species. Mixed planting also increases the diversity of resources, leading to higher herbivore species richness. With regard to the conservation of single species, different practices of habitat management will need to be employed depending on whether a project is concerned with methods of rapidly increasing the abundance of an endangered insect or concerned with the maintenance of a stable, established insect population that is perhaps endemic to an area. Suggestions for habitat management in these different cases are discussed. 6. Finally, intercropping can be highly effective in reducing pest outbreaks, although the economic gains of reduced pest attack may be outweighed by reduced crop yields in mixed-crop systems.

Habitat structure and egg distributions in the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer: lessons for conservation and pest management

Brachypelma, a genus of nine endangered tarantula species in Mexico, is the only group of spiders included in Appendix II of CITES, owing to habitat degradation and illegal trafficking. However, while the majority of the nine species of Brachypelma are thought to be threatened, little is known of their ecology and distribution. Brachypelma klaasi is the rarest species, occurring in a few isolated populations on the Pacific coast of Mexico. We present an analysis of population distribution and micro-habitat requirements of B. klaasi over different spatial scales within the biological reserve at Chamela, Jalisco as part of a wider ecological study of the endangered Brachypelma group. Burrows and dispersing spiders were confined to a southern area of the reserve covering approximately 0.5 km2. Within this area, burrows were not aggregated at lower spatial scales (24–216 m2), unlike other related species. Also, there was no evidence that intra-specific interactions (either positive or negative interactions) influenced the distribution of burrows. Distribution of burrows at low spatial scales was related to low afternoon temperatures and high humidity in mid-summer. These abiotic factors may influence the survival and development of eggs and spiderlings, and appear to be more important in governing the distribution of B. klaasi than are food resources or intra-specific interactions. We discuss how these findings may facilitate the re-introduction of captive-bred individuals of B. klaasi and other Brachypelma species.

Spatial distribution and habitat preference of the endangered tarantula, Brachypelma klaasi (Araneae: Theraphosidae) in Mexico

1. At the end of November in subtropical areas of Australia, second-instar larvae of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae) initiate feeding on the peripheral shoots of acacias (first-instar larvae do not feed). Field surveys at ten localities in south-east Queensland showed that larval survival was highly variable both among and within localities. Within-locality variation in larval growth was low compared with variation among localities. Larval growth and survival rates were higher at coastal and island localities, where November rainfall was high, than at drier inland localities.



2. Potted Acacia concurrens were grown in the greenhouse under high and low watering regimes, with and without nitrogen-rich fertilizer. Plant vigour (height, foliar water content and quantity of flush growth) was significantly greater in high-water treatments than in low-water treatments. Watering also affected foliar nitrogen, with plants in the high-water/no fertilizer treatment having similar nitrogen levels to those in fertilized treatments. Fertilizer increased foliar nitrogen levels of plants in low-water treatments and increased the number of shoots in high-water treatments. Different treatments had no effect on leaf toughness. After the first 3 weeks of feeding, size and survival of larvae were significantly reduced on the small, less vigorous plants in low water treatments. These results do not support the plant stress hypothesis.



3. Early-instar larvae (instar II–IV) developed more quickly and grew larger when reared on flush leaves than when reared on senescent leaves of A. concurrens. As water uptake affects the quantity of flush growth available to early stage larvae as well as foliar quality, rainfall and water availability may have important consequences for the distribution and population dynamics of the moth at local and regional scales.

Rainfall, nitrogen and host plant condition: consequences for the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer

In the past century, the debate over whether or not density-dependent factors regulate populations has generally focused on changes in mean population density, ignoring the spatial variance around the mean as unimportant noise. In an attempt to provide a different framework for understanding population dynamics based on individual fitness, this paper discusses the crucial role of spatial variability itself on the stability of insect populations. The advantages of this method are the following: (1) it is founded on evolutionary principles rather than post hoc assumptions; (2) it erects hypotheses that can be tested; and (3) it links disparate ecological schools, including spatial dynamics, behavioral ecology, preference-performance, and plant apparency into an overall framework. At the core of this framework, habitat complexity governs insect spatial variance. which in turn determines population stability. First, the minimum risk distribution (MRD) is defined as the spatial distribution of individuals that results in the minimum number of premature deaths in a population given the distribution of mortality risk in the habitat (and, therefore, leading to maximized population growth). The greater the divergence of actual spatial patterns of individuals from the MRD, the greater the reduction of population growth and size from high, unstable levels. Then, based on extensive data from 29 populations of the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer, four steps are used to test the effect of habitat interference on population growth rates. (1) The costs (increasing the risk of scramble competition) and benefits (decreasing the risk of inverse density-dependent predation) of egg and larval aggregation are quantified. (2) These costs and benefits, along with the distribution of resources, are used to construct the MRD for each habitat. (3) The MRD is used as a benchmark against which the actual spatial pattern of individuals is compared. The degree of divergence of the actual spatial pattern from the MRD is quantified for each of the 29 habitats. (4) Finally, indices of habitat complexity are used to provide highly accurate predictions of spatial divergence from the MRD, showing that habitat interference reduces population growth rates from high, unstable levels. The reason for the divergence appears to be that high levels of background vegetation (vegetation other than host plants) interfere with female host-searching behavior. This leads to a spatial distribution of egg batches with high mortality risk, and therefore lower population growth. Knowledge of the MRD in other species should be a highly effective means of predicting trends in population dynamics. Species with high divergence between their actual spatial distribution and their MRD may display relatively stable dynamics at low population levels. In contrast, species with low divergence should experience high levels of intragenerational population growth leading to frequent habitat-wide outbreaks and unstable dynamics in the long term. Six hypotheses, erected under the framework of spatial interference, are discussed, and future tests are suggested.

https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:60878/UQ60878_OA.pdf

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and “minimum risk distribution”: a framework for population stability

Populations of Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer display different larval behaviours (ground-nesting and canopy-nesting), suggesting the existence of two or more species. Here, the behaviour and biology of ground-nesting populations are described from extensive surveys in southeastern Queensland. Females oviposit at the base of the host tree, covering the eggs with scales from the anal tuft. The larvae are processionary and pass through eight instars. First instars do not feed, remaining at the base of the tree trunk within the scale mass. Second instars ascend the tree in single file in the morning to feed in the canopy each day, returning to the scale mass after several hours. Later instars feed only at night. Six new host plants are recorded: five species of Acacia, and one species of Casuarina. Predators and parasitoids recorded on O. lunifer included chalcidoids, dermestids, tachinids and a predatory pyrrhocorid bug. The results of the study highlight a number of major differences between ground-nesting and canopy-nesting populations. Differences include habitat and geographical distribution; host plant range; number of instars; size and colour of final instar; size of adult female; oviposition site and larval behaviour. These differences provide further evidence for the existence of two species.

Life History Comparisons of Ground- and Canopy-Nesting populations of Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schäffer (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae): Evidence for Two Species?

Graham J. Floater

Papers

Habitat structure and egg distributions in the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer: lessons for conservation and pest management

Spatial distribution and habitat preference of the endangered tarantula, Brachypelma klaasi (Araneae: Theraphosidae) in Mexico

Rainfall, nitrogen and host plant condition: consequences for the processionary caterpillar, Ochrogaster lunifer

Habitat complexity, spatial interference, and “minimum risk distribution”: a framework for population stability

Life History Comparisons of Ground- and Canopy-Nesting populations of Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schäffer (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae): Evidence for Two Species?